--- title: Which NFL Games Get the Most Prediction Market Trading? description: Which NFL games draw the most prediction-market trading volume? Explore the primetime matchups, shootouts, and unlikely comebacks attracting traders. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nfl-games-dominating-prediction-markets/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-10-02T23:51:53.737Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-02T23:51:48.259Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: Which NFL Games Get the Most Prediction Market Trading? og:description: Which NFL games draw the most prediction-market trading volume? Explore the primetime matchups, shootouts, and unlikely comebacks attracting traders. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nfl-games-dominating-prediction-markets/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt033d8a59a2537469/6abff42b9a32fd6fefb9e9e2/GettyImages-2297769778.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2297769778.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Which NFL Games Get the Most Prediction Market Trading? twitter:description: Which NFL games draw the most prediction-market trading volume? Explore the primetime matchups, shootouts, and unlikely comebacks attracting traders. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt033d8a59a2537469/6abff42b9a32fd6fefb9e9e2/GettyImages-2297769778.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # The NFL Games Dominating Prediction Markets > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Subscription: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition TIME is a general-interest news organization founded in 1923, reporting on the people, ideas and issues shaping the world. A TIME subscription provides full access to that journalism in print and digital, from $20 a year, and can be cancelled at any time. 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They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-sub-2026q3/newsletters?i=4f6e04c1-a535-43eb-a663-f626547f4822&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) * TIME Subscriptions: [time.com/subscribe-agent](/c/time-sub-2026q3/subscribe?i=4f6e04c1-a535-43eb-a663-f626547f4822&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Oct 2, 2026 11:51 PM UTC  Case Keenum #11 of the Chicago Bears celebrates after Kalif Raymond #14 (not pictured) scored a 41-yard touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles during the fourth quarter of the game at Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois on September 28, 2026. Case Keenum #11 of the Chicago Bears celebrates after Kalif Raymond #14 (not pictured) scored a 41-yard touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles during the fourth quarter of the game at Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois on September 28, 2026. Michael Reaves—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Oct 2, 2026 11:51 PM UTC Candidates for breakout player of the 2026 NFL season: Christian Watson, Tyler Shough, Parker Washington, Matthew Golden—and prediction markets. Prediction market platforms Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US, and Novig have generated [$77.5 billion](https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/volume/) in trading volume over the past 30 days, according to [data from DeFi Rate](https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/volume/). Kalshi accounts for [80%](https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/volume/?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com&venue=kalshi&period=30D) of that volume, up from a 58% share over the previous 30 days—a surge that has coincided with the return of the NFL. This is the second full NFL season for Kalshi, which began offering sports contracts in January 2025\. The platform appears to be making a Lamar Jackson-style Year 2 leap. Kalshi drew [$7.21 billion](https://defirate.com/news/prediction-market-nfl-trading-volume-could-reach-57-billion/) in NFL trading volume across the entire 2025 season. Through just three weeks, it has already topped that mark with $7.94 billion, according to a Kalshi spokesperson. And the games drawing the most—and least—volume are starting to reveal what prediction-market traders value most, including how a third-string quarterback ended up at the center of the season's biggest market. ### NFL Games With the Most Trading Volume Below are the five NFL games that have generated the most non-combo trading volume on [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/hubs/nfl) through Week 3 of this season. 1. **Eagles vs. Bears (Week 3) — $157.8 million** 2. **Colts vs. Chiefs (Week 2) — $140.9 million** 3. **Rams vs. Broncos (Week 3) — $130.1 million** 4. **Giants vs. Rams (Week 2) — $121.9 million** 5. **Falcons vs. Packers (Week 3) — $113.9 million** The five most-traded games so far this season were all played in primetime: one Thursday night game, two Sunday night games, and two Monday night games. [Island games](https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/%5F/id/41290993/2024-nfl-season-island-game-betting-odds-stats-action) have long [correlated](https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/%5F/id/41290993/2024-nfl-season-island-game-betting-odds-stats-action) with increased trading and betting activity. The Sunday afternoon slate can feature as many as eight games competing for attention at once, and most viewers without Sunday Ticket are limited to the one or two games airing locally. Primetime is the one window where NFL viewers—and prediction-market traders—are focused on the same game. But the most popular primetime game wasn't the Super Bowl rematch between the Seahawks and Patriots, the 72-point barnburner between the Bills and Lions, or the overtime match between the Chiefs and Colts. The biggest draw this NFL season: a third-string quarterback who had not started a game in 1,009 days. The NFL reserves primetime games for the best teams and most compelling matchups. Week 3's _Monday Night Football_ match between the Eagles and Bears appeared to be just that—until Bears quarterback [Caleb Williams was ruled out with a hamstring