--- title: Next James Bond Odds: Jack Lowden Overtakes Callum Turner description: Jack Lowden surged from a 3.5% long shot to the favorite to become the next James Bond after a casting tip reshaped the race. Here's how the odds for the next 007 moved. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-rumor-that-repriced-the-bond-market/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-08-19T12:39:02.023Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-19T12:38:37.262Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: Next James Bond Odds: Jack Lowden Overtakes Callum Turner og:description: Jack Lowden surged from a 3.5% long shot to the favorite to become the next James Bond after a casting tip reshaped the race. Here's how the odds for the next 007 moved. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-rumor-that-repriced-the-bond-market/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltd5980eeb37f2f93c/6a83dc44ba658889ca12a243/GettyImages-2199994610.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2199994610.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Next James Bond Odds: Jack Lowden Overtakes Callum Turner twitter:description: Jack Lowden surged from a 3.5% long shot to the favorite to become the next James Bond after a casting tip reshaped the race. Here's how the odds for the next 007 moved. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltd5980eeb37f2f93c/6a83dc44ba658889ca12a243/GettyImages-2199994610.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # The Rumor That Repriced the Bond Market > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Subscription: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition TIME is a general-interest news organization founded in 1923, reporting on the people, ideas and issues shaping the world. A TIME subscription provides full access to that journalism in print and digital, from $20 a year, and can be cancelled at any time. 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They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Aug 19, 2026 12:39 PM UTC  Jack Lowden attends the 2025 EE BAFTA Film Awards at The Royal Festival Hall in London, England on February 16, 2025. Jack Lowden attends the 2025 EE BAFTA Film Awards at The Royal Festival Hall in London, England on February 16, 2025. Kate Green—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Aug 19, 2026 12:39 PM UTC The search for the next James Bond has become Hollywood's biggest casting cliffhanger. Nearly five years after _No Time to Die_, the tuxedo hangs unworn and the mission unresolved—officially, anyway. For months, every [reported audition](https://variety.com/2026/film/news/james-bond-tom-francis-audition-amazon-mgm-1236749910/) and vague industry quote turned into [odds](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-next-james-bond-license-to-speculate/) while Amazon MGM Studios kept the actual search under wraps. Prediction-market traders had two names atop the call sheet: Callum Turner had emerged as Daniel Craig's heir apparent, with Jacob Elordi waiting in the wings. Then a television presenter claimed to have intel on the casting search—and dropped a name traders had barely bothered to price. ## **Odds for the Next James Bond** Below are the [odds for who will be cast as the next James Bond](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbond/next-bond-actor/kxbond-30), per [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/).  On August 8, Jack Lowden, star of _Slow Horses,_ had only a 3.5% implied probability of being cast as the next James Bond. Then Richard Osman recorded an episode of his podcast. His remarks pushed Lowden's odds as high as 36%. In a [subscribers-only episode](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/james-bond-sex-spies-and-soggy-towels-ep1/id1718287198?i=1000782700712) of _The Rest Is Entertainment_, [Osman said](https://www.the-independent.com/arts-entertainment/films/news/james-bond-new-actor-jack-lowden-richard-osman-b3031520.html), "someone told me for definite who the next James Bond is," before adding, "the name I've heard is Jack Lowden." Osman later clarified that "it is definitively not a 'he's definitely got it' thing" while still describing Lowden as being "strongly considered." There were a lot of variations on "definite" being thrown around for a rumor that was supposedly anything but. Backtracking and double negatives muddled the message. Traders heard the name. Osman wrote the murder mystery series _The Thursday Murder Club_, whose film adaptation starred Pierce Brosnan, former 007 himself. The film was produced by Steven Spielberg, who appeared on Osman's podcast in June to recount how Cubby Broccoli [turned down his bid to direct a Bond film](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/steven-spielberg-rejected-direct-james-bond-movie-1236619950/). Whether any further Bond chatter traveled through those connections is pure speculation. The stronger tie belongs to Lowden. [Nina Gold is leading the casting search for Bond](https://variety.com/2026/film/news/james-bond-auditions-start-casting-director-nina-gold-1236749108/), and she has already tapped Lowden for spy duty. Gold [cast](https://www.backstage.com/magazine/article/greta-gerwig-narnia-casting-director-interview-nina-gold-80506/) him as intelligence agent River Cartwright in _Slow Horses,_ a role that has since earned him two Emmy nominations. Nothing is settled, but between Osman's tip and Gold's history with Lowden, traders have seen enough to put him ahead of Turner as the new favorite. Bond producer [Amy Pascal has called ](https://deadline.com/2026/08/spider-man-brand-new-day-amy-pascal-interview-1237016593/)the end of 2026 a "good bet" for a 007 casting announcement. Until then, traders will keep making theirs. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: The Oscars Start in Venice](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-oscars-start-in-venice/)  ### The Oscars Start in Venice [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-oscars-start-in-venice/) [Open article: Italy's 60-Year Wait Drives a Mercedes](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/italy-s-60-year-wait-drives-a-mercedes/)  ### Italy's 60-Year Wait Drives a Mercedes [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/italy-s-60-year-wait-drives-a-mercedes/) [Open article: What Prediction Markets Say About Every NFC Division](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nfc-s-divisions-dont-add-up/)  ### What Prediction Markets Say About Every NFC Division [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nfc-s-divisions-dont-add-up/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-rumor-that-repriced-the-bond-market/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-rumor-that-repriced-the-bond-market/"},"headline":"The Rumor That Repriced the Bond Market","datePublished":"2026-08-19T12:39:02.023Z","dateModified":"2026-08-19T12:38:37.262Z","description":"A podcast comment sent Jack Lowden from Bond long shot to market favorite, reshaping the race to become the next 007.","url":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-rumor-that-repriced-the-bond-market/","keywords":[],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltd5980eeb37f2f93c/6a83dc44ba658889ca12a243/GettyImages-2199994610.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Annie Nader","jobTitle":"Prediction Markets Analyst","url":"https://time.com/author/annie-nader/"}],"articleSection":"Prediction Markets","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltd5980eeb37f2f93c/6a83dc44ba658889ca12a243/GettyImages-2199994610.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"GettyImages-2199994610.jpg","caption":"","creditText":"Kate Green—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-rumor-that-repriced-the-bond-market/","name":"The Rumor That Repriced the Bond Market"}}]}] ```