--- description: USA vs. Belgium World Cup odds are a near pick 'em after FIFA lifted Folarin Balogun's ban. Here's what the markets see in tonight's Round of 16 clash. title: USA vs. Belgium Odds: U.S. Gets Balogun Back Before Heated World Cup Showdown image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt2b4382107c90ff5f/6a45f5564ec51fdaa0c6e13f/GettyImages-2284269367.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # Red Card Reversal Turns USA-Belgium Into World Cup Grudge Match by [Annie Nader](/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Jul 6, 2026 4:00 PM CUT  Folarin Balogun #20 of United States celebrates scoring with teammate Sergino Dest #2 during the first half against Bosnia and Herzegovina during a FIFA World Cup 2026 Round Of 32 match at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium in Santa Clara, California on July 1, 2026. Folarin Balogun #20 of United States celebrates scoring with teammate Sergino Dest #2 during the first half against Bosnia and Herzegovina during a FIFA World Cup 2026 Round Of 32 match at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium in Santa Clara, California on July 1, 2026.Lyndsay Radnedge—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Jul 6, 2026 4:00 PM CUT A win-or-go-home match for a spot in the World Cup quarterfinals sells itself. But after a red card and a lifted suspension turned one controversy into another, tonight's United States vs. Belgium showdown has become more than a knockout game: a full-blown grudge match. Wednesday's round-of-32 match between the United States and Bosnia-Herzegovina first swung on [Folarin Balogun](https://time.com/article/2026/06/25/folarin-balogun-world-cup-birthright-citizenship/ "undefined")'s left boot, then on the referee's whistle. Balogun pounced on a deflected pass from Malik Tillman, nutmegged the goalkeeper, and [hit the LeBron James celebration](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxF9oatXqU0 "undefined")—before a [questionable red card](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MuaS3jUAark "undefined") sent him off in the 64th minute, instantly dropping the U.S.'s win probability on Kalshi from 93% to 78%. Despite playing nearly 40 minutes with 10 men, the Americans won their first knockout-round match since 2002\. But the card was still on the table: the red automatically triggered a [one-match suspension](https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/%5F/id/49243703/usa-folarin-balogun-red-card-bosnia-herzegovina-world-cup-2026 "undefined"), leaving Balogun set to miss Belgium. Then on Sunday, justice—or home cooking, depending on your scarf—arrived: [FIFA suspended](https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026/articles/usa-folarin-balogun-available-belgium "undefined") the implementation of Balogun's one-match ban under Article 27 of its [disciplinary code](https://digitalhub.fifa.com/m/6094262690de769/original/FIFA-Disciplinary-Code-2025.pdf "undefined"), which allows the judicial body to "suspend the implementation of a disciplinary measure." The reversal came days after [FIFA indicated](https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/%5F/id/49248052/usmnt-cannot-appeal-folarin-balogun-red-card-face-extended-world-cup-ban-sources "undefined") the United States had no route to appeal the red card. President Trump—noted [FIFA Peace Prize](https://inside.fifa.com/campaigns/football-unites-the-world/news/president-trump-peace-prize-football-unites-the-world "undefined") winner—[reportedly called FIFA president](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/05/us/trump-fifa-balogun-world-cup.html "undefined") Gianni Infantino to review the matter, later thanking the organization in a Truth Social post. The decision has set off a frenzied debate. Many fans and analysts saw Balogun's contact as unintentional, not worthy of a red, and possibly the product of a [VAR review](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/var-accused-breaking-protocol-folarin-154025416.html "undefined") that stretched protocol. FIFA had not softened the punishment for a World Cup red card [since 1962](https://www.foxsports.com/stories/soccer/before-balogun-meet-only-other-player-have-world-cup-red-card-rescinded "undefined"), bending more than six decades of precedent. Maybe two wrongs make a right. Belgium doesn't think so. The [Royal Belgian Football Association said](https://www.rbfa.be/en/news/rbfa-statement-regarding-folarin-balogun "undefined") it was "astonished" by the decision and "investigating all potential options," citing Articles 10.5 and 66.4 of the disciplinary code. Belgium coach [Rudi Garcia compared](https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/%5F/id/49279471/belgium-usa-folarin-balogun-ban-suspended-fifa-world-cup-2026 "undefined") the ruling to a late April Fools' joke. Suddenly, the U.S. wasn't just getting its striker and top goalscorer back. It was giving Belgium a grievance before the opening whistle. On Polymarket, [Balogun's availability](https://polymarket.com/event/world-cup-folarin-balogun-to-play-vspt-belgium-20260702164610264/world-cup-folarin-balogun-to-play-vspt-belgium-20260702164610264 "undefined") for Monday's match became its own live drama, swinging from a near-zero to a near-certain probability once FIFA lifted the ban. Now, the board is trying to answer the bigger question: after a chaotic week, a restored U.S. attack, and an aggrieved Belgium side, how do the odds see tonight's match playing out? ## World Cup Odds: USA vs. Belgium Here's a look at the [USA vs. Belgium World Cup odds](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxwcadvance/world-cup-advance/kxwcadvance-26jul06usabel "undefined"), per Kalshi.  