--- title: 2026 AL Cy Young Odds: Cam Schlittler vs. Dylan Cease description: Cam Schlittler leads Dylan Cease in the 2026 AL Cy Young odds, but nearly identical numbers and very different closing schedules leave the award wide open. Here are the stats and schedules that could decide it. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/schlittler-and-cease-go-pitch-for-pitch/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-08-10T22:18:24.469Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-10T22:18:20.482Z og:title: 2026 AL Cy Young Odds: Cam Schlittler vs. Dylan Cease og:description: Cam Schlittler leads Dylan Cease in the 2026 AL Cy Young odds, but nearly identical numbers and very different closing schedules leave the award wide open. Here are the stats and schedules that could decide it. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/schlittler-and-cease-go-pitch-for-pitch/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blte54d087e632de712/6a794e13453dba7ff0af3b55/GettyImages-2287219976.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 675 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2287219976.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: 2026 AL Cy Young Odds: Cam Schlittler vs. Dylan Cease twitter:description: Cam Schlittler leads Dylan Cease in the 2026 AL Cy Young odds, but nearly identical numbers and very different closing schedules leave the award wide open. Here are the stats and schedules that could decide it. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blte54d087e632de712/6a794e13453dba7ff0af3b55/GettyImages-2287219976.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # Schlittler and Cease Go Pitch for Pitch by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Aug 10, 2026 10:18 PM UTC  Cam Schlittler #31 of the New York Yankees pitches during the game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on July 24, 2026. Cam Schlittler #31 of the New York Yankees pitches during the game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on July 24, 2026.Rich Graessle—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Aug 10, 2026 10:18 PM UTC The New York Yankees lost. Cam Schlittler's Cy Young campaign won. By the time he walked off the mound Sunday afternoon, his chances of winning the award had surged by more than 12 percentage points. The American League Cy Young race is unfolding inning by inning, with each turn through the lineup enough to swing the betting favorite before the final out. It's a welcome dose of late-summer suspense, if only because Jacob Misiorowski has left the National League with none. Misiorowski is authoring one of the most [dominant seasons](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7471496/2026/07/26/milwaukee-brewers-jacob-misiorowski-historic-start/) on record. On Sunday, he became the second-fastest pitcher [to reach 200 strikeouts,](https://www.mlb.com/news/jacob-misiorowski-notches-200th-strikeout-of-season-vs-twins) doing so in 129 1/3 innings. His 0.736 WHIP doesn't just lead the majors; if maintained, it would edge [Pedro Martinez's 0.737 record](https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/whip%5Fseason.shtml) from 2000, the lowest single-season WHIP mark by a qualified pitcher in MLB history. The [Brewers ace has an 85% implied probability of winning the NL Cy Young Award](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmlbnlcy/pro-baseball-national-league-cy-young/kxmlbnlcy-26), reducing that race to little more than a formality. But across the league divide, the American League arms race has become a one-run game between Schlittler and Dylan Cease, setting up a finish that could rank among the closest in Cy Young history. ## American League Cy Young Odds Here's a look at the [2026 AL Cy Young odds](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmlbalcy/pro-baseball-american-league-cy-young/kxmlbalcy-26), per Kalshi.  On Sunday, the market did what the Yankees' offense couldn't: reward Schlittler. His seven-inning, 11-strikeout clinic sent his Cy Young probability from 39% to 51%, erasing the damage from a rough August 3 outing versus the St. Louis Cardinals. Schlittler is now back in front of Cease, 51% to 46%. Put their seasons side by side, though, and the difference is measured in replay frames. [](https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/baseball/versus-finder.fcgi?request=1&seasons%5Ftype=forall&year%5Fmin=2026&year%5Fmax=2026&player%5Fid1=schlit001cam&player%5Fid2=cease-000dyl) Cam Schlittler vs. Dylan Cease Stats Comparison, per Stathead (as of August 10). One-tenth of a win in WAR. A 0.07 gap in ERA. Two strikeouts. It's a statistical bang-bang play. A finish this close would buck a recent trend: five of the past eight Cy Young winners were [unanimous selections](https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards%5F2025.shtml), and all eight collected at least 94% of the maximum available voting points. With so little separating Schlittler and Cease, the race now hinges on which numbers voters value most—and which hurler has the more favorable path through the final six weeks of the season. Baseball has never had more sophisticated ways to measure pitching—expected ERA, skill-interactive ERA, expected fielding independent pitching. Yet the Cy Young race has recently obeyed an old-school unwritten rule: lead the league in ERA. Eleven of the past 12 Cy Young winners also won their league's [ERA title](https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/earned%5Frun%5Favg%5Fleagues.shtml). Right now, Schlittler holds the ERA lead by a sliver. But Cease owns a five-percentage-point edge in strikeout rate, the clearest sign that his season has been the more overpowering of the two. Put pencils down today, and the stronger case may belong to Cease. But this Cy Young market doesn't just measure what a pitcher has done—it prices in what they have left to survive. Cease's closing stretch is loaded with dangerous lineups. Six of his final nine [projected starts](https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/schedule/%5F/name/tor/toronto-blue-jays) will come against teams ranked in the top 12 of [weighted runs created plus](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2026&month=0&season1=2026&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=1&age=&filter=&players=0&sortcol=17&sortdir=default) (wRC+), a metric that measures a team's total offensive value. Schlittler is due to face just two such offenses over his final eight starts. In a fitting twist, Cease projects to face the Yankees twice down the stretch, giving the lineup that went quiet for Schlittler on Sunday a chance to provide some deferred run support. Tomorrow, the race goes live again. Cease will take the bump, and by the time he walks off, the race could be his to lose—or all but lost. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: The Strangest Questions Traders Are Pricing](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/prediction-markets-have-reached-the-costco-food-court/)  ### The Strangest Questions Traders Are Pricing [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/prediction-markets-have-reached-the-costco-food-court/) [Open article: Stephen Curry Trade Rumors Fuel $4 Million Market](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-the-internet-traded-stephen-curry-to-the-celtics/)  ### Stephen Curry Trade Rumors Fuel $4 Million Market [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-the-internet-traded-stephen-curry-to-the-celtics/) [Open article: Super Bowl Odds Entering the NFL Season](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/super-bowl-odds-rams-separate-from-the-field/)  ### Super Bowl Odds Entering the NFL Season [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/super-bowl-odds-rams-separate-from-the-field/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/schlittler-and-cease-go-pitch-for-pitch/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/schlittler-and-cease-go-pitch-for-pitch/"},"headline":"Schlittler and Cease Go Pitch for Pitch","datePublished":"2026-08-10T22:18:24.469Z","dateModified":"2026-08-10T22:18:20.482Z","description":"Schlittler owns the ERA edge. 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