--- title: Venice Film Festival and Oscar Odds: Wild Horse Nine Surges, Primetime and Robert Pattinson Next description: John Malkovich and Martin McDonagh surged in the 2027 Oscar odds after Wild Horse Nine premiered at the Venice Film Festival. Here's how the Venice Film Festival is moving the 2027 Oscar odds ahead of Primetime and Robert Pattinson's highly anticipated premiere. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-oscars-start-in-venice/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-09-04T21:09:19.119Z article:modified_time: 2026-09-04T21:08:30.438Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: Venice Film Festival and Oscar Odds: Wild Horse Nine Surges, Primetime and Robert Pattinson Next og:description: John Malkovich and Martin McDonagh surged in the 2027 Oscar odds after Wild Horse Nine premiered at the Venice Film Festival. Here's how the Venice Film Festival is moving the 2027 Oscar odds ahead of Primetime and Robert Pattinson's highly anticipated premiere. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-oscars-start-in-venice/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt65f291f9dc957e69/6a9a0620448ea6920e5978e3/GettyImages-2292759673.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2292759673.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Venice Film Festival and Oscar Odds: Wild Horse Nine Surges, Primetime and Robert Pattinson Next twitter:description: John Malkovich and Martin McDonagh surged in the 2027 Oscar odds after Wild Horse Nine premiered at the Venice Film Festival. Here's how the Venice Film Festival is moving the 2027 Oscar odds ahead of Primetime and Robert Pattinson's highly anticipated premiere. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt65f291f9dc957e69/6a9a0620448ea6920e5978e3/GettyImages-2292759673.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # The Oscars Start in Venice > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Subscription: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition TIME is a general-interest news organization founded in 1923, reporting on the people, ideas and issues shaping the world. A TIME subscription provides full access to that journalism in print and digital, from $20 a year, and can be cancelled at any time. 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They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Sep 4, 2026 9:09 PM UTC  Graham Broadbent, Steve Buscemi, Ailín Salas, Mariana Di Girolamo, John Malkovich, Sam Rockwell, Parker Posey and Martin McDonagh at the "Wild Horse Nine" premiere at The 83rd Venice International Film Festival at The 83rd Venice International Film Festival in Venice, Italy on September 3, 2026. Graham Broadbent, Steve Buscemi, Ailín Salas, Mariana Di Girolamo, John Malkovich, Sam Rockwell, Parker Posey and Martin McDonagh at the "Wild Horse Nine" premiere at The 83rd Venice International Film Festival at The 83rd Venice International Film Festival in Venice, Italy on September 3, 2026.Earl Gibson—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Sep 4, 2026 9:09 PM UTC Hollywood spends six months trying to spoil its own ending. Rotten Tomatoes scores, precursor awards, and campaign savvy—or lack thereof (see: [Timothée Chalamet](https://time.com/article/2026/03/16/timothee-chalamet-oscar-campaign/))—hint at the plot before Oscar night. But nothing tips the industry's hand quite like the Venice Film Festival. Four of the past 10 Best Picture winners to premiere at a film festival debuted in Venice—twice as many as Cannes, with Telluride, South by Southwest, Sundance, and TIFF launching one eventual winner apiece. There, buzz is measured in minutes. The credits roll, the stopwatch starts, and the standing ovation's runtime becomes the most quoted—and increasingly misleading—figure. Prediction-market traders can be harsher critics and, sometimes, better awards-season forecasters. Luca Guadagnino's _After the Hunt_ arrived at the 2025 Venice Film Festival with awards-season momentum. Its premiere seemed to justify the hype: the film reportedly "[wowed](https://variety.com/2025/film/festivals/julia-roberts-andrew-garfield-after-the-hunt-venice-premiere-1236495127/)" a teary-eyed crowd and drew a [six-minute standing ovation](https://variety.com/2025/film/festivals/julia-roberts-andrew-garfield-after-the-hunt-venice-premiere-1236495127/). Traders headed for the exits: _After the Hunt_ entered Venice with a 45% chance of earning a [Best Picture nomination](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxoscarnompic/oscar-nominations-for-best-picture/kxoscarnompic-26) and left at 8%. The film ultimately earned a 36% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes and zero Oscar nominations. The stopwatch is moving the market this year. One of film's most acclaimed actors drew a 13-minute ovation in Venice on Thursday—and watched his chances of finally winning the gold statuette climb from 7% to 26%. ## Venice Film Festival and Oscar Odds Below are the [Venice Film Festival Golden Lion for Best Film odds](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxvfilmfestival/who-will-win-award/kxvfilmfestival-gli26), per Kalshi.  