--- title: 2026 World Series and NLCS Odds: Dodgers, Brewers, Guardians, Rays description: The Dodgers trail the Brewers 2-0 in the NLCS, but prediction markets still give Los Angeles better World Series odds than either American League team despite Shohei Ohtani's slump. Here's what the odds and MLB history reveal about their chances. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-dodgers-are-finally-underdogs/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-10-13T22:46:41.333Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-13T22:46:37.258Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: 2026 World Series and NLCS Odds: Dodgers, Brewers, Guardians, Rays og:description: The Dodgers trail the Brewers 2-0 in the NLCS, but prediction markets still give Los Angeles better World Series odds than either American League team despite Shohei Ohtani's slump. Here's what the odds and MLB history reveal about their chances. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-dodgers-are-finally-underdogs/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt03a8408f65acece2/6aceb10bf400d9c0176516fe/GettyImages-2299248099.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2299248099.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: 2026 World Series and NLCS Odds: Dodgers, Brewers, Guardians, Rays twitter:description: The Dodgers trail the Brewers 2-0 in the NLCS, but prediction markets still give Los Angeles better World Series odds than either American League team despite Shohei Ohtani's slump. Here's what the odds and MLB history reveal about their chances. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt03a8408f65acece2/6aceb10bf400d9c0176516fe/GettyImages-2299248099.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # The Dodgers Are Finally Underdogs. Sort Of. > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Subscription: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition TIME is a general-interest news organization founded in 1923, reporting on the people, ideas and issues shaping the world. A TIME subscription provides full access to that journalism in print and digital, from $20 a year, and can be cancelled at any time. 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They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-sub-2026q3/newsletters?i=87ee3185-73b0-44b5-932d-e7ffa8f51620&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) * TIME Subscriptions: [time.com/subscribe-agent](/c/time-sub-2026q3/subscribe?i=87ee3185-73b0-44b5-932d-e7ffa8f51620&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Oct 13, 2026 10:46 PM UTC  Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Dodgers looks on during Game One of the National League Championship Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin on Sunday, October 11, 2026. Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Dodgers looks on during Game One of the National League Championship Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin on Sunday, October 11, 2026. Aaron Gash—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Oct 13, 2026 10:46 PM UTC Last October, Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts celebrated a World Series berth with a message for the pocket watchers: "[Let's get four more wins and really ruin baseball.](https://www.foxsports.com/stories/mlb/dodgers-manager-dave-roberts-blue-jays-theyre-very-similar-our-club)" In a league with no hard salary cap, the Dodgers hand out nine-figure contracts with all the plate discipline of Pablo Sandoval. Los Angeles had already committed [more than $1 billion](https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/los-angeles-dodgers/overview) to Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts before signing Kyle Tucker to the [largest per-year deal](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/broken-record-dodgers-land-top-free-agent-kyle-tucker-while-setting-a-new-contract-standard/) in league history this past offseason. For those who believe the back-to-back World Series champions' spending habits are skewing competitive balance, this postseason came with the receipts: Los Angeles' [$339 million payroll](https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/%5F/year/2026) is higher than those of the remaining three playoff teams combined. Los Angeles has been monopolizing more than the free-agent market. According to [Fanatics Sportsbook](https://x.com/FanaticsSports/status/2109483514039001477?s=42), the Dodgers were the lone World Series favorite on 1,039 of 1,045 days entering the NLCS dating back to December 2023\. For perspective, the [Super Bowl](https://www.covers.com/sportsoddshistory/nfl-reg/?y=2026&sa=nfl&a=sb&p=pre) favorite has changed at least 13 times over that same stretch. Nearly three years later, meet your new World Series favorite: the Milwaukee Brewers. Milwaukee's relievers have not allowed a run through 9 2/3 NLCS innings, including five perfect frames to close out Game 2\. The NLCS MVP is an individual award, but the Brewers' bullpen is making a case for a rule change. Prediction-market traders aren't ready to hand out any trophies just yet. Milwaukee has replaced Los Angeles as the World Series favorite, but the Dodgers still have better championship odds than either American League team—and a much higher chance of an NLCS comeback than history suggests. That is a lot of faith in a team that may be without its best player in Game 3\. ## World Series Odds Below are the [2026 World Series odds](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmlb/world-series/kxmlb-26), per Kalshi.  