--- title: The Weirdest Prediction Markets of 2026 description: From Cristiano Ronaldo's tears to corporate buzzwords and Costco's $1.50 hot dog, these are the strangest prediction markets of 2026. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/prediction-markets-have-reached-the-costco-food-court/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-08-07T23:15:33.554Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-07T23:15:19.757Z og:title: The Weirdest Prediction Markets of 2026 og:description: From Cristiano Ronaldo's tears to corporate buzzwords and Costco's $1.50 hot dog, these are the strangest prediction markets of 2026. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/prediction-markets-have-reached-the-costco-food-court/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltbe970931b77913ca/6a762a96d6cd0eda86851866/GettyImages-2260403010.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 675 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2260403010.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: The Weirdest Prediction Markets of 2026 twitter:description: From Cristiano Ronaldo's tears to corporate buzzwords and Costco's $1.50 hot dog, these are the strangest prediction markets of 2026. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltbe970931b77913ca/6a762a96d6cd0eda86851866/GettyImages-2260403010.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # Prediction Markets Have Reached the Costco Food Court by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Aug 7, 2026 11:15 PM UTC  In this photo illustration, a mobile device displays the Kalshi logo while a laptop displays the webpage of the prediction market platform in Copenhagen, Denmark, on February 10, 2026 In this photo illustration, a mobile device displays the Kalshi logo while a laptop displays the webpage of the prediction market platform in Copenhagen, Denmark, on February 10, 2026Kristian Tuxen, Ladegaard Berg—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Aug 7, 2026 11:15 PM UTC Earlier this week, we [unpacked](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-the-internet-traded-stephen-curry-to-the-celtics/) how a chance overlap at a golf course and a decontextualized Stephen Curry-to-Boston report helped fuel more than $4 million in prediction-market trading. A seven-figure market built on a tee-time coincidence may sound absurd. Then you open the rest of the board. Here are some of the strangest questions traders have put a price on this year. ## Mentions Economy Both [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/mentions) and [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/category/mentions) feature dedicated "Mentions" tabs, and they are exactly what they sound like: traders buy and sell contracts tied to whether a specific person or company publicly says, or even posts, a certain word or phrase. Right now, that [includes contracts](https://kalshi.com/category/mentions/trump) on whether President Trump calls someone a "whack job" before October, CAVA says "sweet potato" during its next earnings call, or an NFL announcer says "what a catch"—though a Cris Collinsworth "now here's a guy" contract remains unavailable. These markets attract surprising volume—or entirely unsurprising volume, depending on how aware you are of what now counts as tradable. Earlier this week, more than $1.8 million changed hands over what SpaceX would say during its earnings call on August 4\.  The markets can get more chaotic at settlement. Last fall, a Kalshi market on what Electronic Arts (EA) would say during its next earnings call drew [$9 million](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxearningsmentionea/ea-earnings-call/kxearningsmentionea-25oct28) in trading volume. Then [EA suspended its earnings call amid its pending take-private acquisition](https://variety.com/2025/gaming/news/electronic-arts-sales-down-earnings-private-1236563695/). Kalshi's fine print contained [market settlement rules](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxearningsmentionea/ea-earnings-call/kxearningsmentionea-25oct28): "If the earnings call does not occur by March 31, 2026 all strikes will resolve to no." Millions of dollars were traded on the vocabulary of a call that never happened. ## Cristiano Ronaldo's Tears  There is no exact metric for determining the most famous person on Earth, though you can't go wrong guessing either Pope Leo XIV or Cristiano Ronaldo. But if social media is the ultimate arbiter, Ronaldo has the edge—at least until the Vatican gets serious about its [Instagram](https://www.instagram.com/pontifex/?hl=en) strategy. [Ronaldo's 678 million Instagram followers](https://www.instagram.com/cristiano/) put him 163 million ahead of the next-most-followed person on the platform. Given that level of global fame, it's no surprise that granular markets have formed around Ronaldo, with