Since 2014, every Venice Film Festival has premiered at least one eventual Best Picture nominee, with 23 of its selections landing nominations over that 12-year span. Five of the past nine Golden Lion winners, Venice's prize for best film, have gone on to earn Best Picture nominations. The festival, which runs through September 12, has generated roughly $20,000 in trading volume across its awards markets. Those markets remain lightly traded compared to the ones it helps inform. The bigger money and sharper moves are in the Oscar markets, where a Venice standout has surged near the top of the [Best Actor odds](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxoscarnomacto/oscar-nominations-for-best-actor/kxoscarnomacto-27).  John Malkovich entered Venice with a 7% chance of winning the Oscar for Best Actor and a 54% chance of being nominated. After _Wild Horse Nine_ drew a 13-minute standing ovation, his chances of winning rose to 26%, and his chances of being nominated rose to 81%. He now ranks second in both markets, trailing only Matt Damon for _The Odyssey_. The race is young, but the overdue Oscar storyline is already there. Malkovich has two nominations and an Oscar-nominated movie about [what it's like to be him](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0120601/?%5FssoLoop=1)—but no wins. Written and directed by Martin McDonagh, _Wild Horse Nine_ follows two CIA agents, played by Malkovich and Sam Rockwell, on Easter Island in 1973\. The film's "[thunderous](https://variety.com/2026/film/festivals/wild-horse-nine-john-malkovich-sam-rockwell-venice-premiere-1236850074/)" reception boosted McDonagh across two Oscar markets: his chances of earning a [nomination for Best Director](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxoscarnomdir/oscar-nominations-for-best-director/kxoscarnomdir-27) climbed from 58% to 67%, and his chances of winning [Best Original Screenplay](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxoscarsplay/oscar-for-best-original-screenplay/kxoscarsplay-27) climbed from 32% to 49%—enough to make him the new favorite in that category. Venice loved _Wild Horse Nine_. Oscar traders repriced it accordingly. The stopwatch starts again this weekend: Lance Oppenheim's _Primetime_ will premiere on Saturday, with Robert Pattinson playing Chris Hansen at the height of _To Catch a Predator_. Hansen, who has called the film "[overly dramatic](https://variety.com/2026/film/news/chris-hansen-robert-pattinson-primetime-overly-dramatic-1236846693/)," has [purchased advertisements for his own streaming service](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/chris-hansen-buys-ads-before-every-screening-a24-primetime-1236682255/) to run before the film's theatrical screenings. That is the kind of pre-premiere subplot that has everyone wondering what, exactly, Venice is about to watch. Traders will be listening to the applause. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: Italy's 60-Year Wait Drives a Mercedes](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/italy-s-60-year-wait-drives-a-mercedes/)  ### Italy's 60-Year Wait Drives a Mercedes [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/italy-s-60-year-wait-drives-a-mercedes/) [Open article: What Prediction Markets Say About Every NFC Division](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nfc-s-divisions-dont-add-up/)  ### What Prediction Markets Say About Every NFC Division [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nfc-s-divisions-dont-add-up/) [Open article: What Prediction Markets Say About Every AFC Division](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-afc-has-new-division-champions-and-the-same-old-favorites/)  ### What Prediction Markets Say About Every AFC Division [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-afc-has-new-division-champions-and-the-same-old-favorites/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-oscars-start-in-venice/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-oscars-start-in-venice/"},"headline":"The Oscars Start in Venice","datePublished":"2026-09-04T21:09:19.119Z","dateModified":"2026-09-04T21:08:30.438Z","description":"The Venice Film Festival has launched 23 Best Picture nominees since 2014. 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