--- title: 2026 VMAs Predictions: Taylor Swift Performance and Video of the Year Odds description: Taylor Swift will premiere her "Patient Zero" music video at the 2026 VMAs. Prediction markets also expect a surprise performance and another historic win. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/taylor-swift-brings-the-music-video-back-to-mtv/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-09-24T21:27:48.743Z article:modified_time: 2026-09-24T21:27:31.707Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: 2026 VMAs Predictions: Taylor Swift Performance and Video of the Year Odds og:description: Taylor Swift will premiere her "Patient Zero" music video at the 2026 VMAs. Prediction markets also expect a surprise performance and another historic win. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/taylor-swift-brings-the-music-video-back-to-mtv/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt7e9f87b5cfbbdf69/6ab4570c3d43c779176de86d/GettyImages-2171438586.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2171438586.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: 2026 VMAs Predictions: Taylor Swift Performance and Video of the Year Odds twitter:description: Taylor Swift will premiere her "Patient Zero" music video at the 2026 VMAs. Prediction markets also expect a surprise performance and another historic win. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt7e9f87b5cfbbdf69/6ab4570c3d43c779176de86d/GettyImages-2171438586.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # Taylor Swift Brings the Music Video Back to MTV > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Subscription: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition TIME is a general-interest news organization founded in 1923, reporting on the people, ideas and issues shaping the world. A TIME subscription provides full access to that journalism in print and digital, from $20 a year, and can be cancelled at any time. 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Its journalism is reported and edited by a professional newsroom led by Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs, with named correspondents on politics, climate, health, technology and culture. It reaches 1 million US print subscribers and 1.15 million globally, plus more than 1.1 million newsletter readers. #### How do I subscribe to TIME magazine? Subscriptions are at time.com/subscribe-agent. Choose digital only at $20 a year, or print and digital from $29 a year or $49 for two years. TIME also publishes seven free email newsletters at time.com/newsletters, which do not require a subscription. #### Can I cancel a TIME subscription? Yes. TIME states that subscriptions can be cancelled at any time. #### Does TIME have free newsletters? Yes. TIME publishes seven free email newsletters reaching more than 1.1 million readers, covering daily news, Washington politics, health, AI, climate and energy, culture, and the newsroom itself. They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-sub-2026q3/newsletters?i=6f72fdbb-2648-459a-bb5b-da193b3f4489&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) * TIME Subscriptions: [time.com/subscribe-agent](/c/time-sub-2026q3/subscribe?i=6f72fdbb-2648-459a-bb5b-da193b3f4489&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Sep 24, 2026 9:27 PM UTC  Taylor Swift poses with her awards backstage during the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards at UBS Arena in Elmont, New York on September 11, 2024. Taylor Swift poses with her awards backstage during the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards at UBS Arena in Elmont, New York on September 11, 2024. Kevin Mazur—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Sep 24, 2026 9:27 PM UTC Bette Midler and Dan Aykroyd hosted. "Thriller" beat "Girls Just Want to Have Fun" for best performance. Madonna descended from a 17-foot wedding cake for "Like a Virgin," a performance that would receive scattered, hesitant applause from the audience. A [career-ender](https://people.com/music/madonna-recalls-career-over-like-a-virgin-mtv-1984/), according to her manager backstage. A [blueprint](https://people.com/mtv-vmas-2024-style-throwbacks-tributes-8710744), according to the pop stars who followed. It was an unmistakably '80s debut for the Video Music Awards and the network behind them, both of which would become synonymous with late '90s and early-aughts culture. In 2002, MTV was the [top-rated cable network](https://www.nexttv.com/news/lifetime-takes-2002-ratings-crown-162508) among adults 18 to 34\. By 2025, it ranked [25th](https://nz.news.yahoo.com/top-rated-television-networks-ranking-183000646.html) among that demographic. Eventually, its biggest night became easier to miss. After drawing a record 12.4 million viewers in 2011, the VMAs reached just [3.9 million](https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/mtv-vmas-simulcast-ratings-tick-214552493.html) in 2022\. And though the [most iconic VMA moments](https://time.com/video/GbfJ2Vp5/) have found a new life online, the generation that turned [Nicki Minaj's unscripted](https://time.com/4016582/vmas-2015-nicki-minaj-miley-cyrus/) "Miley, what's good?" into a staple reaction GIF better remembers MTV as the _Jersey Shore_ rerun channel—and even that feels retro. So what are the VMAs to do when nobody watches music videos on cable anymore? Call Taylor Swift—and convince her to premiere her new music video on live television. > [](https://twitter.com/taylorswift13/status/2103091036163842287?