--- title: Knicks vs. 76ers: Opening Night Odds and NBA Finals Predictions description: The defending champion Knicks host LeBron James and the 76ers on NBA opening night. Here's what prediction markets and NBA general managers expect this season. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-knicks-begin-title-defense-against-lebron/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-10-20T17:27:11.301Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-20T17:27:11.531Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: Knicks vs. 76ers: Opening Night Odds and NBA Finals Predictions og:description: The defending champion Knicks host LeBron James and the 76ers on NBA opening night. Here's what prediction markets and NBA general managers expect this season. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-knicks-begin-title-defense-against-lebron/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt606b73cf636fb15c/6ad6a5f396b6a55ef88386e1/GettyImages-2300023781.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2300023781.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Knicks vs. 76ers: Opening Night Odds and NBA Finals Predictions twitter:description: The defending champion Knicks host LeBron James and the 76ers on NBA opening night. Here's what prediction markets and NBA general managers expect this season. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt606b73cf636fb15c/6ad6a5f396b6a55ef88386e1/GettyImages-2300023781.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # The Knicks Begin Title Defense Against LeBron—and the Odds > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Subscription: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition TIME is a general-interest news organization founded in 1923, reporting on the people, ideas and issues shaping the world. A TIME subscription provides full access to that journalism in print and digital, from $20 a year, and can be cancelled at any time. 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They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-sub-2026q3/newsletters?i=ab54ea93-349f-43b7-9e3b-c6f23f68f728&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) * TIME Subscriptions: [time.com/subscribe-agent](/c/time-sub-2026q3/subscribe?i=ab54ea93-349f-43b7-9e3b-c6f23f68f728&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Oct 20, 2026 5:27 PM UTC  LeBron James #23 of the Philadelphia 76ers looks on during the game against the Boston Celtics at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on October 16, 2026. LeBron James #23 of the Philadelphia 76ers looks on during the game against the Boston Celtics at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on October 16, 2026. Jesse D. Garrabrant—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Oct 20, 2026 5:27 PM UTC Madison Square Garden has been handing out rafter real estate to musicians in residency on the once-reasonable assumption that its basketball team wouldn't be needing any more of it. Tonight, Billy Joel, Harry Styles, and Phish will have to make room for a Knicks championship banner. The NBA season begins today with a three-game slate, headlined by LeBron James, Jaylen Brown, and the Philadelphia 76ers visiting Jalen Brunson and the defending champion New York Knicks—a sentence that gets progressively worse for Boston Celtics fans and is one year removed from reading like complete fan fiction. As our eyes take all 48 minutes to adjust to James in a 76ers jersey, Mike Tirico and the broadcast booth will likely remind viewers of the free-agency pairing that almost was. James' decision to sign with the 76ers this offseason crossed up [prediction-market traders](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/lebron-james-signs-with-76ers-blindsiding-a-230-million-market/). In hindsight, the things James seemed to value in Philadelphia—a big-market Eastern Conference team, an All-Star floor general sidekick, and a chance to end a decades-long championship drought—sound a lot like what New York once offered. James has since confirmed that he had envisioned [finishing his career at Madison Square Garden](https://www.espn.com/nba/story/%5F/id/50053106/lebron-james-says-envisioned-joining-knicks-free-agent) but benched the idea after the Knicks beat the Spurs in the 2026 NBA Finals. The Knicks have a remarkable opening-night trend working in their favor. The 76ers have enough star power to spoil banner night, provided they can all agree on whose turn it is to shoot. But for all the attention on New York and Philadelphia tonight, the league's general managers and prediction-market traders alike aren't so sure either team will be celebrating for long. ## 76ers vs. Knicks Opening Night Odds Below are the [odds for 76ers vs. Knicks](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnbagame/nba-game/kxnbagame-26oct20phinyk), per Kalshi.  