--- title: Spider-Man: Brand New Day Box Office Projections and Odds description: Prediction markets think Spider-Man: Brand New Day could deliver the second-biggest domestic opening weekend in movie history. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/spider-man-brand-new-day-eyes-2026-s-biggest-debut/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-07-29T22:58:48.962Z article:modified_time: 2026-07-29T22:58:40.880Z og:title: Spider-Man: Brand New Day Box Office Projections and Odds og:description: Prediction markets think Spider-Man: Brand New Day could deliver the second-biggest domestic opening weekend in movie history. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/spider-man-brand-new-day-eyes-2026-s-biggest-debut/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blta321b8fec03f889f/6a6972c9a3f6e669c118b615/GettyImages-2281667669.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 675 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2281667669.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Spider-Man: Brand New Day Box Office Projections and Odds twitter:description: Prediction markets think Spider-Man: Brand New Day could deliver the second-biggest domestic opening weekend in movie history. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blta321b8fec03f889f/6a6972c9a3f6e669c118b615/GettyImages-2281667669.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # Spider-Man: Brand New Day Eyes 2026's Biggest Debut by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Jul 29, 2026 10:58 PM UTC  Tom Holland and Zendaya pose at the photocall for the film 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' in the Courtyard of the Four Seasons Hotel in Madrid, Spain on June 15, 2026. Tom Holland and Zendaya pose at the photocall for the film 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' in the Courtyard of the Four Seasons Hotel in Madrid, Spain on June 15, 2026.Raul Terrel—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Jul 29, 2026 10:58 PM UTC Every few years, a web-slinger swings back into theaters and reminds Hollywood who owns the skyline. His next adventure could prove the industry's ceiling is simply his ledge to climb. In 2002, _Spider-Man_ became the [first movie to gross more than $100 million in its opening weekend](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/article/ed1651770372/?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com). The franchise's 10 films have since earned a combined $8.98 billion worldwide, placing it fourth among the [highest-grossing film franchises](https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/movies/articles/10-most-successful-movie-franchises-134701215.html) behind only the Marvel Cinematic Universe, _Star Wars_, and _Harry Potter_. The latest installment could vault the franchise past the $10 billion mark—and signal that, nearly a quarter-century in, _Spider-Man_ still hasn't reached its commercial peak. _Spider-Man: Brand New Day_ opens worldwide on July 31\. The audience arrived early: the first trailer pulled in a [record 718.6 million views](https://deadline.com/2026/03/spider-man-brand-new-day-trailer-record-viewership-1236760618/) in 24 hours, nearly double the previous benchmark set by _Deadpool & Wolverine—_enough to overtake _Grand Theft Auto VI_ as the [biggest 24-hour video launch in media history](https://deadline.com/2026/03/spider-man-brand-new-day-trailer-record-viewership-1236760618/). The webheads have yet to trade clicks for tickets, but a record-smashing trailer turnout made for a convincing dress rehearsal. Box-office tracking points to the biggest debut of 2026\. Prediction markets think that's underselling it. And for the two stars of the film, opening weekend could mean losing the top spot at the box office—to themselves. ## Spider-Man: Brand New Day Box Office Forecast  Traditional tracking agrees on the floor: _Brand New Day_ is headed for the biggest opening weekend of 2026\. [_Deadline_ reported](https://deadline.com/2026/07/spider-man-brand-new-day-box-office-projection-1237005824/) a projected $195 million domestic opening and a $465 million global debut. [Boxoffice Pro](https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-spider-man-brand-new-day-set-to-swing-to-biggest-opening-of-2026/)'s forecast placed the film between $230 and $250 million domestically, while [Box Office Theory](https://boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office-tracking-forecasts-spider-man-brand-new-day-week-before-release) projected $249 million. The range is wide, but even at the most conservative estimate, _Brand New Day_ would comfortably clear _Toy Story 5_'s $159.6 million debut. Box-office tracking has the film winning the summer. Prediction-market traders are pricing in a much larger distinction. [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/spider-man-brand-new-day-opening-weekend-box-office-20260618144048824) currently