--- title: U.S. Open Odds After Ben Shelton Upsets Carlos Alcaraz description: Ben Shelton stunned defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in a record-late U.S. Open quarterfinal. Here's how the upset reshaped the men's title odds. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-us-open-wakes-up-to-ben-shelton/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-09-09T20:49:03.038Z article:modified_time: 2026-09-09T20:48:49.788Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: U.S. Open Odds After Ben Shelton Upsets Carlos Alcaraz og:description: Ben Shelton stunned defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in a record-late U.S. Open quarterfinal. Here's how the upset reshaped the men's title odds. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-us-open-wakes-up-to-ben-shelton/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt27f06ccec9970ceb/6aa1758ab3e3cbb194d5768a/GettyImages-2293733361.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2293733361.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: U.S. Open Odds After Ben Shelton Upsets Carlos Alcaraz twitter:description: Ben Shelton stunned defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in a record-late U.S. Open quarterfinal. Here's how the upset reshaped the men's title odds. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt27f06ccec9970ceb/6aa1758ab3e3cbb194d5768a/GettyImages-2293733361.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # The U.S. Open Wakes Up to Ben Shelton > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Subscription: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition TIME is a general-interest news organization founded in 1923, reporting on the people, ideas and issues shaping the world. A TIME subscription provides full access to that journalism in print and digital, from $20 a year, and can be cancelled at any time. 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They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Sep 9, 2026 8:49 PM UTC  USA's Ben Shelton (R) shakes hands with Spain's Carlos Alcaraz after winning the men's singles quarter-final tennis match on day ten of the US Open tennis tournament at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York City on September 9, 2026. USA's Ben Shelton (R) shakes hands with Spain's Carlos Alcaraz after winning the men's singles quarter-final tennis match on day ten of the US Open tennis tournament at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York City on September 9, 2026. Leonardo Munoz—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Sep 9, 2026 8:49 PM UTC The match did not start until 11:05 p.m. local time. It was a reasonable time to go to bed. Even more reasonable to assume Carlos Alcaraz, a 75% favorite, would be playing for a spot in the final come Friday. That was the last time any of us will sleep on Ben Shelton. Shelton and Alcaraz's U.S. Open quarterfinal was the [latest-finishing match in tournament history](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/us-open-latest-finishes-in-history). The match lasted four hours and 28 minutes. The favorite changed 15 times. By 3:27 a.m., the market swung with Alcaraz: at 78%, he was a bigger favorite than he had been at first serve. Six minutes later, Shelton had stunned the defending champion, taking five of the final six points in the fifth-set tiebreak and punctuating the upset with a [146-mph ace.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9cUxFU9b%5FE)  Kalshi's Shelton vs. Alcaraz market drew $49.6 million in trading volume, more than the men's and women's U.S. Open singles winner markets combined—futures that have been open since before the draw. One overnight match out-traded them both, offering a clear measure of just how much expectation Shelton overturned. Six minutes before he pulled off the upset, the market still considered Alcaraz more likely to win the entire U.S. Open than Shelton was to beat him. Shelton's night—or early morning—ended with him [asking his sister's employer](https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/tennis/open/2026/09/09/trinity-rodman-ben-shelton-post-match-us-open-omission/91672048007/) to give her the day off work. He had already cleared Alcaraz's schedule. Alcaraz entered Tuesday night with a 57% implied probability of winning the U.S. Open. The title market has been completely repriced, and the home crowd now has a real chance to witness the [end of a 23-year drought](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-us-open-is-back-on-the-market/). Friday will send one American home and another to the final. Whoever survives will play for a chance to become the first American on the men's side to win the U.S. Open—or any major—since 2003\. But the other half of the draw may send through the only player not named Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz to win a major in the past three seasons—a player the market now considers the new tournament favorite. ## U.S. Open Men's Tournament Odds Below are the [odds for the 2026 U.S. Open men's singles tournament,](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxatp/mens-tournament-winner/kxatp-26uso) per Kalshi.  Shelton and Frances Tiafoe will compete in an all-American U.S. Open semifinal on Friday. Alexander Zverev, Karen Khachanov, Alexander Blockx, and Botic van de Zandschulp play for the remaining semifinal spots today. Though six players remain, 92% of the title probability belongs to three of them. The market sees only three plausible champions: Zverev and whichever American may be waiting for him on Sunday. Zverev still has to get through his quarterfinal match, but his odds—an 86% chance to advance to the semifinal, 68% to advance to the final, and 44% to win the U.S. Open—imply he will be a clear favorite if he gets to Sunday, regardless of whether it's Shelton or Tiafoe on the other side of the net. Zverev has earned that status after winning this year's French Open and finishing runner-up at Wimbledon. He is the only remaining player who has won—or even reached the final of—a major singles tournament. Shelton lacks that resume. This is just his third semifinal appearance across 17 major tournaments. But his hard-court numbers suggest beating Alcaraz was no overnight success story. Shelton ranks seventh overall and sixth on hard courts in [Tennis Abstract](https://tennisabstract.com/reports/atp%5Felo%5Fratings.html)'s Elo ratings. He also owns the ATP's fourth-best year-to-date [hard-court winning percentage](https://www.atptour.com/en/stats/win-loss-index?indexCategory=hard&timeCategory=ytd&country=all&sortBy=index&sortDirection=desc), trailing only Sinner, Alcaraz, and Arthur Gea—and ranking 11 spots ahead of Tiafoe and four spots ahead of Zverev. Tuesday night taught everyone not to sleep on Shelton. On Sunday, he could wake American men's tennis from its 23-year slumber. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: NFL Season Opens With a Super Bowl Rematch](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nfl-season-starts-where-it-ended/)  ### NFL Season Opens With a Super Bowl Rematch [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nfl-season-starts-where-it-ended/) [Open article: The Oscars Start in Venice](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-oscars-start-in-venice/)  ### The Oscars Start in Venice [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-oscars-start-in-venice/) [Open article: Italy's 60-Year Wait Drives a Mercedes](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/italy-s-60-year-wait-drives-a-mercedes/)  ### Italy's 60-Year Wait Drives a Mercedes [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/italy-s-60-year-wait-drives-a-mercedes/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-us-open-wakes-up-to-ben-shelton/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-us-open-wakes-up-to-ben-shelton/"},"headline":"The U.S. Open Wakes Up to Ben Shelton","datePublished":"2026-09-09T20:49:03.038Z","dateModified":"2026-09-09T20:48:49.788Z","description":"One overnight upset sent the defending champion home, reset the title odds, and put an American one win from the U.S. Open final.","url":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-us-open-wakes-up-to-ben-shelton/","keywords":[],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt27f06ccec9970ceb/6aa1758ab3e3cbb194d5768a/GettyImages-2293733361.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Annie Nader","jobTitle":"Prediction Markets Analyst","url":"https://time.com/author/annie-nader/"}],"articleSection":"Prediction Markets","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt27f06ccec9970ceb/6aa1758ab3e3cbb194d5768a/GettyImages-2293733361.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"GettyImages-2293733361.jpg","caption":"","creditText":"Leonardo Munoz—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-us-open-wakes-up-to-ben-shelton/","name":"The U.S. Open Wakes Up to Ben Shelton"}}]}] ```