The championship hangover may be a real phenomenon, but the effects don't seem to kick in until after opening night. Defending champions are 63-16 in their first home game after winning the title, according to [NBC Sports Philadelphia](https://www.nbcsportsphiladelphia.com/nba/philadelphia-76ers/sixers-knicks-banner-night-history/759609/). The [home team](https://sports.yahoo.com/fact-or-fiction-is-home-court-advantage-in-the-nbas-regular-season-dead-194958543.html) is more likely to win a game, in general, and the average reigning champion is probably more likely to win a game than the average team. Even with the league now regularly matching defending champions against fellow contenders on opening night, those champions have still won 80% of their home openers over both the past 10 and 20 seasons. The market favors New York, but not by as high of a margin as that trend would suggest: the Knicks are a 61% implied favorite over the 76ers on Tuesday. New York returns all five starters and nine of the 10 members of its championship playoff rotation, essentially swapping Mitchell Robinson for Andre Drummond. The Knicks retained players who accounted for [88%](https://www.nba.com/news/5-takeaways-from-2026-free-agency) of last season's minutes, the fourth-highest share in the NBA. The 76ers retained just [57%](https://www.nba.com/news/5-takeaways-from-2026-free-agency), the fourth-lowest share. Strong roster continuity should give the Knicks an early edge as the Sixers negotiate joint custody of the basketball. Philadelphia's projected starters—Tyrese Maxey, V.J. Edgecombe, Jaylen Brown, LeBron James, and Joel Embiid—averaged a combined 90.4 field goal attempts per game last season. The entire 76ers team averaged 90.3 last season, and only seven teams took more. Over 82 games, too many scorers may turn out to be just enough. Embiid has played in just 39% of regular season games across the past three seasons, and James probably chose the 76ers in part because of how little they can ask of him in the regular season. But tonight, with the Sixers at full strength, we get to see whose light stays green—and whose turns yellow. The Knicks and 76ers get the top billing on opening night. In the Finals market, that distinction belongs to two teams out West, at least according to prediction-market traders and pretty much every person who assembles NBA rosters for a living. ## NBA Finals Odds Below are the [2026-27 NBA Finals odds](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnba/pro-basketball-champion/kxnba-27), per Kalshi.  ESPN's [NBA preseason picks](https://www.espn.com/nba/story/%5F/id/50182600/nba-expert-picks-east-west-champs-mvp) went [viral](https://www.espn.com/nba/story/%5F/id/50182600/nba-expert-picks-east-west-champs-mvp) after none of its 15 experts chose the Knicks to repeat this season. New York fans can save the screenshots as future Old Takes Exposed material, but the disrespect was not personal: ESPN's experts didn't pick any of the other 27 teams not named the Oklahoma City Thunder or San Antonio Spurs, either. Those privy to more advanced statistics than you or me were as sour on the Eastern Conference. In the [league's annual survey](https://www.nba.com/news/2026-27-nba-gm-survey), 93% of general managers said the Thunder or Spurs would win the Finals this season. San Antonio received 50% of the championship vote. Oklahoma City received 43%. New York and Philadelphia each received one vote (general managers were not allowed to vote for their own team). Prediction-market traders on Kalshi have the same two teams on top. The Thunder have a 23% chance of winning the NBA Finals, followed by the Spurs at 22%, the 76ers at 11%, and the Knicks at 9%. Thirty-one of the past 32 teams to reach the NBA Finals finished the regular season top nine in effective field goal percentage (eFG%), a statistic that measures shooting efficiency by adjusting for the extra value of three-point makes. The Finals have accommodated No. 4 seeds, No. 5 seeds, and even a No. 8 seed across the past 16 seasons. Only one team, the 2023 Miami Heat, made June without a top-nine eFG%. The 76ers ranked 26th in eFG% last season. New addition Jaylen Brown ranked 23rd of 30 in eFG% among players who played at least 65 games and averaged a 25% usage rate or higher. Philadelphia has more shooters this time around. They need to be more efficient. The Knicks have a trend to beat, too. No team has repeated as NBA champion since the 2018 Golden State Warriors, the longest such run since 1987\. But these Knicks entered last postseason with a 5% title chance and at one point had a [0.3% chance](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/og-anunoby-crashes-the-glass-and-the-finals-mvp-market/) to win Game 4 of the Finals. Maybe save some space in the rafters. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: College Football's Best Teams Picked a Good Week to Lose](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/winners-and-losers-from-college-football-s-historic-day-of-upsets/)  ### College Football's Best Teams Picked a Good Week to Lose [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/winners-and-losers-from-college-football-s-historic-day-of-upsets/) [Open article: The Valkyries Are Four Wins From Making Expansion History](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/golden-state-is-four-wins-from-making-expansion-history/)  ### The Valkyries Are Four Wins From Making Expansion History [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/golden-state-is-four-wins-from-making-expansion-history/) [Open article: Predicting the 2027 Grammy Nominations](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/predicting-the-2027-grammy-nominations/)  ### Predicting the 2027 Grammy Nominations [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/predicting-the-2027-grammy-nominations/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-knicks-begin-title-defense-against-lebron/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-knicks-begin-title-defense-against-lebron/"},"headline":"The Knicks Begin Title Defense Against LeBron—and the Odds","datePublished":"2026-10-20T17:27:11.301Z","dateModified":"2026-10-20T17:27:11.531Z","description":"The Knicks have history on their side tonight. 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