--- title: 2026 Women's Wimbledon Odds: Aryna Sabalenka Leads, Serena Williams Returns description: Serena Williams returns to Wimbledon as a wild card, but the title odds still run through Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, Elena Rybakina and Mirra Andreeva in a volatile women's market. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/serena-williams-returns-to-wimbledon-as-the-ultimate-wild-card/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-06-29T15:26:42.307Z article:modified_time: 2026-06-29T15:25:56.911Z og:title: 2026 Women's Wimbledon Odds: Aryna Sabalenka Leads, Serena Williams Returns og:description: Serena Williams returns to Wimbledon as a wild card, but the title odds still run through Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, Elena Rybakina and Mirra Andreeva in a volatile women's market. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/serena-williams-returns-to-wimbledon-as-the-ultimate-wild-card/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blta58ca8c29f550e44/6a3ebc0f589a223df7c0b37d/GettyImages-2283095669.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 675 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2283095669.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: 2026 Women's Wimbledon Odds: Aryna Sabalenka Leads, Serena Williams Returns twitter:description: Serena Williams returns to Wimbledon as a wild card, but the title odds still run through Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, Elena Rybakina and Mirra Andreeva in a volatile women's market. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blta58ca8c29f550e44/6a3ebc0f589a223df7c0b37d/GettyImages-2283095669.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # Serena Williams Returns to Wimbledon as the Ultimate Wild Card by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Jun 29, 2026 3:26 PM UTC  Serena Williams of the United States hits a backhand during a practice session next to Centre Court during previews prior to The Championships Wimbledon 2026 at All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club in London, England on June 24, 2026. Serena Williams of the United States hits a backhand during a practice session next to Centre Court during previews prior to The Championships Wimbledon 2026 at All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club in London, England on June 24, 2026.Glyn Kirk— Getty Image by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Jun 29, 2026 3:26 PM UTC Twenty-four years ago, [Serena Williams](https://time.com/collections/100-most-influential-people-2025/7273813/serena-williams/) walked onto Centre Court chasing her first Wimbledon title. Waiting across the net: the No. 1 seed, a two-time defending champion who had won 20 straight matches at the All England Club—her older sister, Venus. Serena dispatched Venus in straight sets, sparking a reign that would deliver an Open Era-record 23 Grand Slam titles. For the next decade and a half, Wimbledon's Venus Rosewater Dish was family property: together, the Williams sisters won 12 Wimbledon women's singles titles across 17 tournaments. Now, nearly four years since her last Grand Slam singles match ended in the third round of the U.S. Open, [Williams returns to Wimbledon as a wild card entry](https://www.espn.com/tennis/story/%5F/id/49136493/serena-williams-play-wimbledon-singles-wild-card)—officially, and otherwise. At 44 and unseeded, Williams is not supposed to win Wimbledon, or even loom over its second week. But logic can't quantify her aura. Her mere entry has electrified interest around the tournament, driving so much action [on Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/predictions/wimbledon) that the women's Wimbledon market has eclipsed the men's by more than $4 million in trading volume. While traditional sportsbooks price Williams as a massive underdog, her odds on prediction markets are inflated for one simple reason: people want to see her win. Still, the [draw](https://www.wimbledon.com/en%5FGB/draws/ladies-singles/1) has given Williams' return a plausible reward: if she survives the opening rounds, defending Wimbledon champion [Iga Swiatek](https://time.com/collections/100-most-influential-people-2023/6269964/iga-swiatek/) could be waiting for her in the third, a first-ever meeting between the player who defined one era and the player trying to defend her place atop this one. According to DraftKings Sportsbooks, [Williams has +117 odds](https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/event/serena-williams-vs-maya-joint/34325749) to win her first-round matchup versus 20-year-old Maya Joint, which suggests a 46% win probability. ## Women's Wimbledon Odds Here's a look at the [2026 women's Wimbledon odds](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-womens-wimbledon-winner), per [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/).  The odds board starts where the rankings do, with Aryna Sabalenka leading at a 23% implied win probability. The world No. 1 paces Tennis Abstract's [grass-court Elo ratings](https://tennisabstract.com/reports/wta%5Felo%5Fratings.html), a meaningful edge at the only Grand Slam played on grass. She is the rightful favorite, but in the current state of the women's game, favorite is far from inevitable. Sabalenka entered the [French Open](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/women-s-tennis-tests-its-hierarchy-at-a-scorching-french-open/) with a 26% title chance but ultimately fell to Diana Shnaider in the quarterfinals despite an [88% pre-match price](https://www.si.com/betting/aryna-sabalenka-vs-diana-shnaider-prediction-odds-for-french-open-quarterfinals). The Roland Garros heat-induced carnage was not limited to her: Elena Rybakina went out in the second round, Coco Gauff in the third, and Swiatek in the fourth. Before the French Open began, those four commanded a combined [76% chance](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/women-s-tennis-tests-its-hierarchy-at-a-scorching-french-open/) to win on Kalshi, yet none of them advanced to the final weekend. And now, French Open champion Mirra Andreeva, born in 2007—when Serena Williams was already eight major wins deep—is the third-favorite to win her second-straight major. [Williams has +5500 odds to win Wimbledon](https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/tennis/women's-wimbledon-2026?tab=futures) on FanDuel Sportsbook, which implies just a 1.8% probability. Yet on Polymarket, she is being priced closer to 5%, and her contract has traded as high as 9.7 cents—a gap that says less about her statistical case and more about the market's appetite for the Serena scenario. Williams will probably not win Wimbledon. But in a women's game where six different players have won the last six majors—and coming off a French Open that refused to follow the script—belief has not been priced out of the bracket. Two wins, and Williams vs. Swiatek becomes the match of the tournament. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: Bears Without Borders](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/bears-without-borders-is-chicago-s-team-moving-to-indiana/)  ### Bears Without Borders [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/bears-without-borders-is-chicago-s-team-moving-to-indiana/) [Open article: A Fake Report Sent Westbrook to Tel Aviv. He Retired the Next Day.](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/online-hoax-sent-russell-westbrook-to-tel-aviv-he-retired-the-next-day/)  ### A Fake Report Sent Westbrook to Tel Aviv. He Retired the Next Day. [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/online-hoax-sent-russell-westbrook-to-tel-aviv-he-retired-the-next-day/) [Open article: 2026 Is Now Favored to Become the Hottest Year on Record](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/2026-is-now-favored-to-become-the-hottest-year-on-record/)  ### 2026 Is Now Favored to Become the Hottest Year on Record [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/2026-is-now-favored-to-become-the-hottest-year-on-record/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/serena-williams-returns-to-wimbledon-as-the-ultimate-wild-card/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/serena-williams-returns-to-wimbledon-as-the-ultimate-wild-card/"},"headline":"Serena Williams Returns to Wimbledon as the Ultimate Wild Card","datePublished":"2026-06-29T15:26:42.307Z","dateModified":"2026-06-29T15:25:56.911Z","description":"Serena Williams is not supposed to contend at Wimbledon. 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