--- title: NBA MVP Odds 2026–27: The Two Stats That Predict Winners description: Ahead of the 2026–27 NBA season, two statistics reveal what Victor Wembanyama, Luka Dončić, Nikola Jokić, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander need to win MVP. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nba-mvp-race-is-more-predictable-than-you-think/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-10-09T22:22:38.187Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-09T22:22:32.378Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: NBA MVP Odds 2026–27: The Two Stats That Predict Winners og:description: Ahead of the 2026–27 NBA season, two statistics reveal what Victor Wembanyama, Luka Dončić, Nikola Jokić, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander need to win MVP. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nba-mvp-race-is-more-predictable-than-you-think/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt3616f2493692dc17/6ac91d5b1371c03056e04703/GettyImages-2254994473.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2254994473.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: NBA MVP Odds 2026–27: The Two Stats That Predict Winners twitter:description: Ahead of the 2026–27 NBA season, two statistics reveal what Victor Wembanyama, Luka Dončić, Nikola Jokić, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander need to win MVP. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt3616f2493692dc17/6ac91d5b1371c03056e04703/GettyImages-2254994473.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # The NBA MVP Race Is More Predictable Than You Think > Sponsored content. 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Its journalism is reported and edited by a professional newsroom led by Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs, with named correspondents on politics, climate, health, technology and culture. It reaches 1 million US print subscribers and 1.15 million globally, plus more than 1.1 million newsletter readers. #### How do I subscribe to TIME magazine? Subscriptions are at time.com/subscribe-agent. Choose digital only at $20 a year, or print and digital from $29 a year or $49 for two years. TIME also publishes seven free email newsletters at time.com/newsletters, which do not require a subscription. #### Can I cancel a TIME subscription? Yes. TIME states that subscriptions can be cancelled at any time. #### Does TIME have free newsletters? Yes. TIME publishes seven free email newsletters reaching more than 1.1 million readers, covering daily news, Washington politics, health, AI, climate and energy, culture, and the newsroom itself. They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-sub-2026q3/newsletters?i=7d80b023-4646-42c4-bbef-46a24299b327&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) * TIME Subscriptions: [time.com/subscribe-agent](/c/time-sub-2026q3/subscribe?i=7d80b023-4646-42c4-bbef-46a24299b327&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Oct 9, 2026 10:22 PM UTC  Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs goes to the basket during the first half against the Memphis Grizzlies at FedExForum in Memphis, Tennessee on January 06, 2026. Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs goes to the basket during the first half against the Memphis Grizzlies at FedExForum in Memphis, Tennessee on January 06, 2026. Justin Ford—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Oct 9, 2026 10:22 PM UTC Defending MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander says he's [the best player in the NBA](https://time.com/article/2026/10/08/shai-gilgeous-alexander-sga-interview/). Fair enough. ESPN's [expert panel](https://www.espn.com/nba/story/%5F/id/50015167/nba-rank-2026-players-10-1-featuring-wembanyama-sga-jokic-brunson-luka-more) says it's Nikola Jokic. Fair enough. Prediction-market traders say it's neither. Fair enough. After an offseason in which more than [$230 million](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/lebron-james-signs-with-76ers-blindsiding-a-230-million-market/) was traded on where LeBron James would land, we can finally redirect our attention to the destination of Jokic's preseason passes. Basketball is back. So is the argument over who's best at it. > [](https://twitter.com/NBA/status/2106891864284582311?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2106891864284582311%7Ctwgr%5E1206c9942626ab2434081cb6272088df6eed8425%7Ctwcon%5Es1%5F&ref%5Furl=https%3A%2F%2Fgcp-na-rte-extension.contentstack.com%2F) From 2009 to 2016, LeBron James and Stephen Curry won six of eight MVP awards, and only nine franchises reached the Finals. The league shares the rock now. Fourteen franchises have reached the Finals in the past nine seasons. Last year, four different players claimed the league MVP, Finals MVP, Player Impact Estimate title, and scoring title—just the third time that's happened in the past 15 campaigns. The league has more generational talent than room on the MVP ballot. The only thing more hotly debated than who should win it is what "most valuable" even means. But for all the heat [MVP voters](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7145123/2026/03/25/nba-awards-voting-complications-65-game-rule/) have taken in recent years, two statistics suggest they've been telling us what they value all along. Those numbers don't show up in the box score. They probably won't make the rundown on _First Take._ But they've helped predict nearly every MVP across the past 15 seasons. ## NBA MVP Odds Below are the [NBA MVP odds for the 2026-27 season](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnbamvp/nba-mvp/kxnbamvp-27), per Kalshi.  