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2103091036163842287%7Ctwgr%5Ef9a6a99cae7f1bf9d065b09222a65f9baa765c01%7Ctwcon%5Es1%5F&ref%5Furl=https%3A%2F%2Fdeadline.com%2F2026%2F09%2Ftaylor-swift-patient-zero-music-video-1237112373%2F) The Swiftie detectives suspected something was up when the [VMAs X account tweeted](https://x.com/vmas/status/2102462098991399064?s=42) on Tuesday, "I've got some tricks up my sleeve," a reference to [lyrics](https://genius.com/Taylor-swift-cowboy-like-me-lyrics) from Swift's "Cowboy Like Me." Now, it's official: Swift will debut the music video for her new song "Patient Zero" during Sunday's ceremony. Swift directs and stars in the music video, alongside Dakota Johnson and Colin Farrell. If the fans who have helped Swift's past music videos rack up more than [65 million views in 24 hours](https://www.billboard.com/music/pop/taylor-swift-me-video-youtube-record-24-hours-solo-female-artist-8509012/) want to see "Patient Zero" first, they'll need to tune in when MTV tells them to. The Swift boost comes as the VMAs are already staging a comeback. Last year's show aired live on CBS and was simulcast on MTV and streamed on Paramount+, which helped lift the audience to 5.5 million viewers, the show's largest in six years. This Sunday, CBS will give the VMAs an NFL lead-in from the Cowboys-Ravens game in Brazil before [Madonna opens the ceremony](https://www.billboard.com/music/awards/madonna-2026-vmas-opening-performer-1236341723/) with her first VMAs performance in 23 years. More than $1.2 million has already been traded on VMA-related prediction markets, and traders are betting Swift won't stop at the "Patient Zero" premiere. ### Will Taylor Swift Perform at the VMAs? Below are the odds for [who will perform at the 2026 VMAs](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxperformvma/who-will-perform-the-vmas/kxperformvma-26), per Kalshi.  Swifties have two guarantees for Sunday: Taylor Swift will premiere the "Patient Zero" music video and end the night as the most-awarded artist in VMA history, breaking her 30-award tie with Beyonce. It has not been confirmed whether Swift will actually attend the ceremony, but the [expectation](https://abcnews.com/GMA/Culture/taylor-swift-honored-2026-mtv-video-music-awards/story?id=136625459) is that she will be in the building to accept the inaugural [Artist Director Honors](https://deadline.com/2026/09/taylor-swift-vma-artist-director-honors-1237109638/). The market believes Swift has one more trick up her sleeve: a performance. Swift has consistently used the VMA stage to surprise fans, even [announcing the _Midnights_ album](https://time.com/6209270/taylor-swift-midnights-album/) during a 2022 acceptance speech. She has not, however, performed at the VMAs since 2019\. Traders are pricing in a 74% chance that Swift performs this Sunday, and they're about as confident that she'll take home the night's biggest prize, too. ### VMAs: Video of the Year Below are the [2026 VMA Video of the Year odds](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxvma/who-will-win-vma-award-/kxvma-voty26), per Kalshi.  The VMAs leave a few [professional categories](https://vote.mtv.com/) to industry voters. The rest are decided on by a [fan vote](https://vote.mtv.com/), where fans can cast up to 10 votes per day on each category. And while a YouTube view does not equal a VMA vote, the view counts can offer a sense of which nominees have the largest and most active audiences to mobilize. By that measure, Swift's "The Fate of Ophelia" appears, well, fated to win Video of the Year. "The Fate of Ophelia" has racked up 524 million views on YouTube in 11 months. Bruno Mars' "[I Just Might](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mrV8kK5t0V8&list=RDmrV8kK5t0V8&start%5Fradio=1)," the next-most-watched nominated video, has 170 million views in eight months, while Ariana Grande's "[hate that i made you love me](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82-jTNka3uc&list=RD82-jTNka3uc&start%5Fradio=1)" has 92 million in three. None of the other nominated music videos has crossed 90 million. Swift's video has amassed 145 million more views than the other five videos combined. The varying release dates for each music video complicate the comparison, but Swift still leads after adjusting for time. "The Fate of Ophelia" has averaged roughly 47.6 million views for every month it has been on YouTube—more than twice the 21.3 million average views-per-month for "I Just Might," the next-highest rate. "The Fate of Ophelia" has a 65% implied probability of winning Video of the Year. "Patient Zero" may bring Swift back to the VMAs next year. For one night, it brings MTV back to an era when people tuned in just to watch a music video. ## ## ## ## --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: Josh Allen Is Daring Us to Overreact](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/josh-allen-is-daring-us-to-overreact/)  ### Josh Allen Is Daring Us to Overreact [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/josh-allen-is-daring-us-to-overreact/) [Open article: Prediction Markets Doubt Anthropic's November IPO](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/prediction-markets-doubt-anthropic-s-ipo-timing/)  ### Prediction Markets Doubt Anthropic's November IPO [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/prediction-markets-doubt-anthropic-s-ipo-timing/) [Open article: Trinidad Chambliss Won More Than a Revenge Game](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/from-division-backup-to-heisman-favorite/)  ### Trinidad Chambliss Won More Than a Revenge Game [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/from-division-backup-to-heisman-favorite/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/taylor-swift-brings-the-music-video-back-to-mtv/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/taylor-swift-brings-the-music-video-back-to-mtv/"},"headline":"Taylor Swift Brings the Music Video Back to MTV","datePublished":"2026-09-24T21:27:48.743Z","dateModified":"2026-09-24T21:27:31.707Z","description":"Ahead of the 2026 VMAs, Taylor Swift is giving MTV a music-video premiere—and prediction markets are betting she may have another surprise in store.","url":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/taylor-swift-brings-the-music-video-back-to-mtv/","keywords":[],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt7e9f87b5cfbbdf69/6ab4570c3d43c779176de86d/GettyImages-2171438586.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Annie Nader","jobTitle":"Prediction Markets Analyst","url":"https://time.com/author/annie-nader/"}],"articleSection":"Prediction Markets","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt7e9f87b5cfbbdf69/6ab4570c3d43c779176de86d/GettyImages-2171438586.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"GettyImages-2171438586.jpg","caption":"","creditText":"Kevin Mazur—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/taylor-swift-brings-the-music-video-back-to-mtv/","name":"Taylor Swift Brings the Music Video Back to MTV"}}]}] ```