--- title: College Football Playoff Odds After First 2026 CFP Rankings description: Alabama's playoff odds rose while Notre Dame's fell after the first CFP rankings. See the biggest moves and what's at stake in Week 10. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-first-cfp-rankings-are-in-here-s-how-the-odds-reacted/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-11-05T00:20:00.776Z article:modified_time: 2026-11-05T00:20:01.189Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: College Football Playoff Odds After First 2026 CFP Rankings og:description: Alabama's playoff odds rose while Notre Dame's fell after the first CFP rankings. See the biggest moves and what's at stake in Week 10. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-first-cfp-rankings-are-in-here-s-how-the-odds-reacted/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt78eaae274f22aad9/6aeb7f5e3c8cbe3adfef9d9e/GettyImages-2300230744.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2300230744.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: College Football Playoff Odds After First 2026 CFP Rankings twitter:description: Alabama's playoff odds rose while Notre Dame's fell after the first CFP rankings. See the biggest moves and what's at stake in Week 10. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt78eaae274f22aad9/6aeb7f5e3c8cbe3adfef9d9e/GettyImages-2300230744.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # The CFP Rankings Put Favorites on Notice > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Subscription: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition TIME is a general-interest news organization founded in 1923, reporting on the people, ideas and issues shaping the world. A TIME subscription provides full access to that journalism in print and digital, from $20 a year, and can be cancelled at any time. 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Its journalism is reported and edited by a professional newsroom led by Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs, with named correspondents on politics, climate, health, technology and culture. It reaches 1 million US print subscribers and 1.15 million globally, plus more than 1.1 million newsletter readers. #### How do I subscribe to TIME magazine? Subscriptions are at time.com/subscribe-agent. Choose digital only at $20 a year, or print and digital from $29 a year or $49 for two years. TIME also publishes seven free email newsletters at time.com/newsletters, which do not require a subscription. #### Can I cancel a TIME subscription? Yes. TIME states that subscriptions can be cancelled at any time. #### Does TIME have free newsletters? Yes. TIME publishes seven free email newsletters reaching more than 1.1 million readers, covering daily news, Washington politics, health, AI, climate and energy, culture, and the newsroom itself. They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-sub-2026q3/newsletters?i=d9102361-45b1-454b-a1fe-b8ea3f644728&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) * TIME Subscriptions: [time.com/subscribe-agent](/c/time-sub-2026q3/subscribe?i=d9102361-45b1-454b-a1fe-b8ea3f644728&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Nov 5, 2026 12:20 AM UTC  Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Keelon Russell (12) stands in the pocket under pressure from Tennessee Volunteers defensive lineman Tyree Weathersby (18) during the college football game between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Alabama Crimson Tide at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, TN, on October 17, 2026. Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Keelon Russell (12) stands in the pocket under pressure from Tennessee Volunteers defensive lineman Tyree Weathersby (18) during the college football game between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Alabama Crimson Tide at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, TN, on October 17, 2026. Bryan Lynn—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Nov 5, 2026 12:20 AM UTC Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Oregon, Texas Tech, and LSU entered the season with a combined [40%](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/college-football-moves-the-goalposts-again/) implied probability of winning the national championship. None of those programs would qualify for the 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP) if the field were set today—and they weren't even the biggest losers of Tuesday night's rankings reveal. After 10 weeks of AP polls and market forecasts, college football finally got a read from the people who actually decide the playoff field. The [CFP Selection Committee](https://collegefootballplayoff.com/news/2026/11/3/rankings) unveiled its first [rankings](https://collegefootballplayoff.com/news/2026/11/3/rankings) of the season Tuesday, marking the first of five rankings before the final field is announced on Selection Sunday, December 6\. > [](https://twitter.com/espn/status/2117774498216698334?s=42) Aggrieved fans can [scoff](https://x.com/BFW/status/2117778105511432275) at a bracket that has Alabama (6-2) in at No. 5 and Ohio State (6-2) out, but the committee's first drafts have held up about as well as [Darian Mensah](https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/%5F/id/5121169/darian-mensah)'s right arm. Across the first two seasons of the expanded playoff, 71% of teams in the initial projected field went on to make the playoff. Prediction-market traders responded by putting more than $500,000 in Kalshi's CFP market in the hours following the rankings reveal. A two-loss team leapfrogged an undefeated one and saw a 9% relative increase in its playoff chances, and Tuesday's biggest loser is now in a must-win spot against the best team in the country. ## College Football Playoff Odds Below are the [College Football Playoff odds](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxncaafplayoff/college-football-playoff-qualifiers), per Kalshi. ##  Here are the teams whose playoff odds shifted the most following the