--- title: Anthropic IPO Delay: Prediction Markets See More Uncertainty description: Anthropic has reportedly pushed its IPO plans from October to November. Prediction-market traders are pricing in the possibility of another delay as AI safety concerns grow. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/prediction-markets-doubt-anthropic-s-ipo-timing/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-09-22T21:59:21.027Z article:modified_time: 2026-09-22T21:59:16.089Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: Anthropic IPO Delay: Prediction Markets See More Uncertainty og:description: Anthropic has reportedly pushed its IPO plans from October to November. Prediction-market traders are pricing in the possibility of another delay as AI safety concerns grow. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/prediction-markets-doubt-anthropic-s-ipo-timing/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt13016fdd3984a3a5/6ab1aae2d5c34f3013bc33e2/GettyImages-2278736579.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2278736579.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Anthropic IPO Delay: Prediction Markets See More Uncertainty twitter:description: Anthropic has reportedly pushed its IPO plans from October to November. Prediction-market traders are pricing in the possibility of another delay as AI safety concerns grow. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt13016fdd3984a3a5/6ab1aae2d5c34f3013bc33e2/GettyImages-2278736579.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # Prediction Markets Doubt Anthropic's IPO Timing > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Subscription: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition TIME is a general-interest news organization founded in 1923, reporting on the people, ideas and issues shaping the world. A TIME subscription provides full access to that journalism in print and digital, from $20 a year, and can be cancelled at any time. 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They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Sep 22, 2026 9:59 PM UTC  Anthropic has confirmed that it has confidentially filed for an initial public offering (IPO). The Anthropic logo is displayed on a smartphone screen with a stock market chart in the background, in Creteil, France, on June 2, 2026. Anthropic has confirmed that it has confidentially filed for an initial public offering (IPO). The Anthropic logo is displayed on a smartphone screen with a stock market chart in the background, in Creteil, France, on June 2, 2026. Samuel Boivin—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Sep 22, 2026 9:59 PM UTC Private investors valued Anthropic at [$380 billion](https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-30-billion-series-g-funding-380-billion-post-money-valuation) in February. By May, that figure reached [$965 billion](https://www.anthropic.com/news/series-h). Now, the company behind Claude could [reportedly](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/anthropic-shifts-planned-ipo-to-november-8874dffc) raise up to $100 billion in an initial public offering (IPO) at a valuation of around $2 trillion. At that size, Anthropic's IPO would be the largest in history, surpassing [SpaceX's record-setting IPO](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/11/technology/spacex-ipo-price.html) in June, which raised $75 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation. But as Anthropic prepares to sell investors on a future its own leaders warn is arriving too fast, its path to Wall Street is slowing down. The company has reportedly pushed its IPO plans to November, and prediction-market traders are pricing in the possibility of another delay. On June 1, [Anthropic announced](https://www.anthropic.com/news/confidential-draft-s1-sec) that it had confidentially filed for an IPO with the SEC. [Investors](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/anthropic-shifts-planned-ipo-to-november-8874dffc) initially expected the company to debut on the Nasdaq in October. But on Friday, the [Wall Street Journal reported](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/anthropic-shifts-planned-ipo-to-november-8874dffc) Anthropic was shifting its IPO staging to November, noting that some advisers believe the new timeline "would give the startup time to share third-quarter financials that show a strong competitive position." The delay comes one week after Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published an essay titled "[We Must Pace the Frontier,](https://darioamodei.com/post/we-must-pace-the-frontier)" calling for an industry-wide slowdown in AI capabilities. That essay came four days after [Jacob Coxon](https://time.com/article/2026/09/09/ai-anthropic-openai-jacob-coxon/), a former AI researcher, announced his resignation from Anthropic and warned that neither Anthropic nor OpenAI was "acting responsibly" in a viral [X post](https://x.com/hilbertspaess/status/2097476196791709843). Both cautioned that AI was moving too fast. But the sharper shift in the Anthropic IPO prediction-market odds followed the warning from the person with the power to slow it down. And now, what once looked like a race between Anthropic and OpenAI to the public markets may end with neither making its Wall Street debut in 2026\. ## When Will Anthropic Go Public? Below are the [odds for when Anthropic will officially confirm an IPO](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxipoanthropic/anthropic-ipo/kxipoanthropic-date), per Kalshi. An IPO is considered "confirmed" if the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective, the IPO is priced, or a ticker is assigned to the company, according to market rules.  