--- title: 2026 Emmy Odds: Predictions, Upsets, and Races to Watch description: See the 2026 Emmy odds from Kalshi, plus the biggest favorites, upset candidates, record chases, and the rule that could produce multiple winners. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-emmy-awards-promise-some-suspense/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-09-10T23:43:05.236Z article:modified_time: 2026-09-10T23:42:46.603Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: 2026 Emmy Odds: Predictions, Upsets, and Races to Watch og:description: See the 2026 Emmy odds from Kalshi, plus the biggest favorites, upset candidates, record chases, and the rule that could produce multiple winners. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-emmy-awards-promise-some-suspense/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blta62d3f9fd298a542/6aa30c08130d6155cc949a55/GettyImages-2234991686.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2234991686.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: 2026 Emmy Odds: Predictions, Upsets, and Races to Watch twitter:description: See the 2026 Emmy odds from Kalshi, plus the biggest favorites, upset candidates, record chases, and the rule that could produce multiple winners. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blta62d3f9fd298a542/6aa30c08130d6155cc949a55/GettyImages-2234991686.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # The Emmy Awards Promise (Some) Suspense > Sponsored content. 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They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Sep 10, 2026 11:43 PM UTC  Hannah Einbinder, Jean Smart for "Hacks", pose with the Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series and Lead Actress in a Comedy Series awards, respectively at the 77th Primetime Emmy Awards held at the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles, California on September 14, 2025. Hannah Einbinder, Jean Smart for "Hacks", pose with the Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series and Lead Actress in a Comedy Series awards, respectively at the 77th Primetime Emmy Awards held at the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles, California on September 14, 2025. Gilbert Flores—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Sep 10, 2026 11:43 PM UTC When [Amy Poehler's name was called at the 2011 Emmys](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyFyJqx1lpc), she gave the camera an exaggeratedly gracious nod and took the stage before the winner was revealed, shaking out her hands like a fighter entering the Octagon. The other nominees followed as their names were read, until all six stood hand in hand like nervous pageant contestants. Melissa McCarthy won, bouquet, tiara, Emmy and all. But the result was less memorable than the Miss America-meets-UFC bit—a reminder that a broadcast honoring great television should itself be great television. The Television Academy tends to rely on comedians such as [Poehler](https://ew.com/emmys/2019/09/20/emmys-2011-melissa-mccarthy-lead-actress-comedy-pageant/) to keep the ceremony from collapsing under its own reverence. But after television's biggest night was already bumped to a Monday to accommodate NBC's _Sunday Night Football_, the Academy took a red pen to its run of show—a decision that might have bought it some entertainment at the expense of suspense. The Academy has cut the primetime awards slate to 19 categories, down from 26 last year, in an "[effort to revitalize](https://variety.com/2026/tv/news/emmys-removes-categories-telecast-supporting-limited-acting-1236814429/)" the ceremony. Since some major awards were announced this past weekend, traders have been given clues about where voter support is running deepest. Kalshi now gives the favorite at least a 70% chance of winning in 15 of the 18 categories it's pricing for Monday. Even so, two acting races appear more unsettled than the market suggests, several favorites are chasing Emmy history, and one revamped category could deliver the strangest—and most memorable—moment of the night. ## Emmy Odds Below are the implied probabilities for each category's favorite, per Kalshi's [2026 Primetime Emmy odds](https://kalshi.com/category/culture/emmys). **Drama Series**—_The Pitt_: **94%** **Comedy Series**—_Widow's Bay_: **81%** **Variety Series**—_The Late Show with Stephen Colbert_: **75%** **Reality Competition Program**—_The Traitors_: **99%** **Limited or Anthology Series**—_DTF St. Louis_: **92%** **Directing for a Drama Series**—Vince Gilligan, _Pluribus_: **84%** **Directing for a Comedy Series**—Hiro Murai, _Widow's Bay_: **88%** **Writing for a Comedy Series**—Katie Dippold, _Widow's Bay_: **71%** **Lead Actor in a Drama Series**—Noah Wyle, _The Pitt_: **94%** **Lead Actor in a Comedy Series**—Matthew Rhys, _Widow's Bay_: **95%** **Lead Actress in a Drama Series**—Rhea Seehorn, _Pluribus_: **84%** **Lead Actress in a Comedy Series**—Jean Smart, _Hacks_: **93%** **Supporting Actor in a Drama Series** —Tom Pelphrey, _Task_: **45%** **Supporting Actress in a Drama Series** —Katherine LaNasa, _The Pitt_: **73%** **Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series** —Harrison Ford, _Shrinking_: **44%** **Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series** —Kate O'Flynn, _Widow's Bay_: **78%** **Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series**—Oscar Isaac, _Beef_: **73%** **Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series**—Carey Mulligan, _Beef_: **37%** More than $1.5 million has been traded across the 18 Emmy markets. There are only three categories in which the market favorite currently has less than a 70% chance: Supporting Actor in a Drama Series, Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series, and Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series. Part of that confidence comes from traders having more evidence to work with than usual. Last week, Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series was the closest race on the board: _DTF St. Louis_ at 51%, _Beef_ at 47%. Then _DTF St. Louis_ cleaned up over the weekend, picking up wins in categories for directing, writing, supporting actress, and supporting actor. Traders took those major category wins as evidence that Emmy voters are firmly behind _DTF St. Louis_, and its chances jumped from 51% to 92%. But for all the confidence across Kalshi's markets, a few acting favorites may be more vulnerable to an upset than their percentages suggest—and a key rule change could give the Emmys the best moment of the night. ## Emmy Races to Watch Matthew Rhys is nominated for his performances in _Widow's Bay_ and _The Beast in Me_—and could become the [first person in Emmy history to win two lead acting awards in the same year](https://variety.com/lists/emmys-voting-records-zendaya-allison-janney-harrison-ford/). Kalshi expects him to win Lead Actor in a Comedy Series(95%) but not Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series (21%). Another market is more optimistic that he makes history: FanDuel lists him at [+190](https://on.sportsbook.fanduel.ca/novelty?tab=awards) in the limited series race, which implies a 34.5% probability. Hannah Einbinder might be another dark horse to watch: she has a 16% chance to win Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series on Kalshi while her [+280 odds](https://on.sportsbook.fanduel.ca/novelty?tab=awards) at the book imply a 26.3% probability. Einbinder is defending the supporting-actress award for the final season of _Hacks_, which broke the [single-season comedy nomination record](https://deadline.com/2026/07/hacks-emmy-nominations-record-comedy-series-final-season-1236975392/) with 24\. Her co-star Jean Smart has a 93% probability of becoming the [first woman to win an acting Emmy for every season of a series](https://variety.com/lists/emmys-voting-records-zendaya-allison-janney-harrison-ford/). Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series is one of the three races the market can't call but essentially promises to crown your favorite actor's favorite actor. Harrison Ford (44%) and Stephen Root (43%) are separated by just one point for their performances in _Shrinking_ and _Widow's Bay_. Both actors have received two Emmy nominations in their careers but no trophy to show for it, and either would become the [oldest winner in the category's history](https://variety.com/lists/emmys-voting-records-zendaya-allison-janney-harrison-ford/). _The Late Show with Stephen Colbert_ is widely expected to win Outstanding Variety Series in a final season that earned nine nominations after CBS canceled the franchise. There's a 75% chance Colbert gives an acceptance speech—and a 33% chance another late night host gives one, too.  The Television Academy has merged Outstanding Talk Series and Outstanding Scripted Variety Series into a single category, Outstanding Variety Series. It also reclassified the category as an "[area award](https://www.televisionacademy.com/features/news/awards-news/260128-emmys-variety-rules?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com)," allowing voters to cast a yes-or-no vote for each nominee. If a nominee receives at least 90% "yes" votes, it will win an Emmy, which means any or all of Colbert, Jon Stewart, Jimmy Kimmel, and John Oliver could end up onstage together. Hopefully, the voters play along. The Emmys could use another pageant moment. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: The U.S. Open Wakes Up to Ben Shelton](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-us-open-wakes-up-to-ben-shelton/)  ### The U.S. Open Wakes Up to Ben Shelton [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-us-open-wakes-up-to-ben-shelton/) [Open article: NFL Season Opens With a Super Bowl Rematch](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nfl-season-starts-where-it-ended/)  ### NFL Season Opens With a Super Bowl Rematch [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nfl-season-starts-where-it-ended/) [Open article: The Oscars Start in Venice](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-oscars-start-in-venice/)  ### The Oscars Start in Venice [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-oscars-start-in-venice/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-emmy-awards-promise-some-suspense/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-emmy-awards-promise-some-suspense/"},"headline":"The Emmy Awards Promise (Some) Suspense","datePublished":"2026-09-10T23:43:05.236Z","dateModified":"2026-09-10T23:42:46.603Z","description":"Most Emmy races look settled. 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