--- title: 2027 Grammy Odds: Album of the Year, Song of the Year, and Best New Artist description: Will Taylor Swift, Olivia Rodrigo, Ella Langley, RAYE, and Harry Styles earn 2027 Grammy nominations? See the latest odds for Album of the Year, Song of the Year and Best New Artist. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/predicting-the-2027-grammy-nominations/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-10-15T22:52:46.673Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-15T22:52:42.041Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: 2027 Grammy Odds: Album of the Year, Song of the Year, and Best New Artist og:description: Will Taylor Swift, Olivia Rodrigo, Ella Langley, RAYE, and Harry Styles earn 2027 Grammy nominations? See the latest odds for Album of the Year, Song of the Year and Best New Artist. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/predicting-the-2027-grammy-nominations/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt8ff25f034da3efa8/6ad042317ea0e85fde8291fa/GettyImages-2259035396.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2259035396.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: 2027 Grammy Odds: Album of the Year, Song of the Year, and Best New Artist twitter:description: Will Taylor Swift, Olivia Rodrigo, Ella Langley, RAYE, and Harry Styles earn 2027 Grammy nominations? See the latest odds for Album of the Year, Song of the Year and Best New Artist. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt8ff25f034da3efa8/6ad042317ea0e85fde8291fa/GettyImages-2259035396.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # Predicting the 2027 Grammy Nominations > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Subscription: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition TIME is a general-interest news organization founded in 1923, reporting on the people, ideas and issues shaping the world. A TIME subscription provides full access to that journalism in print and digital, from $20 a year, and can be cancelled at any time. 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They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-sub-2026q3/newsletters?i=7f42481b-94e1-450a-9210-d786b52c7053&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) * TIME Subscriptions: [time.com/subscribe-agent](/c/time-sub-2026q3/subscribe?i=7f42481b-94e1-450a-9210-d786b52c7053&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Oct 15, 2026 10:52 PM UTC  Bad Bunny accepts the award for Album of the Year for "Debi Tirar Mas Fotos" on stage during the 68th Annual Grammy Awards at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles on February 1, 2026. Bad Bunny accepts the award for Album of the Year for "Debi Tirar Mas Fotos" on stage during the 68th Annual Grammy Awards at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles on February 1, 2026. Valier Macon—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Oct 15, 2026 10:52 PM UTC In 1959, the Recording Academy held a [naming contest](https://www.explorelouisiana.com/articles/how-grammy-got-its-name-louisiana) for its new awards show. "Grammy" won. The play on "gramophone" got an unofficial rebrand in the age of aggrieved social media stans: "Scammys." It was right there. The unfortunate, and now well-popularized, nickname might be the best thing that's ever happened to the Grammys. The 2025 Grammy Awards drew [102.2 million](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/grammy-awards-tv-ratings-feb-2-2025-1236126284/) online interactions—the most social media traffic ever for a television broadcast, including all Super Bowls, according to [CBS and analytics firm Talkwalker](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/grammy-awards-tv-ratings-feb-2-2025-1236126284/). But the broadcast received just [15.4 million viewers](https://variety.com/2025/tv/news/grammys-ratings-2025-viewers-1236295409/), down from 28.5 million in 2014\. Fewer people were watching the live ceremony. Everyone was tweeting about it. [Stan Twitter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stan%5FTwitter), a subculture dedicated to a particular celebrity or musician, has repeatedly made [#Scammys](https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/music/a35833462/bts-army-grammys-2021-scammys/) trend when their favorite artists lose at the Grammys. The declarations that the awards show is fraudulent work as publicity for the Recording Academy, which has even [responded to Ariana Grande fans](https://x.com/TheGrandeTop10/status/2045864799842558067?