--- title: College Football Playoff Odds After Historic Week 7 Upsets description: Five of college football's top seven teams lost in Week 7. See what Kalshi's playoff odds reveal about Georgia, Miami, Notre Dame, and the national championship race. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/winners-and-losers-from-college-football-s-historic-day-of-upsets/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-10-19T23:14:38.037Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-19T23:14:31.579Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: College Football Playoff Odds After Historic Week 7 Upsets og:description: Five of college football's top seven teams lost in Week 7. See what Kalshi's playoff odds reveal about Georgia, Miami, Notre Dame, and the national championship race. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/winners-and-losers-from-college-football-s-historic-day-of-upsets/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt09529b4520155f4e/6ad536c1b360bffa8d3acd89/GettyImages-2300220247.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2300220247.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: College Football Playoff Odds After Historic Week 7 Upsets twitter:description: Five of college football's top seven teams lost in Week 7. See what Kalshi's playoff odds reveal about Georgia, Miami, Notre Dame, and the national championship race. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt09529b4520155f4e/6ad536c1b360bffa8d3acd89/GettyImages-2300220247.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # College Football's Best Teams Picked a Good Week to Lose > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Subscription: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition TIME is a general-interest news organization founded in 1923, reporting on the people, ideas and issues shaping the world. A TIME subscription provides full access to that journalism in print and digital, from $20 a year, and can be cancelled at any time. 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Its journalism is reported and edited by a professional newsroom led by Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs, with named correspondents on politics, climate, health, technology and culture. It reaches 1 million US print subscribers and 1.15 million globally, plus more than 1.1 million newsletter readers. #### How do I subscribe to TIME magazine? Subscriptions are at time.com/subscribe-agent. Choose digital only at $20 a year, or print and digital from $29 a year or $49 for two years. TIME also publishes seven free email newsletters at time.com/newsletters, which do not require a subscription. #### Can I cancel a TIME subscription? Yes. TIME states that subscriptions can be cancelled at any time. #### Does TIME have free newsletters? Yes. TIME publishes seven free email newsletters reaching more than 1.1 million readers, covering daily news, Washington politics, health, AI, climate and energy, culture, and the newsroom itself. They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-sub-2026q3/newsletters?i=fec797fe-f12f-4a9f-aabb-dbf70e31b5bb&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) * TIME Subscriptions: [time.com/subscribe-agent](/c/time-sub-2026q3/subscribe?i=fec797fe-f12f-4a9f-aabb-dbf70e31b5bb&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Oct 19, 2026 11:14 PM UTC  Auburn Tigers kicker Alex McPherson (38) makes the game winning kick during the college football game between the Auburn Tigers and Georgia Bulldogs at Sanford Stadium in Athens, GA on October 17, 2026. Auburn Tigers kicker Alex McPherson (38) makes the game winning kick during the college football game between the Auburn Tigers and Georgia Bulldogs at Sanford Stadium in Athens, GA on October 17, 2026. John Adams—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Oct 19, 2026 11:14 PM UTC Georgia head coach Kirby Smart would [never admit it](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XuWmQBJteLc), but he probably felt better after checking the ESPN ticker Saturday night. His Bulldogs had just blown a 14-point lead against unranked Auburn, ending a streak of [195 consecutive wins](https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/%5F/id/50205292/auburn-stuns-georgia-stockton-fumble-dooms-bulldogs) for AP No. 1 teams in that position. On a college football Saturday that did everything but separate the contenders from the pretenders, Georgia managed to collapse as a 20.5-point home favorite and escape as the national championship favorite. For the first time in regular-season history, [five of the top seven teams in the AP Top 25 lost on the same day](https://apnews.com/article/college-football-af846a30c4d75e085ad8bdd7da9fd7b1). Those programs—Georgia, Notre Dame, Indiana, Alabama, and Texas—entered the weekend a combined 27-2, and four of them were favored by at least a touchdown on Saturday. [Alabama lost consecutive regular-season games](https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/%5F/id/50205434/no-14-tennessee-hands-no-6-alabama-second-straight-loss) for the first time since the Bush administration. Indiana's 22-game winning streak was snapped by Ohio State, the only team that has a regular-season win over the Curt Cignetti-era Hoosiers. And Texas quarterback Arch Manning, once the [frontrunner](https://kalshi.com/category/sports/football/nfl/draft) to go No. 1 overall in the 2027 NFL Draft, is now [favored](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxncaafdraftdeclare/players-to-declare-for-the-nfl-draft/kxncaafdraftdeclare-27aman) to stay in school. For just the fifth time since the AP poll expanded to 25 teams in 1989, [every team in the top 25 changed positions after