--- title: Are US Troops Leaving Afghanistan Prematurely? | TIME description: The potential effects of the US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan are analyzed in this installment of Command Post canonical: https://time.com/video/VclhdXCs/ og:title: Are US Troops Leaving Afghanistan Prematurely? og:description: The potential effects of the US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan are analyzed in this installment of Command Post og:url: https://time.com/video/VclhdXCs/ og:image: https://cdn.jwplayer.com/v2/media/VclhdXCs/poster.jpg?width=720 og:type: video.other twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Are US Troops Leaving Afghanistan Prematurely? twitter:description: The potential effects of the US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan are analyzed in this installment of Command Post twitter:image: https://cdn.jwplayer.com/v2/media/VclhdXCs/poster.jpg?width=720 --- # Are US Troops Leaving Afghanistan Prematurely? > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. 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They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. ## Video: Are US Troops Leaving Afghanistan Prematurely? [Watch (HLS stream): Are US Troops Leaving Afghanistan Prematurely?](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/VclhdXCs.m3u8) (4:46)  _Published 2011-10-17. The potential effects of the US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan are analyzed in this installment of Command Post_ --- Jul 27, 2023 3:18 PM UTC --- ## More From This Series [All Videos](https://time.com/video/) [US to Start Troop Pullback in Afghanistan](/video/d8Gn8MH6/) ### US to Start Troop Pullback in Afghanistan [Obama Will Leave 8,400 U.S. Troops In Afghanistan ](/video/SUtdrCOz/) ### Obama Will Leave 8,400 U.S. Troops In Afghanistan [Last Australia Troops to Leave Afghanistan](/video/RNAIgkrc/) ### Last Australia Troops to Leave Afghanistan --- ## Transcript [ MUSIC ] This is Command Post, a series of discussions about military matters from Time and the Center for a New American Security. Steve, we've reached the, the high point of the American troop presence in Afghanistan. We're already starting to withdraw. Given the situation on the ground there, the political events in the region. Is that draw down starting to look premature? The real issue it seems to me is what do you give up in security terms when you start the draw down and how does that fit into the larger plan you have for bringing about some sort of result to this thing that you can live with? One logic is we're gonna hand off an ongoing war to an Afghan partner who will carry on after we're gone. The other logic is that we're going to pursue a negotiated settlement with Taliban. And we're going to at least take some of the major combatant factions on the other side off the battlefield. If the idea is the first one, then I'm very concerned that the way we're dealing with draw down right now is gonna undermine our prospects. We insist on attaching calendar deadlines, that are unconditional, and unrelated to anything that anybody does. Anything that the Karsai government does, anything that the Taliban do. And what that does, is to feed into a wide spread perception in the region That the United States lacks the gumption to stay long enough to solve the problem, will therefore leave prematurely, and the result will be a Karzai government collapse. So the American narrative that, that's being sent by our actions and by our public statements Actually makes it harder for us to accomplish the objectives we say we are trying to accomplish. I think it does to an even greater degree than the actual policy does. Brandy, do you agree with that? Do you think we are sending messages through our statements and our announced withdrawal dates that make it less likely that we'll be able to achieve Reasonable outcome in Afghanistan? Well I think we, we send mixed messages from different voices in the United States. We heard not only this concern about transition, we also heard an altnerative narrative that continues to be delivered of the great game. That the United States is actually not leaving, you need us more than we need you. So there's this counter narrative that is often delivered by Members of Congress when we have [ INAUDIBLE ] And, and because the Members of Congress come through and say what they believe, which may and may not be what the Administration [ INAUDIBLE ] Absolutely. And at, earlier point earlier this year, there was this clear sense that we again, Hamid Kasei thinks that we need him more than he needs us and that's absolutely ridiculous. If we're sending that message, it actually harms us. Because it doesn't force our Afghan partners to shape up their act. But leverage in Afghanistan requires a fulcrum. And our fulcrum in Afghanistan is the Karzai government. Right. Is that a stable fulcrum on which to build a policy, or are we just building something on a foundation of sand? We're. Expending a lot of national resources. But we don't have that seriousness of commitment and purpose from our partner whether it's [ INAUDIBLE ] or the whole institutional infrastructure there. My big worry is that we come to the end of 2014, 2015 and we may have built up security forces in Afghanistan, but there won't be a state to defend itself. But that's the wrong way to think about it. You never have a partner in counter- insurgency who is George Washington in the continental congress. If you did, you wouldn't have an insurgency! I mean, there's a reason why we don't do a lot of counter- insurgency in Switzerland. If you're going to succeed, if anyone has ever succeeded in the history of counter- insurgency It's by using leverage to change the behavior of the host government to create a partner that can succeed. And when it comes to the way we approach the war, what that requires is a political strategy to complement our security campaign plan, to create an alternative to the Taliban that can actually command enough of the population's loyalty that we can get a stable outcome to this thing. We have to convince them that if they reform in the way we want to which involves sizable risk for them we will support them and they will survive. If all you do is talk about the deadline by which 30, 000 troops will be out, followed by the deadline of which the rest of the troops will be out, followed by the path, the glide path to minimum investment in the country.. You're not giving them any investment, any reason to change? You're giving them no reason to take risks to reform. The executive branch of the government, speaking officially from the United States government to the government of Afghanistan has to speak with one voice. And it has to portray a clear impression of what we're after. That discourages misperceptions of our intent and our purpose, which are currently rife. In [ INAUDIBLE ]. [ MUSIC ]. ```json {"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"VideoObject","name":"Are US Troops Leaving Afghanistan Prematurely?","description":"The potential effects of the US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan are analyzed in this installment of Command Post","thumbnailUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/v2/media/VclhdXCs/poster.jpg?width=720","uploadDate":"2011-10-17T16:21:14.000Z","contentUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/VclhdXCs.m3u8","embedUrl":"https://time.com/video/VclhdXCs/","duration":"PT4M46S","potentialAction":{"@type":"SeekToAction","target":"https://time.com/video/VclhdXCs/?jw_start={seek_to_second_number}","startOffset-input":"required name=seek_to_second_number"}} ```