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2045864799842558067%7Ctwgr%5E2794331009f75c0d9c0a7189e8fff22b2e2d42e3%7Ctwcon%5Es1%5F&ref%5Furl=https%3A%2F%2Ftribune.com.pk%2Fstory%2F2603751%2Fgrammys-respond-after-ariana-grande-fans-call-out-repeated-snubs) complaining about snubs online. The Grammys even give casual viewers plenty to untangle on social media: the distinction between Song of the Year and Record of the Year, how an artist with six albums can qualify for Best New Artist, and why an album that was critically panned sometimes receives the night's biggest honor. Some of those questions can be cleared up by the Recording Academy's rulebook. Others require a closer look at what Grammy voters actually reward, and it isn't always what the category name suggests. With voting for the 69th Grammy Awards underway and nominations due out November 16, prediction markets are offering a preview of who might make the cut—from a blockbuster Taylor Swift album with mixed reviews to an artist getting a fourth chance at being labeled "new." ### Grammy Nominations: Album of the Year In 1996, Recording Academy president Mike Greene added a new step to the [Grammy voting process](https://ew.com/article/1996/02/16/1996-grammy-awards/): a 25-person nomination-review committee. Recording Academy members would cast their ballots, and the committee would narrow their top 20 selections to five nominees. In theory, an album that finished first in the initial vote could miss the cut, while one that finished 20th could earn a nomination. The goal was to mitigate the impact of "[popularity and sentimentality](https://ew.com/article/1996/02/16/1996-grammy-awards/)." The committee era delivered on its promise to recognize unconventional but deserving nominees, including an Album of the Year win for Gillian Welch and the Soggy Bottom Boys' _O Brother, Where Art Thou?_ soundtrack in 2002\. Ahead of the 2022 Grammys, the Recording Academy eliminated the nomination-review committee. The past four Album of the Year winners were about as mainstream as it gets: Harry Styles, Taylor Swift, Beyoncé, and Bad Bunny. Three of those artists' albums debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard 200\. That is not to say any one of those particular albums was undeserving of the night's biggest honor, but it does underline a recent trend in the non-committee era: commercial success trumps critical success. The [2027 Grammy nomination odds for Album of the Year](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgrammynomaoty/grammy-nominees-for-album-of-the-year/kxgrammynomaoty-69) on Kalshi reflect that.  Thirteen albums have at least a 25% chance of being nominated for Album of the Year. Ten rank among the 12 [biggest first-week U.S. debuts](https://ratingsgamemusic.com/2026/10/12/biggest-first-week-billboard-200-debuts-of-2026/), measured by sales and streaming, among albums submitted for consideration during this year's Grammy eligibility period. In other words, the most popular albums are, more or less, the favorites to be nominated for Album of the Year. Olivia Rodrigo's third album, _you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love_, leads the way with a 94% chance of receiving a nomination. [Rodrigo is also the favorite to win Album of the Year](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgramaoty/grammy-for-album-of-the-year/kxgramaoty-69) at 46%. Rodrigo's album was critically acclaimed with an [87 Metascore](https://www.metacritic.com/music/you-seem-pretty-sad-for-a-girl-so-in-love/olivia-rodrigo) based on 26 critic reviews. But not all the commercial hits have been critical ones. Taylor Swift's _The Life of a Showgirl_ received a 5.9 out of 10 on [Pitchfork](https://pitchfork.com/reviews/albums/taylor-swift-the-life-of-a-showgirl/), along with a 3.8 reader score. Swift has a 79% chance of being nominated this cycle and has won a record four Album of the Year awards, starting with her country album _Fearless_. The country genre hasn't had the same Grammy success since Swift went pop, but this year's biggest hit may change the Academy's tune in the Song of the Year category. ### Grammy Nominations: Song of the Year Below are the [2027 Grammy nomination odds for Song of the Year](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgrammynomsoty/grammy-nominees-for-song-of-the-year/kxgrammynomsoty-69), per Kalshi. ##  Record of the Year recognizes the artists, producers, mixers, and engineers who contribute to the recording of a song, while Song of the Year recognizes the songwriters. Artists can submit multiple songs in the same category, but doing so may risk a split vote among their supporters. For example, [Swift has reportedly submitted](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-sHayXk2p2A) "The Fate of Ophelia" for Record of the Year consideration and "I Knew It, I Knew You" for Song of the Year consideration. Just five country songs