Saturday]( For just the fifth time since the AP Poll expanded to 25 teams in 1989, every team in the top 25 changed positions after Saturday,), and the AP voters weren't the only ones left reconsidering their positions. The five games featuring top-seven losses drew more than $178 million in trading volume on Kalshi, and the 16 games involving ranked teams drew roughly $310 million. For comparison, Kalshi's college football national championship market generated [$191 million](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxncaaf/ncaaf-championship/kxncaaf-26?op%5Fmarket%5Fticker=KXNCAAF-26-IND) in trading volume across all of last season. So who wins when most everybody loses? The College Football Playoff market suggests one contender picked an excellent week to have a bad one, and several others are discovering the advantages of collective underachievement. ## College Football Playoff Odds Below are the [2026 College Football Playoff odds](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxncaafplayoff/college-football-playoff-qualifiers/kxncaafplayoff-26), per Kalshi.  For the first time since 2002, the [Miami Hurricanes are No. 1 in the AP poll](https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/%5F/id/50211687/miami-climbs-1-byu-2-chaotic-week-upends-top-25), which makes zero sense for those who only caught the Miami-Florida State rivalry game on Saturday. The Hurricanes entered as a massive [21.5-point favorite](https://www.covers.com/ncaaf/florida-state-vs-miami-prediction-picks-odds-best-bets-tonight-oct-17-2026) but instead went literal [touchdown for touchdown](https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/%5F/gameId/401858263/florida-st-miami) with the Seminoles until prevailing in double overtime. It was an ugly win against an unranked team. In most other weeks, Miami would have likely dropped in the rankings as a result. We saw that happen in Week 4 with Indiana, who beat Northwestern by six points as a three-touchdown favorite and ultimately fell one spot in the AP poll. Miami instead climbed from No. 3 to No. 1 in the rankings—a rare week in which "a win is a win" applies to college football.  Miami now has the second-highest chance of winning the national championship, lagging only Georgia, and the highest chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff, at 94%. Of the 25 teams ranked in the [preseason AP poll](https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll), only four remain undefeated: Miami, Texas Tech, Utah, and BYU. BYU quarterback [Bear Bachmeier became the first player in the past 30 years](https://byucougars.com/news/2026/10/17/byu-vs-notre-dame) to record a passing, rushing, and receiving touchdown in a single game against a top-five opponent in Saturday's 28-24 win over Notre Dame. [Notre Dame has now lost nine consecutive road games against top-10 opponents](https://www.ncaa.com/live-updates/football/fbs/college-football-week-7-recaps-highlights-rankings-and-scores), dating back to 2012\. One trend has finally been bucked: the latest excuse for a Notre Dame road loss originated outside South Bend. The Irish were in the red zone, trailing by four points, when the clock expired on Saturday. After the game, the Big 12 determined that "[time remained on the clock when the ball hit the ground and the play was incorrectly cleared by the replay officiating crew](https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/%5F/id/50208529/big-12-admits-error-says-notre-dame-had-one-more-play)," meaning CJ Carr and Co. should have had the opportunity to fire off one more potential game-winning play. Notre Dame's visit to Provo was its only chance of picking up a win against a ranked opponent on the road this season. The Irish's chances of qualifying for the College Football Playoff have dropped from 93% to 78%, but they still have the fifth-best playoff odds in the country. Georgia, Indiana, and Alabama are each still favored to make the postseason, too. Texas, at 36%, is the only one of the five losing contenders now considered more likely to miss the playoff than make it. Week 7 taught some programs that they can fail their biggest road test, so long as that test is graded on a curve. Just don't count on any retakes. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: The Valkyries Are Four Wins From Making Expansion History](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/golden-state-is-four-wins-from-making-expansion-history/)  ### The Valkyries Are Four Wins From Making Expansion History [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/golden-state-is-four-wins-from-making-expansion-history/) [Open article: Predicting the 2027 Grammy Nominations](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/predicting-the-2027-grammy-nominations/)  ### Predicting the 2027 Grammy Nominations [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/predicting-the-2027-grammy-nominations/) [Open article: Brock Purdy Is Beating the System](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/brock-purdy-is-beating-the-system/)  ### Brock Purdy Is Beating the System [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/brock-purdy-is-beating-the-system/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/winners-and-losers-from-college-football-s-historic-day-of-upsets/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/winners-and-losers-from-college-football-s-historic-day-of-upsets/"},"headline":"College Football's Best Teams Picked a Good Week to Lose","datePublished":"2026-10-19T23:14:38.037Z","dateModified":"2026-10-19T23:14:31.579Z","description":"Five of college football's top seven teams lost on the same Saturday. 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