The Brewers lead the Dodgers 2-0 in the NLCS. The Guardians lead the Rays 1-0 in the ALCS. Traders would rather be two games down with the Dodgers than one game up with the Guardians. Say every remaining postseason game were a 50-50 proposition. The Guardians would have a 32.8% chance of winning the World Series; the market has them at 17.7%. The Dodgers would have a 9.4% chance; the market has them at 20.7%. Even in a slump, against playoff competition, the Dodgers are still considered anything but an even matchup. The market's faith in a three-peat has some statistical support. Los Angeles' offense has posted a .264 [weighted on-base average](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2026&season1=2026&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0&sortcol=15&sortdir=default&postseason=) this postseason compared to its .334 mark in the regular season. Regression may strike just in time for a three-game homestand, where the Dodgers went 51-30 this season. Los Angeles would also have home-field advantage in the World Series, regardless of which American League team advances. That helps explain why the Dodgers have a higher chance of winning four of their next five games and going on to win the World Series than the Guardians have of protecting their 1-0 lead and doing the same. The market isn't just taking a swing at the middling-for-this-stage Guardians, though. Traders are giving the Dodgers a much better chance of overcoming a 2-0 deficit against the 103-win Brewers than history would suggest.  [Sixteen of 95 teams](https://www.mlb.com/news/2-to-0-deficit-baseball-playoff-rallies-c297376582) have recovered from a 2-0 deficit in a best-of-seven series, a 16.8% comeback rate. That falls to 15.0% across the ALCS and NLCS. The market gives the Dodgers a 30% chance of winning the NLCS. The Dodgers are priced as an extreme outlier, even as their [$700 million superstar](https://www.mlb.com/news/shohei-ohtani-contract-with-dodgers) potentially eyes a slump-induced benching. Shohei Ohtani has recorded one RBI since August 19\. That's one RBI over his past 90 at-bats, compared with 20 over the previous 90\. Ohtani has now gone a career-high 110 plate appearances without hitting a home run while dealing with lingering knee and biceps injuries. The Dodgers are [reportedly](https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/%5F/id/50171187/dodgers-shohei-ohtani-nlcs-game-3-playing-status-health) considering keeping Ohtani out of the starting lineup for Game 3\. Dave Roberts knows a thing or two about how one well-timed [pinch move](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMEylcp7E7s) can change a series. You can almost see how this slump saga plays out. Roberts sits Ohtani, calls on him to pinch-hit in a favorable handedness matchup, and Dodger Stadium watches 90 at-bats of frustration disappear over the right-field wall. That's the ultimate Roberts-and-Dodger ending, anyway. Only three of the 40 teams that have faced a 2-0 deficit in the championship series went on to win the World Series. Roberts was behind two of those comebacks with the 2004 Red Sox and 2020 Dodgers. Either Roberts and Co. pull off the first three-peat since the turn of the century, or baseball gets its lowest-ranked World Series champion by payroll in at least 23 years, including a Brewers or Rays win that would mark the first title in franchise history. If the Dodgers are ruining baseball, this is a must-watch demolition. ## ## ## --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: What NBA MVP Voters Really Value](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nba-mvp-race-is-more-predictable-than-you-think/)  ### What NBA MVP Voters Really Value [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nba-mvp-race-is-more-predictable-than-you-think/) [Open article: Oura's IPO Delay Is a Wake-Up Call for Prediction Markets](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/oura-ipo-delay-gives-prediction-markets-a-wake-up-call/)  ### Oura's IPO Delay Is a Wake-Up Call for Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/oura-ipo-delay-gives-prediction-markets-a-wake-up-call/) [Open article: Why the Nobel Peace Prize Is Drawing Millions in Bets](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/nobel-peace-prize-betting-surges-after-last-years-suspected-breach/)  ### Why the Nobel Peace Prize Is Drawing Millions in Bets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/nobel-peace-prize-betting-surges-after-last-years-suspected-breach/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-dodgers-are-finally-underdogs/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-dodgers-are-finally-underdogs/"},"headline":"The Dodgers Are Finally Underdogs. 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