have won Song of the Year across 68 ceremonies, and none since Lady A's win for "Need You Now" in 2011\. The song that could end that drought is either the reason you turn the radio up or a reminder that you own one. Though some people claim to have [never](https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-country/ella-langley-choosin-texas-never-heard-the-song-meaning-1235631932/) even heard the song, Ella Langley's ["Choosin' Texas" spent a record 24 weeks at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100](https://www.billboard.com/lists/ella-langley-choosin-texas-hot-100-number-one-24th-week/), breaking Mariah Carey's 22-week record for "All I Want for Christmas Is You." "Choosin' Texas" has an 85% chance of being nominated for Song of the Year, trailing only RAYE's "WHERE IS MY HUSBAND!," Swift's "I Knew It, I Knew You," and Rodrigo's "the cure." Traders are even more confident that Langley will receive a nod in this next category. ### Grammy Nominations: Best New Artist Below are the [2027 Grammy nomination odds for Best New Artist](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgrammynomnaoty/grammy-nominees-for-new-artist-of-the-year/kxgrammynomnaoty-69), per Kalshi.  The Beatles were an active band from 1960 to 1970\. They won Best New Artist in 1965, the same year they released their sixth album, _Rubber Soul._ Sabrina Carpenter was six albums deep when she was up for the award in 2025\. "New" is not a requirement, or even much of a consideration, for Best New Artist. The award is, in essence, given to the artist we were aware of last year but are _really, really_ aware of this year. Best New Artist has gone to a solo female artist in nine straight years. Recent winners include Dua Lipa, Billie Eilish, Megan Thee Stallion, Olivia Rodrigo, Chappell Roan, and Olivia Dean. The streak could reach 10 with Langley, who would have been ineligible without a recent rule change. Artists could previously be submitted for Best New Artist consideration up to three times, which would have made Langley, who submitted for each of her past three albums, ineligible. The [Recording Academy amended the rules in June](https://www.grammy.com/news/2027-grammys-new-categories-rule-updates/), now allowing artists to be submitted for Best New Artist in up to four awards cycles. Langley has a 99% chance of being nominated and a 62% chance of winning Best New Artist. The market is confident the Recording Academy will choose Texas. Otherwise, expect the Grammys' irrelevance to become a trending topic. ## ## ## ## ## ## ## --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: Brock Purdy Is Beating the System](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/brock-purdy-is-beating-the-system/)  ### Brock Purdy Is Beating the System [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/brock-purdy-is-beating-the-system/) [Open article: The Dodgers Are Finally Underdogs. Sort Of.](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-dodgers-are-finally-underdogs/)  ### The Dodgers Are Finally Underdogs. Sort Of. [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-dodgers-are-finally-underdogs/) [Open article: What NBA MVP Voters Really Value](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nba-mvp-race-is-more-predictable-than-you-think/)  ### What NBA MVP Voters Really Value [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nba-mvp-race-is-more-predictable-than-you-think/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/predicting-the-2027-grammy-nominations/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/predicting-the-2027-grammy-nominations/"},"headline":"Predicting the 2027 Grammy Nominations","datePublished":"2026-10-15T22:52:46.673Z","dateModified":"2026-10-15T22:52:42.041Z","description":"Olivia Rodrigo, Taylor Swift and Ella Langley are among the favorites—but the odds tell a bigger story about what Grammy voters actually reward.","url":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/predicting-the-2027-grammy-nominations/","keywords":[],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt8ff25f034da3efa8/6ad042317ea0e85fde8291fa/GettyImages-2259035396.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Annie Nader","jobTitle":"Prediction Markets Analyst","url":"https://time.com/author/annie-nader/"}],"articleSection":"Prediction Markets","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt8ff25f034da3efa8/6ad042317ea0e85fde8291fa/GettyImages-2259035396.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"GettyImages-2259035396.jpg","caption":"","creditText":"Valier Macon—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/predicting-the-2027-grammy-nominations/","name":"Predicting the 2027 Grammy Nominations"}}]}] ```