traders taking positions on everything from his next team to his [wedding attendees](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-attend-cristiano-ronaldos-wedding-20260803185630253). Betting on waterworks was a new one. But the absurdity wasn't just the premise; it was the scale. The contract drew $89 million, making Ronaldo's tear ducts the [World Cup's second-largest market](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-the-world-cup-broke-prediction-market-records/) on Polymarket, trailing only the tournament winner. And yes, he [cried](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/SMrQtzn0q8U). ## Hot Dog Inflation Index  There are few constants left in American life. One of them costs $1.50 and comes with a soda. The [Costco](https://time.com/collection/time100-most-influential-companies/2026/costco-wholesale/) hot dog combo is less a menu item than a national promise. For more than 40 years, the price hasn't budged a single cent. Its cult status has inspired [hot-dog-combo T-shirts](https://www.teepublic.com/t-shirt/90601286-kirkland-signature-hot-dog-costco?countrycode=US&utm%5Fsource=google&utm%5Fmedium=shopping&utm%5Fcampaign=%5BG%5D+%5BG.NAM%5D+%5BL.ENG%5D+%5BGEN%5D+%5BC.TShirts%5D+%5BPLF%5D&utm%5Fid=notset&utm%5Fcontent=costco#321P90601286D1V) and a [viral birthday party](https://www.tiktok.com/@jasminebellepak/video/7272791838082338091) that helped turn Costco-themed celebrations into a [TikTok genre](https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/costco-themed-birthday-party-went-211008369.html). But now, traders are pricing its demise. Had the combo kept pace with inflation, it would [cost around $4.70 today](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=1.50&year1=198504&year2=202606). The market currently gives the combo a 35% chance of becoming more expensive before 2030—a bet against legendary corporate defiance. In 2022, then-CFO Richard Galanti said [Costco intended](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/26/costco-cfo-says-hot-dog-and-soda-combo-price-is-forever.html) to maintain the combo price "forever." In 2024, new CFO Gary Millerchip [confirmed](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/31/food/costco-hot-dog-price/index.html) that the price was "safe." The $1.50 hot dog combo might actually be immune to inflation. But prediction markets are immune to boredom. Long before Costco cracks, traders will have found stranger ways to price the future. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: Stephen Curry Trade Rumors Fuel $4 Million Market](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-the-internet-traded-stephen-curry-to-the-celtics/)  ### Stephen Curry Trade Rumors Fuel $4 Million Market [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-the-internet-traded-stephen-curry-to-the-celtics/) [Open article: Super Bowl Odds Entering the NFL Season](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/super-bowl-odds-rams-separate-from-the-field/)  ### Super Bowl Odds Entering the NFL Season [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/super-bowl-odds-rams-separate-from-the-field/) [Open article: MLB World Series Odds Following the Trade Deadline](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/mlb-world-series-odds-dodgers-surge-after-skubal-trade/)  ### MLB World Series Odds Following the Trade Deadline [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/mlb-world-series-odds-dodgers-surge-after-skubal-trade/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/prediction-markets-have-reached-the-costco-food-court/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/prediction-markets-have-reached-the-costco-food-court/"},"headline":"Prediction Markets Have Reached the Costco Food Court","datePublished":"2026-08-07T23:15:33.554Z","dateModified":"2026-08-07T23:15:19.757Z","description":"Traders are wagering millions on earnings-call buzzwords, Cristiano Ronaldo's tears, and the day Costco finally raises the price of its $1.50 hot dog combo.","url":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/prediction-markets-have-reached-the-costco-food-court/","keywords":[],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltbe970931b77913ca/6a762a96d6cd0eda86851866/GettyImages-2260403010.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Annie Nader","jobTitle":"Prediction Markets Analyst","url":"https://time.com/author/annie-nader/"}],"articleSection":"","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltbe970931b77913ca/6a762a96d6cd0eda86851866/GettyImages-2260403010.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"GettyImages-2260403010.jpg","caption":"","creditText":"Kristian Tuxen, Ladegaard Berg—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/prediction-markets-have-reached-the-costco-food-court/","name":"Prediction Markets Have Reached the Costco Food Court"}}]}] ```