--- title: 2026 AFC Division Odds: Chiefs, Bills, Ravens Favored Again description: See the latest 2026 AFC East, AFC North, AFC South, and AFC West odds, with the Bills, Ravens, Texans, and Chiefs entering as division favorites. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-afc-has-new-division-champions-and-the-same-old-favorites/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-09-02T02:01:23.665Z article:modified_time: 2026-09-02T02:00:44.994Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: 2026 AFC Division Odds: Chiefs, Bills, Ravens Favored Again og:description: See the latest 2026 AFC East, AFC North, AFC South, and AFC West odds, with the Bills, Ravens, Texans, and Chiefs entering as division favorites. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-afc-has-new-division-champions-and-the-same-old-favorites/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt27a97714b073c3ed/6a970d94a44fab815bab5531/GettyImages-2249113218.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2249113218.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: 2026 AFC Division Odds: Chiefs, Bills, Ravens Favored Again twitter:description: See the latest 2026 AFC East, AFC North, AFC South, and AFC West odds, with the Bills, Ravens, Texans, and Chiefs entering as division favorites. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt27a97714b073c3ed/6a970d94a44fab815bab5531/GettyImages-2249113218.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # The AFC Has New Division Champions—and the Same Old Favorites > Sponsored content. 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They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Sep 2, 2026 2:01 AM UTC  Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals and Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens greet following the game at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland on November 27, 2025. Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals and Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens greet following the game at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland on November 27, 2025.Ishika Samant—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Sep 2, 2026 2:01 AM UTC The AFC has long run through Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson. Last season, it ran past them. Now the market is deciding whether the conference took a mere detour or a new direction. From 2020 to 2024, those quarterbacks won 14 of 15 possible division titles across their three divisions: five straight AFC West crowns for the Kansas City Chiefs, five straight in the East for the Buffalo Bills, and four of five in the North split between the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens. None of those quarterbacks won their division in 2025\. Neither did any [AFC preseason division favorite](https://www.covers.com/sportsoddshistory/nfl-division/?y=2025&sa=nfl&a=dv&p=pre). That clean sweep against the chalk was about as unlikely as both the New York Jets and Tennessee Titans—two teams that instead combined for six wins and a whole lot of mock drafts—[making the playoffs](https://www.covers.com/sportsoddshistory/nfl-win/?y=2025&sa=nfl&t=post). Entering the 2026 season, the AFC divisions are anything but settled: an East with a Super Bowl team that isn't favored, a North without its 19-year guarantee, a South priced for January but not February, and a West the market may need a three-sided coin to call. ## AFC East Odds Below are the [2026 AFC East odds](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflafceast/american-football-conference-east-winner/kxnflafceast-27), per Kalshi.  You need four teams to complete a division. The Miami Dolphins and New York Jets provide little more than aesthetic balance in the AFC East. Miami entered last season with Mike McDaniel as head coach, Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, and Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle out wide. One year later, none remain. The rebuilding Dolphins are [projected to finish with the NFL's worst record](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrecordnflworst/worst-football-record/kxrecordnflworst-27), while the Jets will turn to Geno Smith under center. Together, the two teams have just a 6% implied probability of winning the AFC East, effectively reducing the division to the only two franchises that have won it over the past 17 seasons: the Bills and New England Patriots. Drake Maye and Co. defied [+550 AFC East preseason odds](https://www.covers.com/sportsoddshistory/nfl-division/?y=2025&sa=nfl&a=dv&p=pre) last season, turning an ahead-of-schedule arrival into an on-brand Patriots destination: the Super Bowl. But New England's fast track came with a soft schedule: just four of its 17 games were against teams that ultimately reached the playoffs, and the Patriots went 2-2 in those matchups before running into injury-depleted opponents in the postseason. For a group that has already played in February, the Patriots have had few chances to prove themselves battle-tested. Kalshi's market gives Allen and the Bills a 56% chance to reclaim the AFC East title this season. ## AFC North Odds Below are the [2026 AFC North odds](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflafcnorth/american-football-conference-north-winner/kxnflafcnorth-27), per Kalshi.  [Mike Tomlin stepped down as Pittsburgh Steelers head coach](https://www.steelers.com/news/statement-from-steelers-president-art-rooney-ii-x1216) following last season. The market thinks the Steelers' unofficial ".500-or-better" rule may go with him. Tomlin never posted a losing record in [19 seasons](https://www.jt-sw.com/football/pro/teams.nsf/histories/steelers) with the Steelers. That consistency made Pittsburgh nearly impossible to count out in the AFC North, regardless of roster. The Steelers won the division last season despite +550 odds. But with Tomlin gone and Aaron Rodgers set to turn 43 this season, the market is pricing the division back toward the Ravens and Bengals. Jackson missed four games, [Burrow missed nine](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nfl-mvp-race-starts-and-ends-under-center/), and both the Ravens and Bengals fell short of the playoffs despite entering last season with the shortest and eighth-shortest [odds to win the Super Bowl](https://www.covers.com/sportsoddshistory/nfl-main/?y=2025&sa=nfl&a=sb&p=pre). If Jackson and Burrow stay healthy this go-around, the AFC North could be the league's tightest two-team divisional race. The market currently has Baltimore favored at 48%, though Cincinnati holds a scheduling edge: a bye leading into its Week 7 matchup against the Ravens. ## AFC South Odds Below are the [2026 AFC South odds](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflafcsouth/american-football-conference-south-winner/kxnflafcsouth-27), per Kalshi.  The Houston Texans were [favored](https://www.covers.com/sportsoddshistory/nfl-division-reg/?y=2025&sa=nfl&a=dv) in Weeks 1 and 2\. The Indianapolis Colts were favored from Weeks 3 to 14\. By Week 18, the Jacksonville Jaguars had won the 2025 AFC South title. Some divisions crown the most dominant team. The AFC South tends to crown the least flawed. And though no team in the division carries even a 5% implied [probability to win the Super Bowl](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/super-bowl-odds-rams-separate-from-the-field/), a division title still comes with a postseason ticket. The Texans lead the market at 47% and may be one of the league's biggest wild cards. Will Anderson Jr. anchors one of the NFL's best defenses—[Pro Football Focus](https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-defensive-line-rankings-2026) ranks Houston's defensive line second—while C.J. Stroud is three seasons removed from winning Offensive Rookie of the Year and one season removed from looking anything like it. The Texans' defense gives the team a high enough floor to earn favorite status in a lackluster division. Whichever version of Stroud shows up in Year 4 could determine whether Houston survives the South or separates from it. ## AFC West Odds Below are the [2026 AFC West odds](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflafcwest/american-football-conference-west-winner/kxnflafcwest-27), per Kalshi.  Now for the three-sided coin flip: the Chiefs sit at 33%, the Denver Broncos at 32%, and the Los Angeles Chargers at 32% to win the AFC West. The AFC South has a clear favorite without a heavyweight. The AFC West has three. That divisional imbalance is even more obvious on the Super Bowl odds board, where no South team clears 5% and all three West contenders do. The Chiefs are not the same Chiefs that made three straight Super Bowl appearances from 2022 to 2024, but regression could work in their favor this season. In 2024, Kansas City went 11-0 in one-score games—an unsustainable run even with Mahomes on the favorable side of variance. Then last season, the margins flipped, and Kansas City finished with a 1-9 record in one-score games before [Mahomes went down with a torn ACL in Week 15](https://www.nfl.com/news/chiefs-qb-patrick-mahomes-undergoes-successful-surgery-to-repair-acl-lcl). [Mahomes is reportedly on track to play Week 1](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/%5F/id/49724277/patrick-mahomes-feeling-great-track-start-week-1) and returns to an offense that [added reigning Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III](https://www.espn.ph/nfl/story/%5F/id/48153803/chiefs-kenneth-walker-iii-running-back-seahawks-free-agency). The Bills are favored in the East. The Ravens are favored in the North. The Chiefs are narrowly favored in the West. The conference took a detour last season. The odds say it was nothing more. ## ## ## ## --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: Italy's 60-Year Wait Drives a Mercedes](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/italy-s-60-year-wait-drives-a-mercedes/)  ### Italy's 60-Year Wait Drives a Mercedes [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/italy-s-60-year-wait-drives-a-mercedes/) [Open article: What Prediction Markets Say About Every NFC Division](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nfc-s-divisions-dont-add-up/)  ### What Prediction Markets Say About Every NFC Division [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nfc-s-divisions-dont-add-up/) [Open article: College Football National Championship Odds](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/college-football-moves-the-goalposts-again/)  ### College Football National Championship Odds [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/college-football-moves-the-goalposts-again/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-afc-has-new-division-champions-and-the-same-old-favorites/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-afc-has-new-division-champions-and-the-same-old-favorites/"},"headline":"The AFC Has New Division Champions—and the Same Old Favorites","datePublished":"2026-09-02T02:01:23.665Z","dateModified":"2026-09-02T02:00:44.994Z","description":"The Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, and Kansas City Chiefs are favored to reclaim their divisions after a 2025 season that scrambled the AFC hierarchy.","url":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-afc-has-new-division-champions-and-the-same-old-favorites/","keywords":[],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt27a97714b073c3ed/6a970d94a44fab815bab5531/GettyImages-2249113218.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Annie Nader","jobTitle":"Prediction Markets Analyst","url":"https://time.com/author/annie-nader/"}],"articleSection":"Prediction Markets","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt27a97714b073c3ed/6a970d94a44fab815bab5531/GettyImages-2249113218.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"GettyImages-2249113218.jpg","caption":"","creditText":"Ishika Samant—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-afc-has-new-division-champions-and-the-same-old-favorites/","name":"The AFC Has New Division Champions—and the Same Old Favorites"}}]}] ```