--- title: 2026 U.S. Open Women's Odds: Sabalenka Leads Wide-Open Field description: Aryna Sabalenka enters the 2026 U.S. Open as the favorite to three-peat, but a tough draw, recent form, and rising threats from Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek have kept the women's field wide open. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/sabalenka-is-chasing-a-three-peat-the-draw-is-keeping-score/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-08-28T20:56:36.199Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-28T20:56:31.285Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: 2026 U.S. Open Women's Odds: Sabalenka Leads Wide-Open Field og:description: Aryna Sabalenka enters the 2026 U.S. Open as the favorite to three-peat, but a tough draw, recent form, and rising threats from Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek have kept the women's field wide open. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/sabalenka-is-chasing-a-three-peat-the-draw-is-keeping-score/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt11c629807fbc15d0/6a907daa93ff8515bdce3bc9/GettyImages-2234055273.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2234055273.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: 2026 U.S. Open Women's Odds: Sabalenka Leads Wide-Open Field twitter:description: Aryna Sabalenka enters the 2026 U.S. Open as the favorite to three-peat, but a tough draw, recent form, and rising threats from Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek have kept the women's field wide open. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt11c629807fbc15d0/6a907daa93ff8515bdce3bc9/GettyImages-2234055273.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # Sabalenka Is Chasing a Three-Peat. The Draw Is Keeping Score. by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Aug 28, 2026 8:56 PM UTC  Aryna Sabalenka reacts against Amanda Anisimova of the United States during their Women's Singles Final match on Day Fourteen of the 2025 US Open at USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York City on September 6, 2025. Aryna Sabalenka reacts against Amanda Anisimova of the United States during their Women's Singles Final match on Day Fourteen of the 2025 US Open at USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York City on September 6, 2025.Sarah Stier—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Aug 28, 2026 8:56 PM UTC Form says fade. Queens says think twice. [Aryna Sabalenka](https://time.com/article/2026/08/13/aryna-sabalenka-interview/) has reached just one semifinal across her past seven tournaments—and arrives at the U.S. Open as the two-time defending champion and world No. 1\. Flushing Meadows has two signature serves. One comes with three [honeydew melon balls](https://www.esquire.com/food-drink/drinks/a73521980/best-grey-goose-cocktail-honey-deuce-us-open-tennis/). The other belongs to Sabalenka. Three straight finals. A 30-3 record since 2021\. And now, a chance to become the first player to three-peat at the U.S. Open since Serena Williams did so in 2014\. Sabalenka has spent [97 consecutive weeks as the world No. 1](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4566428/breaking-down-the-no-1-ranking-how-rybakina-gauff-and-pegula-can-overtake-sabalenka?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com), but she has not won a major this season—and her side of the draw is haunted by the players who made sure of it. So how is the market pricing a champion who has stopped winning majors, especially when an injured No. 2 seed has softened the other side of the bracket for [Coco Gauff](https://time.com/collections/time100-leadership-series/6970223/coco-gauff-interview-2024/) and [Iga Swiatek](https://time.com/collections/100-most-influential-people-2023/6269964/iga-swiatek/)? ## U.S. Open Women's Odds Here are the [2026 U.S. Open women's singles tournament odds](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-womens-us-open-winner-tennis), per Polymarket.  Sabalenka is a 23% implied favorite to win the U.S. Open, a price that reflects both her grip on this tournament and the reasons to loosen it. No one has been more inevitable at Flushing Meadows, but recent form and a loaded draw leave traders unwilling to price a three-peat as anything close to a sure thing. > [](https://twitter.com/usopen/status/2093010759529668877?s=42) The [draw](https://www.usopen.org/en%5FUS/draws/womens-singles.html) wastes little time testing that price. Sabalenka could face two-time singles major champion Barbora Krejcikova in the third round. From there, the ghosts gather: Diana Shnaider ended Sabalenka's run at this year's French Open and Jessica Pegula sent her home from Berlin, while reigning Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova could be waiting in the quarterfinals. Survive all that, and she may meet Elena Rybakina, who denied Sabalenka the Australian Open title, in the final. But Sabalenka's path is less a uniquely brutal draw than a reflection of the WTA's depth. Seven straight majors have produced seven different champions. And the closest thing to a lucky break sits on the other side of the bracket, where Rybakina's injury concerns could keep the No. 2 seed out of the tournament altogether. [Rybakina exited last week's Cincinnati Open with a left ankle injury](https://www.espn.com/tennis/story/%5F/id/49675327/rybakina-retires-cincinnati-open-quarterfinals-injury) and later [withdrew](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/elena-rybakina-abandons-taylor-fritz-181935708.html) from the U.S. Open mixed doubles event. Her implied title probability has since dropped from 10.2% to 5.0%. That could soften the road for Swiatek, who is projected to face Rybakina in the quarterfinals. The market thinks so: Swiatek's implied title probability has climbed from 11% to 15% in the past 10 days. From [clapping for Venus Williams in the stands as a kid](https://x.com/BastienFachan/status/2093098265436672030?s=42) to lifting the trophy herself in 2023, Gauff has been a fixture at the U.S. Open. She has the second-highest title probability at 16% and comes off a win at the Cincinnati Open—the same [U.S. Open springboard](https://www.espn.com/tennis/player/results/%5F/id/3626/year/2023) she used three years ago—where she defeated fellow American Jessica Pegula in the final. The No. 3 and No. 4 seeds landed in opposite halves of the draw, setting up the possibility of just the second all-American U.S. Open final since the [Serena-Venus showdown in 2002](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsCt47r73CI). Neither the [men's](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-us-open-is-back-on-the-market/) nor women's draw has anyone priced above 25%. Queens may say think twice about doubting Sabalenka. The market says think twice about everyone. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: The U.S. Open Is Back on the Market](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-us-open-is-back-on-the-market/)  ### The U.S. Open Is Back on the Market [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-us-open-is-back-on-the-market/) [Open article: Who Will Headline Coachella 2027?](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/coachella-top-billing-bottom-line/)  ### Who Will Headline Coachella 2027? [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/coachella-top-billing-bottom-line/) [Open article: The Heisman's Favorite Problem](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-heisman-s-favorite-problem/)  ### The Heisman's Favorite Problem [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-heisman-s-favorite-problem/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/sabalenka-is-chasing-a-three-peat-the-draw-is-keeping-score/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/sabalenka-is-chasing-a-three-peat-the-draw-is-keeping-score/"},"headline":"Sabalenka Is Chasing a Three-Peat. 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