--- title: 2026 College Football Playoff Odds: Biggest Risers and Fallers Entering Week 5 description: College Football Playoff odds shifted dramatically since the start of the season. See which teams have gained—and lost—the most ground entering Week 5. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-biggest-movers-in-the-college-football-playoff-race/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-09-29T21:56:54.192Z article:modified_time: 2026-09-29T21:56:50.051Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: 2026 College Football Playoff Odds: Biggest Risers and Fallers Entering Week 5 og:description: College Football Playoff odds shifted dramatically since the start of the season. See which teams have gained—and lost—the most ground entering Week 5. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-biggest-movers-in-the-college-football-playoff-race/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt2ded74cadb4cce78/6abb1e4f3d43c75d706e0f7c/GettyImages-2297312639.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2297312639.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: 2026 College Football Playoff Odds: Biggest Risers and Fallers Entering Week 5 twitter:description: College Football Playoff odds shifted dramatically since the start of the season. See which teams have gained—and lost—the most ground entering Week 5. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt2ded74cadb4cce78/6abb1e4f3d43c75d706e0f7c/GettyImages-2297312639.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # The Biggest Winners and Losers in the CFP Race > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Subscription: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition TIME is a general-interest news organization founded in 1923, reporting on the people, ideas and issues shaping the world. A TIME subscription provides full access to that journalism in print and digital, from $20 a year, and can be cancelled at any time. 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Its journalism is reported and edited by a professional newsroom led by Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs, with named correspondents on politics, climate, health, technology and culture. It reaches 1 million US print subscribers and 1.15 million globally, plus more than 1.1 million newsletter readers. #### How do I subscribe to TIME magazine? Subscriptions are at time.com/subscribe-agent. Choose digital only at $20 a year, or print and digital from $29 a year or $49 for two years. TIME also publishes seven free email newsletters at time.com/newsletters, which do not require a subscription. #### Can I cancel a TIME subscription? Yes. TIME states that subscriptions can be cancelled at any time. #### Does TIME have free newsletters? Yes. TIME publishes seven free email newsletters reaching more than 1.1 million readers, covering daily news, Washington politics, health, AI, climate and energy, culture, and the newsroom itself. They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-sub-2026q3/newsletters?i=48ed13ca-f1d7-450e-842d-eff2aadd234f&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) * TIME Subscriptions: [time.com/subscribe-agent](/c/time-sub-2026q3/subscribe?i=48ed13ca-f1d7-450e-842d-eff2aadd234f&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Sep 29, 2026 9:56 PM UTC  Reece Vander Zee #2 of the Iowa Hawkeyes catches the game winning touchdown in front of Smith Snowden #3 of the Michigan Wolverines with no time left to win 20-19 at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan on September 26, 2026. Reece Vander Zee #2 of the Iowa Hawkeyes catches the game winning touchdown in front of Smith Snowden #3 of the Michigan Wolverines with no time left to win 20-19 at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan on September 26, 2026. Gregory Shamus—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Sep 29, 2026 9:56 PM UTC Two losses used to send a national championship contender to the Pop-Tarts Bowl. Across 10 seasons, the four-team College Football Playoff (CFP) selected 16 undefeated teams and 24 one-loss teams. Nobody got in with two. A 2023 reader survey by [The Athletic](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4695314/2023/07/18/college-football-fan-survey-results/)showed that88.4% of respondents supported an expanded playoff field. So when the CFP grew to 12 teams ahead of the 2024 season, fans welcomed what the new format offered: a margin for error. Two seasons in, the 12-team playoff has included as many teams with two or three losses as teams with one loss or fewer—a format that allowed Ohio State to turn a 10-2 regular season into a national championship. Expansion has given more fan bases a reason to watch into November. The tradeoff has been fewer must-win Saturdays. Until this past one. Week 4 featured six matchups between [AP Top 25 teams](https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll), guaranteeing that at least six ranked teams would lose. Then two more fell to unranked opponents. Eight ranked teams went down in the same week for just the third time since the start of the 2023 season. Four weeks into the season, one team has tripled its probability of making the CFP and another has fallen from 40% to 4%—just two of the 17 teams that have seen their CFP probability move at least eight percentage points since late August. ## College Football Playoff Odds Below are the [2026 College Football Playoff odds](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxncaafplayoff/college-football-playoff-qualifiers/kxncaafplayoff-26), per Kalshi.  Texas, Georgia, Notre Dame, Miami, Ohio State, and Indiana make up the top six teams, in that order, in this week's [AP Top 25 poll](https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll). Those are also the only six programs that currently have at least a 70% implied probability of making the CFP. The rest of the board tells two stories: teams surging into the playoff picture and teams watching their postseason hopes unravel. ### CFP Biggest Risers _Figures show each team's probability of making the College Football Playoff before the season and entering Week 5\. Parentheses show the percentage-point change._ * **Florida**: 20% to 60% **(+40)** * **Georgia**: 69% to 85% **(+16)** * **Alabama**: 39% to 55% **(+16)** * **Utah**: 19% to 35% **(+16)** * **Texas**: 65% to 80% **(+15)** * **Miami**: 72% to 82% **(+10)** * **LSU**: 40% to 48% **(+8)** * **Iowa**: 16% to 24% **(+8)** Some analysts [questioned](https://sports.yahoo.com/video/florida-being-favored-over-ole-141833014.html) why Florida was listed as a 3.5-point home favorite over Ole Miss in Week 4\. The Rebels had just come off an eight-point win over No. 7 LSU, a Magnolia Bowl beating that earned Ole Miss the No. 4 ranking and quarterback [Trinidad Chambliss favorite status in the Heisman