selection committee's first rankings: * **Alabama**: 65% to 71% **(+6)** * **Kentucky**: 35% to 41% **(+6)** * **Indiana:** 88% to 92% **(+4)** * **Ohio State**: 59% to 50% **(-9)** * **Notre Dame**: 80% to 69% **(-11)** The SEC is the most stacked conference in college football, its teams accounting for 13 of the nation's 20 [toughest schedules](https://apnews.com/article/college-football-playoff-rankings-8b7befbe18944c8587ae143fe7131fd4). SEC commissioner Greg Sankey has been [lobbying](https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cfb-hq/news/sec-favoritism-claims-emerge-after-controversial-college-football-playoff-rankings-alabama-texas-ole-miss-tennessee) for the CFP Selection Committee to place a greater emphasis on that strength of schedule. Loud and clear: nine of the SEC's 10 ranked teams sit higher in the CFP rankings than in the AP poll. That includes a two-loss Alabama team, whose playoff odds climbed from 65% to 71%, about a 9% relative increase. Alabama lost at home to Georgia in Week 6, then fell to Tennessee in Week 7 by 16 points as a [7.5-point favorite](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/alabama-vs-tennessee-prediction-pick-100333091.html). The 6-2 Crimson Tide still earned a higher ranking from the selection committee than undefeated UCLA and three 7-1 teams: Notre Dame, BYU, and Kentucky. Alabama visits AP No. 15 LSU on Saturday for its final regular-season matchup against a ranked opponent. The selection committee is, more or less, giving the Crimson Tide the win-out-and-you're-in treatment. A loss at LSU on Saturday—the Tigers are favored by 5.5 points—would really test that [favoritism](https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cfb-hq/news/sec-favoritism-claims-emerge-after-controversial-college-football-playoff-rankings-alabama-texas-ole-miss-tennessee) theory everyone outside Tuscaloosa has been floating the past 24 hours. The only other [three-loss team](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/alabama-first-3-loss-team-182650759.html) to earn an at-large CFP berth: 2025-26 Alabama. Notre Dame won its first six games against cellar-dweller opponents by an average of 33 points before losing to BYU, the only ranked program the Irish have seen this season. Since Provo, the question has been whether beating Miami—the only other ranked opponent on Notre Dame's schedule—is a must to make the playoff. The selection committee's unofficial answer: yes. Notre Dame's odds of making the playoff have fallen from 80% to 69% since Tuesday's rankings placed them at No. 11\. They are the last team in the projected field, with No. 25 Boise State taking the No. 12 seed through the Group of Six automatic berth. CFP selection committee chair Hunter Yurachek put it bluntly: "[They \[Notre Dame\] don't have that signature win right now. They lost in their only Top 25 matchup so far](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25529150-everything-cfp-committee-chair-said-about-notre-dame-ohio-state-alabama-more-after-1st-rankings)." Heading into Week 10's six matchups between AP-ranked teams, none looms larger for the playoff picture than No. 1 Miami's visit to Notre Dame. The Irish are favored by 6.5 points at home as Hurricanes receiver Malachi Toney, who has collected 1,027 yards and 13 touchdowns through eight games, is [uncertain to play](https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/%5F/id/50381248/sources-miami-toney-ankle-uncertain-notre-dame-game) due to an ankle injury. A loss could put Notre Dame alongside six of the market's 12 preseason playoff favorites already outside the projected field. Fans [hate](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/fans-absolutely-hate-college-football-184718042.html) the proposed 24-team CFP. Twenty-four sounds like too many. Until your favorite is No. 24\. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: The Recipe for Picking the World's Best Restaurant](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/world-s-best-restaurant-odds/)  ### The Recipe for Picking the World's Best Restaurant [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/world-s-best-restaurant-odds/) [Open article: Which Team Will Trade for Jonathan Taylor?](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/jonathan-taylor-trade-odds/)  ### Which Team Will Trade for Jonathan Taylor? [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/jonathan-taylor-trade-odds/) [Open article: College Basketball Is Betting on Experience](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/college-basketball-national-championship-odds/)  ### College Basketball Is Betting on Experience [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/college-basketball-national-championship-odds/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-first-cfp-rankings-are-in-here-s-how-the-odds-reacted/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-first-cfp-rankings-are-in-here-s-how-the-odds-reacted/"},"headline":"The CFP Rankings Put Favorites on Notice","datePublished":"2026-11-05T00:20:00.776Z","dateModified":"2026-11-05T00:20:01.189Z","description":"The committee's first rankings boosted Alabama's playoff odds and raised the stakes for Notre Dame's showdown with No. 1 Miami.","url":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-first-cfp-rankings-are-in-here-s-how-the-odds-reacted/","keywords":[],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt78eaae274f22aad9/6aeb7f5e3c8cbe3adfef9d9e/GettyImages-2300230744.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Annie Nader","jobTitle":"Prediction Markets Analyst","url":"https://time.com/author/annie-nader/"}],"articleSection":"Prediction Markets","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt78eaae274f22aad9/6aeb7f5e3c8cbe3adfef9d9e/GettyImages-2300230744.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"GettyImages-2300230744.jpg","caption":"","creditText":"Bryan Lynn—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-first-cfp-rankings-are-in-here-s-how-the-odds-reacted/","name":"The CFP Rankings Put Favorites on Notice"}}]}] ```