--- title: 2026 Heisman Odds: Why CJ Carr and Arch Manning Face a Tough Trend description: CJ Carr and Arch Manning lead the 2026 Heisman odds, but only one preseason favorite has won in 17 seasons. Here's why the board so often misses. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-heisman-s-favorite-problem/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-08-24T11:04:35.351Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-24T11:04:07.171Z og:title: 2026 Heisman Odds: Why CJ Carr and Arch Manning Face a Tough Trend og:description: CJ Carr and Arch Manning lead the 2026 Heisman odds, but only one preseason favorite has won in 17 seasons. Here's why the board so often misses. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-heisman-s-favorite-problem/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt0b52aa6e83368836/6a8aefe4ea4c784dd03814bc/GettyImages-2247665109.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 675 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2247665109.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: 2026 Heisman Odds: Why CJ Carr and Arch Manning Face a Tough Trend twitter:description: CJ Carr and Arch Manning lead the 2026 Heisman odds, but only one preseason favorite has won in 17 seasons. Here's why the board so often misses. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt0b52aa6e83368836/6a8aefe4ea4c784dd03814bc/GettyImages-2247665109.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # The Heisman's Favorite Problem by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Aug 24, 2026 11:04 AM UTC  Quarterback Arch Manning #16 of the Texas Longhorns signals to his center during the SEC football game between Texas Longhorns and Arkansas Razorbacks at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, TX on November 22, 2025. Quarterback Arch Manning #16 of the Texas Longhorns signals to his center during the SEC football game between Texas Longhorns and Arkansas Razorbacks at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, TX on November 22, 2025.David Buono–Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Aug 24, 2026 11:04 AM UTC The Heisman Trophy is college football's greatest individual honor—one that summons an army of Monday morning quarterbacks warring over who got robbed and who padded his stat line against a MAC defense. Even in mid-August, the 45-pound bronze statue can stiff-arm its way into debate. Earlier this month, LSU reissued Jayden Daniels' old No. 5 jersey to cornerback DJ Pickett—a number the school has not retired and Daniels has no formal claim to—sparking an NIL dispute that escalated to a [cease-and-desist letter](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/%5F/id/49596211/daniels-sends-cease-desist-lsu-pickett-given-no-5) and a report that [Daniels' camp requested the school return its Heisman replica](https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/jayden-daniels-reportedly-wants-lsu-to-return-its-copy-of-his-heisman-trophy). The internet got to him like a pass rusher through the Washington Commanders' o-line. The [New York Mets](https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/%5F/id/49621752/new-york-mets-jayden-daniels-no-5-jersey-washington-commanders-lsu-tigers) even joined the pile-on. It was a remarkable amount of Heisman-related drama for a week with no football or ballots. The Heisman Trust knows its audience. Those who plan fall weddings around bye weeks will officially have a say through [Heisman Hopefuls](https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/%5F/id/49638749/new-heisman-platform-allows-college-football-fans-cast-votes), a platform where fans can vote on the award during the season. The top three finishers will be submitted as a single ballot alongside the [930 traditional voters](https://www.heisman.com/about-the-heisman/balloting-info/). Voting opens September 9, but fans aren't waiting for kickoff: more than $6.5 million has been traded on Kalshi's Heisman market ahead of the 2026 season. Let's meet this year's hopefuls—and see why being the preseason favorite has historically been a pretty good way not to win. ## **2026 Heisman Trophy Odds** Below are the [2026 Heisman Trophy odds](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxheisman/heisman-trophy-winner/kxheisman-27), per Kalshi.  