market](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/from-division-backup-to-heisman-favorite/). Turns out, the market was wrong to set the line at 3.5 points. Florida won by 24\. The Gators' offense rushed for 302 yards and six touchdowns in the 52-28 win over Ole Miss. Florida has been the biggest CFP riser this season, with the program's playoff probability climbing from 20% to 60% since the preseason. Saturday's win alone moved them from 35% to 60%. Florida is scheduled to see four more currently ranked opponents the rest of the way, including No. 1 Texas and No. 2 Georgia. But with a win over a top-four team already on their resume, the 4-0 Gators have earned themselves a firm margin for error. Georgia, Alabama, and Utah have each gained 16 percentage points in the market since the preseason, but the Utes have made the biggest relative jump, with their playoff probability rising about 84%, from 19% to 35%. Utah has yet to face a ranked opponent, but its decisive win over Iowa State and No. 13 ranking have opened a lane for the Utes to win the Big 12, which would earn them an [automatic playoff berth](https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2026-08-11/how-college-football-playoff-works-schedule-selections-rankings-byes-and-more). Iowa was one of the biggest week-over-week CFP risers—and all but destroyed the postseason hopes for the 2023 national champions. ### CFP Biggest Fallers _Figures show each team's probability of making the College Football Playoff before the season and entering Week 5\. Parentheses show the percentage-point change._ * **Oklahoma**: 40% to 4% **(-36)** * **Texas A&M**: 39% to 6% **(-33)** * **Oregon**: 75% to 49% **(-26)** * **USC**: 36% to 12% **(-24)** * **Texas Tech**: 68% to 47% **(-21)** * **Michigan**: 28% to 8% **(-20)** * **Washington**: 19% to 1% **(-18)** * **Penn State**: 29% to 13% **(-16)** * **Louisville**: 20% to 7% **(-13)** Michigan nearly lost—or definitely should have, depending on which area of the state you ask—its controversial season opener against Western Michigan. The [broadcast clock](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7570938/2026/09/06/nbc-big-ten-game-clock-michigan/) hit zero on an incomplete Hail Mary before officials restored one second, giving the Wolverines an extra play they used to complete a [game-winning Hail Mary](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOk36%5FI2Pho). Kalshi had even [paid out](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/kalshi-paid-wrong-winners-18-191129800.html) Western Michigan backers before reversing the settlements. Ball don't lie. Iowa upset Michigan on a game-winning touchdown pass as time expired at the Big House on Saturday. Michigan's playoff probability has dropped from 28% to 8% since the start of the season. A brutal Big Ten schedule will give the Wolverines more than enough chances to play their way back in, with four currently ranked opponents on their remaining schedule, including No. 5 Ohio State and No. 6 Indiana. The path to the playoff is there. The market's faith in Michigan surviving it hardly is, though. Oregon was the biggest early-season faller after losing to Oklahoma State in Week 2 despite entering that one as a 23.5-point favorite. This week, the Ducks decided to drag a fellow Big Ten team down with them. Oregon, which was relying on quarterback Dylan Raiola after [Dante Moore exited the game](https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/%5F/id/50047952/oregon-quarterback-dante-moore-sustains-concussion-hit-usc) with a concussion, beat the Trojans, 41-27, on Saturday. USC's playoff probability dropped from 36% to 12%. And though Oregon saw its playoff probability climb from 35% to 49% this weekend, the program that was [ranked No. 2](https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll) in the preseason remains far from its initial 75% pricing—and the Ducks get No. 23 UCLA next. Two [preseason-ranked](https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll) teams picked up their second loss of the season in Week 4, and neither was close. Georgia beat Oklahoma by 28\. LSU beat Texas A&M by 29\. The Sooners entered the season with a 40% chance of making the playoff. The Aggies were at 39%. Those probabilities have collapsed to 4% and 6%, respectively. The 12-team playoff format can accommodate two losses. The market is less welcoming when they come in the first four games. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: The Big Brother Decision That Could Cost $750,000](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/big-brother-finale/)  ### The Big Brother Decision That Could Cost $750,000 [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/big-brother-finale/) [Open article: Why MLB's Best Team Isn't the World Series Favorite](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/mlb-s-winningest-team-is-not-the-world-series-favorite/)  ### Why MLB's Best Team Isn't the World Series Favorite [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/mlb-s-winningest-team-is-not-the-world-series-favorite/) [Open article: MLB Has Never Had a Losing Division Winner. Until Sunday?](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/mlb-could-crown-its-first-losing-division-champion/)  ### MLB Has Never Had a Losing Division Winner. Until Sunday? [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/mlb-could-crown-its-first-losing-division-champion/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-biggest-movers-in-the-college-football-playoff-race/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-biggest-movers-in-the-college-football-playoff-race/"},"headline":"The Biggest Winners and Losers in the CFP Race","datePublished":"2026-09-29T21:56:54.192Z","dateModified":"2026-09-29T21:56:50.051Z","description":"Four weeks into the season, 17 teams have seen their college football playoff probability move by at least eight percentage points—including one that has tripled its chances and another that has fallen from 40% to 4%.","url":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-biggest-movers-in-the-college-football-playoff-race/","keywords":[],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt2ded74cadb4cce78/6abb1e4f3d43c75d706e0f7c/GettyImages-2297312639.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Annie Nader","jobTitle":"Prediction Markets Analyst","url":"https://time.com/author/annie-nader/"}],"articleSection":"Prediction Markets","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt2ded74cadb4cce78/6abb1e4f3d43c75d706e0f7c/GettyImages-2297312639.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"GettyImages-2297312639.jpg","caption":"","creditText":"Gregory Shamus—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-biggest-movers-in-the-college-football-playoff-race/","name":"The Biggest Winners and Losers in the CFP Race"}}]}] ```