On September 8, Anthropic's implied probabilities of confirming an IPO before November, December, and January, respectively, were listed at 73%, 92%, and 96%. That same day, [Jacob Coxon announced he was resigning from Anthropic in an X thread](https://x.com/hilbertspaess/status/2097476196791709843): "I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives." Coxon's former OpenAI and Anthropic colleagues [echoed his concerns](https://time.com/article/2026/09/15/ai-anthropic-researcher-quits-coxon-slowdown/). The X post received more than 173 million views. But in the days that followed, Anthropic's probability of going public before November remained at 70% or above, while the later-dated contracts remained heavily favored. The market moved sharply after Amodei's essay. The first bolded sentence of the [essay](https://darioamodei.com/post/we-must-pace-the-frontier) states: "We must slow the pace at which we improve the capabilities of AI models." His call to slow AI development might have given traders a reason to consider whether Anthropic would take its own advice—delaying model releases or even its IPO. In 24 hours, Anthropic's implied probability of confirming an IPO before November fell from 70% to 50%, December from 84% to 71%, and January from 92% to 81%. Last month, Kalshi's market gave Anthropic a 97% chance of confirming an IPO before the end of the year, while OpenAI's probability of going public by year-end was as high as 87% in May. Now, the year could end without either going public. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman confirmed last week that the company would not pursue an IPO this year, calling it an "[ill-advised](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ipo-delayed-sam-altman-says-150828134.html)" time due to safety concerns. In June, OpenAI advisers told executives the company would have to lower its targeted valuation or wait until 2027 to go public. Altman reportedly called lowering the valuation a "nonstarter," [according to The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/25/technology/openai-ipo-artificial-intelligence.html). Following Anthropic's reported IPO shift from October to November, traders did not simply shift their expectations by one month. The "before December 1" contract is trading at a 50% implied probability, which is lower than where the "before November 1" contract was trading (58%) following Amodei's essay but before the reported delay. Kalshi still gives Anthropic a [91% chance](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxoaianth/open-ai-vs-anthropic/kxoaianth-40) of confirming an IPO before OpenAI, but the probability of the Claude-maker going public before 2027 has fallen to 74%, while people familiar with the plans "[caution the timing could still change](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/anthropic-shifts-planned-ipo-to-november-8874dffc)." The frontier AI companies that built their valuations on acceleration are now asking for patience—just before public investors see what that speed cost. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: Trinidad Chambliss Won More Than a Revenge Game](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/from-division-backup-to-heisman-favorite/)  ### Trinidad Chambliss Won More Than a Revenge Game [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/from-division-backup-to-heisman-favorite/) [Open article: Bold NFL Week 2 Predictions That Aren't So Bold](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/bold-nfl-predictions-that-aren-t-so-bold/)  ### Bold NFL Week 2 Predictions That Aren't So Bold [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/bold-nfl-predictions-that-aren-t-so-bold/) [Open article: Lane Kiffin Left Ole Miss. Now He Has to Go Back.](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/lane-kiffin-returns-to-oxford/)  ### Lane Kiffin Left Ole Miss. Now He Has to Go Back. [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/lane-kiffin-returns-to-oxford/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/prediction-markets-doubt-anthropic-s-ipo-timing/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/prediction-markets-doubt-anthropic-s-ipo-timing/"},"headline":"Prediction Markets Doubt Anthropic's IPO Timing","datePublished":"2026-09-22T21:59:21.027Z","dateModified":"2026-09-22T21:59:16.089Z","description":"Anthropic could pursue the largest IPO in history. 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