Only [one preseason Heisman favorite has won the award](https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/%5F/id/45975265/2025-heisman-trophy-odds-college-football-betting-preview) over the past 17 seasons: Marcus Mariota in 2014\. That 1-for-17 record seems jarring, but college football—at least before the playoff expanded—leaves little room for performance error. One forgettable afternoon could derail an entire season, let alone an individual award campaign. But failing to win is not the same as failing to factor. Since 2015, only seven of the 22 players who were [top-two preseason favorites](https://www.covers.com/sportsoddshistory/cfb-main/?y=2025&sa=cfb&a=heis) were ultimately named [Heisman finalists](https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2024-12-14/heisman-trophy-winners-and-runners-each-year-1935), meaning more than two-thirds of the players touted in late August didn't even make it to New York. That history hangs over this year's two frontrunners, CJ Carr and Arch Manning—though there's reason to believe either could buck the trend. Preseason odds tend to reward what players have already done. The logic is obvious: players who finish one season on the unofficial Heisman short list have every reason to open the next campaign with favorable odds. Caleb Williams won the award in 2022 and [opened as the favorite](https://www.covers.com/sportsoddshistory/cfb-main/?y=2023&sa=cfb&a=heis) the following season. Carson Beck and Jalen Milroe were tied for the fourth-shortest odds during the 2023 conference championship week, then entered 2024 with the second- and fourth-shortest odds, respectively. Those players had earned the hype, but the track record of preseason favorites suggests the market may put too much weight on what it already knows. Carr and Manning complicate that pattern. Neither was a serious Heisman candidate down the stretch last season—Carr had the 13th-shortest and Manning the 20th-shortest odds in [Week 12](https://www.covers.com/sportsoddshistory/cfb-main/?y=2025&sa=cfb&a=heis)—so the market is not merely carrying December's prices into August. Manning arrived in Austin with five stars, two Super Bowl-winning uncles, and zero shortage of expectations, hype that earned him the shortest Heisman odds heading into last season. Carr, meanwhile, began his Notre Dame career with two straight losses before carrying the Irish to a perfect finish across their final ten games, throwing for 2,741 yards, 24 touchdowns, and just six interceptions. As Manning and Carr enter their second season as full-time starters, their current prices appear to be a mix of pedigree and projection. The market is not rewarding a Heisman-worthy campaign either has produced. It is pricing the leap it expects them to make. Notre Dame is tied with Ohio State atop [Kalshi's national championship market](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxncaaf/ncaaf-championship/kxncaaf-27). The Buckeyes have two legitimate Heisman candidates in Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith. Sayin was a finalist last season after throwing for 3,610 yards and 32 touchdowns, connecting with Smith on 12 of those scores. Every Sayin-to-Smith touchdown this season will strengthen the case for both, and potentially split the voters over which player is driving Ohio State's success. History says Sayin would get the credit: 16 of the past 20 Heisman winners have been quarterbacks. Miami's Darian Mensah sits just ahead of Sayin on the odds board. The Duke transfer threw for 3,973 yards and 34 touchdowns last season, ranking second only to reigning Heisman winner [Fernando Mendoza](https://time.com/collection/time100-sports/2026/fernando-mendoza/) in touchdown passes. Mensah's implied odds have been as low as 5.2% and as high as 11.4% in the past month, suggesting traders are still figuring out how his production will translate in a new uniform. The top of the board looks every bit like a Heisman race should in August. Still, recent history suggests the winner may be sitting a little farther down the board. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: The Rumor That Repriced the Bond Market](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-rumor-that-repriced-the-bond-market/)  ### The Rumor That Repriced the Bond Market [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-rumor-that-repriced-the-bond-market/) [Open article: Can the Market Scoop Marvel?](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/can-the-market-scoop-marvel/)  ### Can the Market Scoop Marvel? [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/can-the-market-scoop-marvel/) [Open article: Fantasy Football RB Rankings: Who Should You Draft?](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/gibbs-is-worth-the-rush/)  ### Fantasy Football RB Rankings: Who Should You Draft? [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/gibbs-is-worth-the-rush/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-heisman-s-favorite-problem/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-heisman-s-favorite-problem/"},"headline":"The Heisman's Favorite Problem","datePublished":"2026-08-24T11:04:35.351Z","dateModified":"2026-08-24T11:04:07.171Z","description":"Only one preseason Heisman favorite has won in the past 17 seasons. 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