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# Dumb Money: Should I Pick My Own Stocks?

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## Video: Dumb Money: Should I Pick My Own Stocks?

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_Published 2016-10-12. Taylor Tepper explains why you probably aren't as good as Warren Buffett at picking stocks._


---

Jul 27, 2023 8:57 PM UTC

---

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---


## Transcript

Today on Dumb Money should I pick my own stocks? I'm here to answer the money questions that you think are too silly, stupid, or scart to ask. I'm Taylor Tepper and this is Dumb Money. Are you Warren Buffet? Are you a magic elf? Stay away from stock picking unless you answered yes to either one of those questions. [ INAUDIBLE ] [ LAUGH ] When you invest, you're making a bet, either you think you can do better than the market, or you don't. If you think you can do better, you pick a bunch of stocks that you believe will go gang busters. If you don't, you put your money in an index fund that mirrors a huge benchmark, the S & P 500, so you end up owning a little bit of a lot of companies.

Research shows that humility is by far the smarter bet. Let's look at 2015 stock returns as an example. Only 34 % of mutual fund mangers that invest in big companies, did better than the market. Thirty- four percent and these are professionals. They're working full time and beating the market. [ NOISE ]. What are you doing? [ NOISE ] And still two thirds of them failed. If you're an amateur, your success rate will be even worse. You have a bunch of options to do instead but one solid choice is to invest in a low cost target date fund, a TDF. One good selection for young workers is the vanguard target 2050 retirement fund.

You'll get a diversified set of index, stock and bond funds for cheap. And that mix will be age appropriate. When you're younger it will be dominated by stocks, which have a higher return over the long run. And as you get older the mix will automatically change to have more bonds, to give you more protection against losses and preserve your hard- earned savings. Thanks, If you really, really, really, really, really, really, really wanna take on a flier of the next Facebook or Apple. Fine, I can't stop you, just make sure you only do 5 % of your portfolio. If you going to lose money, make sure you lose small.

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