Kalshi had the U.S. vs. Belgium billed as a true pick 'em before the suspension was lifted. Once Balogun was cleared to play, money moved towards the Americans, nudging them to a 52% implied probability to advance. That slight edge fits the matchup. The U.S. and Belgium have been nearly even in [pace](https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026/statistics/team-statistics "undefined") (6.17 km/h and 6.21 km/h) and average [time of possession](https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026/statistics/team-statistics "undefined") (51% and 52%) this tournament. Belgium entered the World Cup as FIFA's No. 9 team compared to the United States at No. 16, though the Stars and Stripes have punched above their weight. In the three matches where Mauricio Pochettino played his usual starters—the U.S. had already secured the top spot in Group D heading into the match against Turkey—the Americans have outscored their opponents 8-1, with the disciplined attack registering the tournament's fourth-best [attempts at goal conversion rate](https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026/statistics/team-statistics "undefined") (19%). Belgium's attack, by contrast, has been less surgical than relentless. The Red Devils lead the World Cup with [92 attempts](https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026/statistics/team-statistics "undefined") at goal—40 more than the U.S., despite trailing them in total goals. That sheer volume discrepancy means the U.S. might have little room for waste. Belgium will have the ball and the chances; the U.S. has to keep converting its chances at a clip few teams can sustain, perhaps this time with some help from [Christian Pulisic](https://time.com/article/2026/05/07/christian-pulisic-world-cup-2026-interview/ "undefined"), who has yet to lead the charge for his side but has [+115 odds to score or assis](https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/soccer/fifa-world-cup/usa-v-belgium-35780854 "undefined")t tonight. The close odds and high total—the market gives the U.S. and Belgium a [58% chance](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxwcadvance/world-cup-advance/kxwcadvance-26jul06usabel "undefined") to clear 2.5 goals, the highest price at that line for any match currently listed—suggest fans are in for a barnburner. And history only adds to that charge. The first World Cup match either country ever played came against the other in 1930, when the U.S. beat Belgium 3-0 in Uruguay. Eighty-four years later, Belgium returned the favor in a round-of-16 match, ending the Americans' run despite [Tim Howard's record-setting 16 saves](https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/articles/tim-howard-usa-record-most-saves-game "undefined"). Belgium may have this week's grudge, but the U.S. has a 12-year one. If the Americans win tonight, it will turn one of the strangest weeks in U.S. soccer history into one of its greatest. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: Minnesota Climbs From 6% to WNBA Championship Favorite](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/minnesota-lynx-flip-the-wnba-title-board/)  ### Minnesota Climbs From 6% to WNBA Championship Favorite [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/minnesota-lynx-flip-the-wnba-title-board/) [Open article: LeBron's 76ers Decision Stuns a $230 Million Market](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/lebron-james-signs-with-76ers-blindsiding-a-230-million-market/)  ### LeBron's 76ers Decision Stuns a $230 Million Market [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/lebron-james-signs-with-76ers-blindsiding-a-230-million-market/) [Open article: The Red Sox Are MLB's Biggest Market Mover](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-15-straight-wins-repriced-the-red-sox/)  ### The Red Sox Are MLB's Biggest Market Mover [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-15-straight-wins-repriced-the-red-sox/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/red-card-reversal-turns-usa-belgium-into-world-cup-grudge-match/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/red-card-reversal-turns-usa-belgium-into-world-cup-grudge-match/"},"headline":"Red Card Reversal Turns USA-Belgium Into World Cup Grudge Match","datePublished":"2026-07-06T16:00:14.341Z","dateModified":"2026-07-06T15:59:20.886Z","description":"A red card, a lifted suspension, and a fresh Belgian grievance have turned USA-Belgium into one of the World Cup's most charged matchups—and the odds still see a near coin flip.","url":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/red-card-reversal-turns-usa-belgium-into-world-cup-grudge-match/","keywords":[],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt2b4382107c90ff5f/6a45f5564ec51fdaa0c6e13f/GettyImages-2284269367.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Annie Nader","jobTitle":"Prediction Markets Analyst","url":"https://time.com/author/annie-nader/"}],"articleSection":"","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt2b4382107c90ff5f/6a45f5564ec51fdaa0c6e13f/GettyImages-2284269367.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"GettyImages-2284269367.jpg","caption":"","creditText":"Lyndsay Radnedge—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/red-card-reversal-turns-usa-belgium-into-world-cup-grudge-match/","name":"Red Card Reversal Turns USA-Belgium Into World Cup Grudge Match"}}]}] ```