gives the film an 86% chance of opening above $280 million domestically. If traders are right, it would become only the [10th film](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchise/fr3662122757/) to cross $200 million on opening weekend—and leap straight to second on the all-time list, ahead of _Spider-Man: No Way Home_'s $260 million debut and behind only _Avengers: Endgame_'s $357 million record. The market may be borrowing confidence. [_The Odyssey_ surpassed box-office expectations](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-odyssey-sails-toward-box-office-history/), debuting to $123.5 million at home despite [_Deadline_](https://deadline.com/2026/07/box-office-the-odyssey-forecast-1236982438/) projecting an $85 million-to-$100 million opening. That may have made traders more willing to bet that tracking is running low across the board. The stronger explanation may be on the marquee. _Brand New Day_ reunites _The Odyssey_ co-stars—and real-life spouses—Tom Holland and Zendaya, two of Hollywood's most marketable actors. According to exit polls, [70% of audience members](https://www.indiewire.com/news/box-office/the-drama-zendaya-indie-box-office-queen-1235187553/#:~:text=In%20fact%2C%20%E2%80%9CThe%20Drama%E2%80%9D,it%20starred%20Zendaya%20and%20Pattinson.) said they went to see _The Drama_ because it starred Zendaya and Robert Pattinson. Zendaya has the largest [Instagram](https://www.instagram.com/zendaya/) following among actresses without a residency on the Billboard charts. _The Odyssey_'s marketing team understood the value of her reach: despite appearing onscreen for fewer than five minutes, she was [promoted](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xlJP1v2j34I) like a lead and made the poster over actors with [larger roles](https://screenrant.com/the-odyssey-movie-actors-ranked-screen-time/). Zendaya's 2026 slate reads like a "one for me, three for you" turn: _The Drama_, followed by _The Odyssey_, _Brand New Day_, and _Dune: Part Three_—a Samuel L. Jackson-level box-office run. Holland is moving from one summer blockbuster to the next, while _Stranger Things_ breakout star Sadie Sink brings another built-in audience. On top of the superhero IP, traders may be pricing a film capable of collapsing several fandoms into one opening-weekend crowd—at the point in the summer when the most comfortable room in America may be an air-conditioned movie theater. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: Kawhi Leonard Trade on Hold, Raptors Still Favored](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/kawhi-leonard-s-raptors-reunion-could-outlive-clippers-trade/)  ### Kawhi Leonard Trade on Hold, Raptors Still Favored [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/kawhi-leonard-s-raptors-reunion-could-outlive-clippers-trade/) [Open article: Minnesota Climbs From 6% to WNBA Championship Favorite](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/minnesota-lynx-flip-the-wnba-title-board/)  ### Minnesota Climbs From 6% to WNBA Championship Favorite [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/minnesota-lynx-flip-the-wnba-title-board/) [Open article: LeBron's 76ers Decision Stuns a $230 Million Market](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/lebron-james-signs-with-76ers-blindsiding-a-230-million-market/)  ### LeBron's 76ers Decision Stuns a $230 Million Market [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/lebron-james-signs-with-76ers-blindsiding-a-230-million-market/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/spider-man-brand-new-day-eyes-2026-s-biggest-debut/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/spider-man-brand-new-day-eyes-2026-s-biggest-debut/"},"headline":"Spider-Man: Brand New Day Eyes 2026's Biggest Debut","datePublished":"2026-07-29T22:58:48.962Z","dateModified":"2026-07-29T22:58:40.880Z","description":"Box-office tracking says Spider-Man: Brand New Day will deliver the year's biggest opening. Prediction markets think that undersells it—and the only movie standing in its way stars Tom Holland and Zendaya, too","url":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/spider-man-brand-new-day-eyes-2026-s-biggest-debut/","keywords":[],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blta321b8fec03f889f/6a6972c9a3f6e669c118b615/GettyImages-2281667669.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Annie Nader","jobTitle":"Prediction Markets Analyst","url":"https://time.com/author/annie-nader/"}],"articleSection":"","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blta321b8fec03f889f/6a6972c9a3f6e669c118b615/GettyImages-2281667669.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"GettyImages-2281667669.jpg","caption":"","creditText":"Raul Terrel—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/spider-man-brand-new-day-eyes-2026-s-biggest-debut/","name":"Spider-Man: Brand New Day Eyes 2026's Biggest Debut"}}]}] ```