injury](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/%5F/id/50036929/sources-caleb-williams-injury-considered-3-4-week-line). Chicago turned to Case Keenum over backup Tyson Bagent. Keenum, effectively serving as a player-coach in Chicago, was truly one of those names you hadn't heard in years. He had made just four starts over the previous six seasons. The total fell to 42.5 points, the lowest for any primetime game this season. If lower offensive expectations correlate with less trading activity (more on that later), Eagles-Bears looked like a candidate for the season's quietest primetime market. But [Keenum dealt from the start](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7643981/2026/09/30/bears-case-keenum-tyson-bagent-quarterback-starting/), capping a 66-yard opening drive with a [touchdown pass](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HamAbiouNuI). The supposed downgrade at quarterback had turned into a comeback story, giving viewers a reason to watch and traders an offense to reprice in real time. Eagles-Bears generated $104.6 million in live trading volume on Kalshi, according to [Aldrin Research](https://www.rotowire.com/article/which-nfl-teams-are-prediction-markets-betting-on-weekly-kalshi-and-polymarket-volume-rankings-130263), and was [ESPN's second-most-watched Week 3 game](https://espnpressroom.com/press-release/eagles-bears-on-monday-night-football-records-22-6-million-viewers/) since at least 2006\. The ten primetime games have drawn an average of $120 million in trading volume, compared with a $22.8 million average for the non-primetime games. Outside the primetime spotlight, a different trading trend emerges. ### NFL Daytime Games With the Most Trading Volume Below are the five daytime NFL games that have generated the most non-combo trading volume on [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/hubs/nfl) through Week 3 of this season. 1. **Cowboys vs. Ravens (Week 3) — $55.8 million** 2. **Packers vs. Vikings (Week 1) — $39.6 million** 3. **Commanders vs. Eagles (Week 1) — $39.5 million** 4. **Raiders vs. Saints (Week 3) — $34.8 million** 5. **Bills vs. Texans (Week 1) — $34.1 million** NFL games have averaged 45.7 points this season. The five most-traded daytime games have averaged 60.2 points—and four of them were decided by one possession. Competitive, high-scoring games are bound to draw more general interest than lopsided, low-scoring ones. They also create better conditions for live trading. The Week 3 Cowboys-Ravens game showed what a shootout can do for the market. Twenty-nine of the 38 daytime games this season have generated less than $30 million in trading volume. Cowboys-Ravens drew $55.8 million, the most of any daytime game this season. The teams combined for 793 yards and 65 points, with five lead changes overall and three scores in the final 90 seconds. The games at the bottom of the trading board offered considerably less suspense—and fewer points. ### NFL Games With the Least Trading Volume Below are the five NFL games that have generated the least non-combo trading volume on [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/hubs/nfl) through Week 3 of this season. 1. **Jets vs. Titans (Week 1) — $8.4 million** 2. **Panthers vs. Falcons (Week 2) — $11.2 million** 3. **Steelers vs. Patriots (Week 2) — $12.6 million** 4. **Browns vs. Jaguars (Week 1) — $12.8 million** 5. **Giants vs. Titans (Week 3) — $13.2 million** The five least-traded games have averaged 31.2 points, well below the league average of 45.7 points. Four were decided by at least 13 points, and the average margin across all five was 18\. The lone close game was Giants-Titans, mostly because neither team could score in a slog that ended 12-7\. Read those matchups again: Jets-Titans, Panthers-Falcons, Steelers-Patriots, Browns-Jaguars, Giants-Titans. Not exactly must-watch football. The low scores and lopsided margins, which can lead to less live trading, explain part of the slump. But these games were fighting for attention before kickoff, too. That made Week 4's _Thursday Night Football_ game an interesting test. The Steelers and Browns, two teams represented on this list, combined for 51 points in a 27-24 Browns win that was decided by a field goal in the final seconds. Trading volume reached [$119.5 million](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflgame/nfl-game/kxnflgame-26oct01pitcle). Steelers-Browns might not sound like a $119 million matchup. Put those teams on Sunday afternoon and have the offenses perform at their baseline, and it probably isn't. But for a high-scoring primetime game that remains tradeable until the final seconds, $119 million is starting to look like the prediction-market norm. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: Nathan Fielder's Elizabeth Holmes Documentary Could Make Oscar History](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/nathan-fielder-s-elizabeth-holmes-documentary-could-make-oscar-history/)  ### Nathan Fielder's Elizabeth Holmes Documentary Could Make Oscar History [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/nathan-fielder-s-elizabeth-holmes-documentary-could-make-oscar-history/) [Open article: The Big Brother Decision That Could Cost $750,000](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/big-brother-finale/)  ### The Big Brother Decision That Could Cost $750,000 [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/big-brother-finale/) [Open article: The Biggest Winners and Losers in the CFP Race So Far](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-biggest-movers-in-the-college-football-playoff-race/)  ### The Biggest Winners and Losers in the CFP Race So Far [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-biggest-movers-in-the-college-football-playoff-race/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nfl-games-dominating-prediction-markets/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nfl-games-dominating-prediction-markets/"},"headline":"The NFL Games Dominating Prediction Markets","datePublished":"2026-10-02T23:51:53.737Z","dateModified":"2026-10-02T23:51:48.259Z","description":"Kalshi has already topped its entire 2025 NFL trading volume in just three weeks. 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