--- title: U.S. Open Final Odds: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina description: Aryna Sabalenka faces Elena Rybakina in the 2026 U.S. Open women's final. See the latest odds, matchup history, and what's at stake. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/rybakina-has-no-1-sabalenka-wants-no-3/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-09-11T22:51:16.334Z article:modified_time: 2026-09-11T22:51:11.992Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: U.S. Open Final Odds: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina og:description: Aryna Sabalenka faces Elena Rybakina in the 2026 U.S. Open women's final. See the latest odds, matchup history, and what's at stake. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/rybakina-has-no-1-sabalenka-wants-no-3/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltc98e3606d703670b/6aa438a86df2ab287e8195f0/GettyImages-2268218163.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2268218163.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: U.S. Open Final Odds: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina twitter:description: Aryna Sabalenka faces Elena Rybakina in the 2026 U.S. Open women's final. See the latest odds, matchup history, and what's at stake. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltc98e3606d703670b/6aa438a86df2ab287e8195f0/GettyImages-2268218163.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # Rybakina Has No. 1\. Sabalenka Wants No. 3. > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Subscription: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition TIME is a general-interest news organization founded in 1923, reporting on the people, ideas and issues shaping the world. A TIME subscription provides full access to that journalism in print and digital, from $20 a year, and can be cancelled at any time. 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They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Sep 11, 2026 10:51 PM UTC  Aryna Sabalenka meets at the net after her win against Elena Rybakina of Kazakhstan during their quarterfinal match on Day 10 of the Miami Open at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, on March 26, 2026. Aryna Sabalenka meets at the net after her win against Elena Rybakina of Kazakhstan during their quarterfinal match on Day 10 of the Miami Open at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, on March 26, 2026. Mauricio Paiz—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Sep 11, 2026 10:51 PM UTC There was nothing Aryna Sabalenka could do but watch. She was hitting on a neighboring practice court on Wednesday when a roar from Arthur Ashe Stadium summoned her [to a television](https://www.tiktok.com/@espnw/video/7683630806136409357?embed%5Fsource=121374463%2C121468991%2C121439635%2C121749182%2C121433650%2C121404359%2C121497414%2C122349556%2C122221973%2C122122240%2C121351166%2C121811500%2C121960941%2C122122244%2C122122243%2C122122242%2C121487028%2C121679410%2C122258714%2C121331973%2C120811592%2C120810756%2C121885509%3Bnull%3Bembed%5Fmasking&refer=embed&referer%5Furl=iframely.publishing.yahoo.net%2F8FnHF6Qs%3Fapp%3D1%26v%3D1&referer%5Fvideo%5Fid=7683630806136409357). Elena Rybakina had advanced to the U.S. Open semifinal, a win that secured her the world No. 1 ranking—and left Sabalenka one week short of becoming the sixth woman in tennis history to spend 100 consecutive weeks on top. Sabalenka sarcastically quipped that [she didn't care](https://tennishead.net/aryna-sabalenka-speaks-about-losing-her-number-one-ranking-to-elena-rybakina-for-the-first-time/) about losing the ranking. She has another streak to protect—one she can defend on the court. Rybakina can snap that one, too. Sabalenka enters her fourth straight U.S. Open final on a 20-match winning streak in Flushing Meadows. She now has a chance to become the third woman in the Open Era and first since Serena Williams in 2014 to win three consecutive U.S. Open titles. Sabalenka approaches New York's toughest reservation with all the confidence of a regular, but Grand Slam silverware has yet to reach her table this year after doing so in each of the past three seasons. Saturday is her final chance to make it four. Her challenger has played spoiler before. Rybakina was behind Sabalenka's only Grand Slam-final loss this season. She was behind the end of Sabalenka's 99-week reign as No. 1\. And now the odds say a player who arrived as a [5% long shot](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/sabalenka-is-chasing-a-three-peat-the-draw-is-keeping-score/) is the two-time defending champion's toughest U.S. Open final opponent since Coco Gauff beat her in 2023\. ## U.S. Open Women's Final Odds Below are the odds for the [2026 U.S. Open final between Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-womens-us-open-winner-tennis), per Polymarket.  Sabalenka entered this tournament as a [23% implied favorite](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/sabalenka-is-chasing-a-three-peat-the-draw-is-keeping-score/). She entered each of the past two U.S. Open finals as the clear [favorite,](https://www.covers.com/sportsoddshistory/tennis-main/?y=2024&sa=tennis&a=us&x=w) with a 78.9% probability against Jessica Pegula in 2024 and a 65.5% probability against Amanda Anisimova in 2025\. She's listed as just a 56% implied favorite against Rybakina, who has seen her title odds climb from 5% to 43% since the start of the tournament. Rybakina's pre-tournament pricing was not a straight-up oversight. The No. 2 seed retired from the Cincinnati Open with an [ankle injury](https://www.espn.com/tennis/story/%5F/id/49675327/rybakina-retires-cincinnati-open-quarterfinals-injury) one week before the U.S. Open. Traders heard "ankle injury" before a two-week hard-court marathon and reacted accordingly. The market flinched. Rybakina did not, winning four of her six matches in straight sets and taking down Coco Gauff, the second-favorite behind Sabalenka, in the semifinal. The U.S. Open gets the final matchup the rankings promised: Sabalenka and Rybakina are first and second, respectively, on [Tennis Abstract](https://tennisabstract.com/reports/wta%5Felo%5Fratings.html)'s hard-court Elo ratings. Sabalenka leads the [career head-to-head](https://www.wtatennis.com/head-to-head/320760/324166) 10-7, including 7-5 on hard courts, and is 33-3 overall on hard courts this season. One of those three losses came at the hands of Rybakina with a Grand Slam title on the line in the Australian Open final. Sabalenka holds a 36-3 record at the U.S. Open since 2021\. She has no match. But Saturday offers the closest thing. [Tennis Abstract's projections](https://www.tennisabstract.com/current/2026USOpenWomenForecast.html) are nearly point-for-point with the market, giving Sabalenka a 57.5% chance and Rybakina a 42.5% chance. Regardless of the result, Rybakina will officially become the world No. 1 on Monday. Saturday will decide whether she was right to call it "[just a number](https://www.bbc.com/sport/tennis/articles/c70l7qgw87do)." --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: The Emmy Awards Promise (Some) Suspense](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-emmy-awards-promise-some-suspense/)  ### The Emmy Awards Promise (Some) Suspense [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-emmy-awards-promise-some-suspense/) [Open article: The U.S. Open Wakes Up to Ben Shelton](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-us-open-wakes-up-to-ben-shelton/)  ### The U.S. Open Wakes Up to Ben Shelton [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-us-open-wakes-up-to-ben-shelton/) [Open article: NFL Season Opens With a Super Bowl Rematch](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nfl-season-starts-where-it-ended/)  ### NFL Season Opens With a Super Bowl Rematch [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nfl-season-starts-where-it-ended/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/rybakina-has-no-1-sabalenka-wants-no-3/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/rybakina-has-no-1-sabalenka-wants-no-3/"},"headline":"Rybakina Has No. 1. 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