--- title: You Can See Everything Oscar Odds: Best Picture, Nathan Fielder, and Amanda Seyfried description: You Can See Everything could make Oscar history in Best Picture as Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim challenge Christopher Nolan for Best Director and Amanda Seyfried emerges as a Best Supporting Actress contender. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/surprise-actress-joins-oscars-buzz-for-you-can-see-everything/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-10-28T22:54:40.377Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-28T22:54:40.603Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: You Can See Everything Oscar Odds: Best Picture, Nathan Fielder, and Amanda Seyfried og:description: You Can See Everything could make Oscar history in Best Picture as Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim challenge Christopher Nolan for Best Director and Amanda Seyfried emerges as a Best Supporting Actress contender. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/surprise-actress-joins-oscars-buzz-for-you-can-see-everything/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt00d67234bfc5c3d7/6ae22ce8c44d5d19520c9efa/GettyImages-2302273157.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2302273157.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: You Can See Everything Oscar Odds: Best Picture, Nathan Fielder, and Amanda Seyfried twitter:description: You Can See Everything could make Oscar history in Best Picture as Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim challenge Christopher Nolan for Best Director and Amanda Seyfried emerges as a Best Supporting Actress contender. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt00d67234bfc5c3d7/6ae22ce8c44d5d19520c9efa/GettyImages-2302273157.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # Surprise Actress Joins Oscar Race for "You Can See Everything" > Sponsored content. 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They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-sub-2026q3/newsletters?i=ce9ab315-7abf-44fc-9d15-75e39235f947&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) * TIME Subscriptions: [time.com/subscribe-agent](/c/time-sub-2026q3/subscribe?i=ce9ab315-7abf-44fc-9d15-75e39235f947&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Oct 28, 2026 10:54 PM UTC  Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim attend the "You Can See Everything" Q&A during the 29th SCAD Savannah Film Festival in Savannah, Georgia on October 27, 2026. Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim attend the "You Can See Everything" Q&A during the 29th SCAD Savannah Film Festival in Savannah, Georgia on October 27, 2026. Jason Kempin—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Oct 28, 2026 10:54 PM UTC Last November, Academy executive Michael Benedict [told Variety](https://variety.com/2025/film/awards/can-a-documentary-be-nominated-for-best-picture-1236586255/) he was "embarrassed" a documentary had never been nominated for Best Picture, adding that it was his mission to "hopefully make this happen one day." Almost no one outside the seven-member _You Can See Everything_ crew knew it at the time, but while the Academy was fishing for a documentary that could land a Best Picture nomination, Nathan Fielder and Elizabeth Holmes had gone swimming, Fielder's frigophobia be damned. _You Can See Everything_ follows Nathan Fielder as he and co-director Lance Oppenheim document Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes and her partner, Billy Evans, in the final weeks before Holmes reports to prison. The film premiered at a [secret screening](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/07/movies/elizabeth-holmes-documentary-nathan-fielder-a24.html) in Telluride on September 6 and released wide on October 23 with the kind of hype that normally attracts detractors. It still managed to exceed expectations: [80%](https://variety.com/2026/film/box-office/you-can-see-everything-box-office-how-a24-made-hit-movie-1236930697/) of moviegoers said the film was "even better than expected," and [90%](https://variety.com/2026/film/box-office/you-can-see-everything-box-office-how-a24-made-hit-movie-1236930697/) said they would "definitely recommend the film," according to [exit polls](https://variety.com/2026/film/box-office/you-can-see-everything-box-office-how-a24-made-hit-movie-1236930697/). The film crossed [$50 million](https://x.com/DiscussingFilm/status/2115478357714628990?