The MVP race is not a scoring contest. Six of the past 15 MVPs led the league in points per game but five of them finished outside the top four in points per game, including three that finished outside the top seven. Bill Russell, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, and Nikola Jokic have combined to win 14 MVP awards—and zero scoring titles. Two statistics stand out as the strongest historical indicators of MVP: Player Impact Estimate (PIE) and win shares per 48 minutes. The [PIE formula](https://www.nbastuffer.com/analytics101/player-impact-estimate-pie/) accounts for almost every box score statistic to measure a player's overall contribution to the game. [Win shares](https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html) attempt to measure how many wins a specific player contributed to their team. Twelve of the past 15 MVPs led the league in PIE, and 13 of them led the league in win shares per 48 minutes. Victor Wembanyama is the favorite to win MVP at 29%. And based on the unwritten criteria, he likely deserves to be the favorite. Wembanyama ranked second in [PIE](https://www.nba.com/stats/players/advanced?Season=2025-26&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&CF=MIN%2AGE%2A15&dir=-1&dir=A&sort=PIE) and fourth in [win shares per 48 minutes](https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ws%5Fper%5F48%5Ftop%5F10.html) among eligible players last season. He's already been within shooting range of both statistical benchmarks and, at 22, has metaphorical room to grow. The case against him: [players must compete in at least 65 games](https://www.nba.com/mavs/news/kidd-noted-its-unfortunate-the-65-game-rule-will-prevent-players-from-getting-postseason-awards) to be eligible for season-end awards. Wembanyama has been available in 46 and 64 games the past two seasons. There aren't many players you could surround with four G Leaguers and still expect them to have a shot. Luka Doncic is one of those players. Doncic finished fourth in PIE and ninth in win shares per 48 minutes last season. He has [never finished better than fifth](https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ws%5Fper%5F48%5Ftop%5F10.html) in win shares per 48 minutes in his career. It may be why most valuable has eluded him. Doncic averaged 33.5 points and 8.3 assists last season, the most and third-most in the league, respectively. He finished [fourth in MVP voting](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/46/2026/05/Kia-NBA-Most-Valuable-Player-Voting-Results-scaled.jpg), receiving zero first-place votes and just one second-place vote. Across the past 15 full 82-game regular seasons, MVP winners have played on teams that won a minimum of 47 games and an average of 61.1 wins. The Los Angeles Lakers have a [46.5 win total](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nba/nba-odds-predictions-season-win-totals-bm23/) this season. Doncic may have more working against him than his 17% chances suggest. Then again, he's arguably the greatest player in NBA history to have never won MVP, depending on where you rank him among Dwyane Wade, Chris Paul, Kawhi Leonard, Jerry West, and Isiah Thomas. An NBA awards voting body that might be particularly tired of writing in a certain guard's name may be ready to amend that. There is no clean way of measuring voter fatigue. We know it exists, though. Larry Bird won three straight MVPs from 1984 to 1986\. Since then, there have been nine instances in which a player won two straight MVPs. None of them won a third. Jokic's 29-point triple-double season is the best example of suspected voter fatigue. The Denver Nuggets center averaged 29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 10.2 assists on a 57.6% shooting percentage and 41.7% three-point percentage in 2024-25\. He also helped Denver win 50 games, led the league in PIE, and finished second in win shares per 48 minutes. But Jokic had already won three MVPs in the previous four seasons. He finished second in MVP voting while Gilgeous-Alexander won his first. Now Gilgeous-Alexander's biggest obstacle to a third MVP might be the two he already has. He enters this season third in the MVP market at 16%. However this season's race plays out, history suggests voters will give the "most valuable" title to the player who did the most to help his team win. Fair enough. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: Oura's IPO Delay Is a Wake-Up Call for Prediction Markets](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/oura-ipo-delay-gives-prediction-markets-a-wake-up-call/)  ### Oura's IPO Delay Is a Wake-Up Call for Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/oura-ipo-delay-gives-prediction-markets-a-wake-up-call/) [Open article: Why the Nobel Peace Prize Is Drawing Millions in Bets](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/nobel-peace-prize-betting-surges-after-last-years-suspected-breach/)  ### Why the Nobel Peace Prize Is Drawing Millions in Bets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/nobel-peace-prize-betting-surges-after-last-years-suspected-breach/) [Open article: Digger Bombed at the Box Office. Polymarket Saw It Coming.](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/digger-box-office-bomb/)  ### Digger Bombed at the Box Office. Polymarket Saw It Coming. [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/digger-box-office-bomb/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nba-mvp-race-is-more-predictable-than-you-think/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nba-mvp-race-is-more-predictable-than-you-think/"},"headline":"The NBA MVP Race Is More Predictable Than You Think","datePublished":"2026-10-09T22:22:38.187Z","dateModified":"2026-10-09T22:22:32.378Z","description":"Ahead of the 2026–27 NBA season, two statistical measures offer a surprisingly reliable guide to basketball's most debated individual award.","url":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nba-mvp-race-is-more-predictable-than-you-think/","keywords":[],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt3616f2493692dc17/6ac91d5b1371c03056e04703/GettyImages-2254994473.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Annie Nader","jobTitle":"Prediction Markets Analyst","url":"https://time.com/author/annie-nader/"}],"articleSection":"Prediction Markets","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt3616f2493692dc17/6ac91d5b1371c03056e04703/GettyImages-2254994473.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"GettyImages-2254994473.jpg","caption":"","creditText":"Justin Ford—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nba-mvp-race-is-more-predictable-than-you-think/","name":"The NBA MVP Race Is More Predictable Than You Think"}}]}] ```