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet) at the domestic box office on Tuesday, becoming just the third non-music documentary to reach that milestone, joining _Fahrenheit 9/11_ and _March of the Penguins_. For another milestone best kept out of sight from the subject who waived his cut: _You Can See Everything_ is now the [highest-grossing documentary](https://variety.com/2026/film/box-office/you-can-see-everything-box-office-how-a24-made-hit-movie-1236930697/) in the past 15 years. Prediction-market traders now expect _You Can See Everything_ to become the first documentary ever nominated for Best Picture. They also have Christopher Nolan asking why Fielder and Oppenheim took over his [eggs](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/23/style/elizabeth-holmes-billy-evans-eggs.html), while the movie's well-kept casting secret is making another surprise appearance—in the Best Supporting Actress race. ## Oscars Odds: _You Can See Everything_ Below are the [Oscars odds for Best Director](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxoscardir/oscar-for-best-director/kxoscardir-27), per Kalshi.  Two months ago, there was no contract listed for the movie traders did not know existed. Now _You Can See Everything_ has an [82% chance of being nominated for Best Picture](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxoscarnompic/oscar-nominations-for-best-picture/kxoscarnompic-27) and a 22% chance of winning it, lagging only [_The Odyssey_ at 53%](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxoscarpic/oscar-for-best-picture/kxoscarpic-27). Some of the biggest movement has taken place in the Best Director market, where Christopher Nolan is no longer priced as a near-sure thing. Nolan had a 77% chance of winning Best Director for _The Odyssey_ before Fielder and Oppenheim delivered a three-hour epic of their own. Nolan's implied probability has since fallen to 59% as traders give Fielder and Oppenheim a 29% chance of winning Best Director. Holmes' understudy is winning over the market, too. [Amanda Seyfried](https://time.com/collections/100-most-influential-people-2022/6177793/amanda-seyfried/) makes a surprise appearance about halfway through _You Can See Everything_. Attempting to parse what went down in his 34 days with Holmes and Evans, Fielder enlists the actress who knows the real Holmes emerges whenever she [drinks her coffee](https://x.com/Dejisco29/status/2115149518966776001). In a moment meta even by Fielder's standards, Seyfried watches footage of Holmes watching footage of Seyfried portraying Holmes in the 2022 Hulu miniseries _The Dropout_. And that might have been the least surreal moment of Seyfried's screen time, as she goes on to press Evans on a matter of subjects before reprising her role as Holmes in reenactments of moments that took place off camera, including Fielder's visit to Holmes in prison. Seyfried playing Seyfried is equal parts voice of reason, instigator, and audience surrogate. Seyfried playing Holmes might just earn her an Oscar.  [Seyfried will be eligible for the Oscars](https://variety.com/2026/film/awards/you-can-see-everything-oscars-eligibility-awards-1236916699/) for her portrayal of Holmes, and a [source](https://variety.com/2026/film/awards/you-can-see-everything-oscars-eligibility-awards-1236916699/) told Variety that A24's awards campaign push in the acting categories will "[center](https://variety.com/2026/film/awards/you-can-see-everything-oscars-eligibility-awards-1236916699/)" on her. Fitting for this documentary, her awards season path will not follow the script. The Actor Awards, formerly known as the SAG Awards, do not recognize documentaries, making Seyfried ineligible for the precursor award that has correlated with 16 of the past 17 Best Supporting Actress Oscar winners. Still, traders give Seyfried a 32% chance of winning Best Supporting Actress, the second-favorite to Anne Hathaway at 54% for _The Odyssey_. The Academy wanted a documentary to get a foot in the Best Picture door. Fielder and Co. are trying the handles on Best Director and Best Supporting Actress, too. [Door city over here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZLVjCMStQw). ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: Trading Tops $1 Billion on the Sports Equinox](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/sports-trading-volume-tops-billion-on-the-sports-equinox/)  ### Trading Tops $1 Billion on the Sports Equinox [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/sports-trading-volume-tops-billion-on-the-sports-equinox/) [Open article: Which NFL Teams Are Actually Contenders?](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/which-nfl-teams-are-real-contenders/)  ### Which NFL Teams Are Actually Contenders? 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