--- title: 2026 NL MVP Odds: Shohei Ohtani vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong description: Pete Crow-Armstrong's NL MVP odds have surged from 1% to 43%, turning Shohei Ohtani's once-commanding lead into a real race. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/pete-crow-armstrong-crashes-the-nl-mvp-market/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-07-31T00:15:17.338Z article:modified_time: 2026-07-31T00:14:46.449Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: 2026 NL MVP Odds: Shohei Ohtani vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong og:description: Pete Crow-Armstrong's NL MVP odds have surged from 1% to 43%, turning Shohei Ohtani's once-commanding lead into a real race. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/pete-crow-armstrong-crashes-the-nl-mvp-market/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt6b5b68ae44bca49e/6a6a9d3d11de33af85901613/GettyImages-2286149919.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2286149919.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: 2026 NL MVP Odds: Shohei Ohtani vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong twitter:description: Pete Crow-Armstrong's NL MVP odds have surged from 1% to 43%, turning Shohei Ohtani's once-commanding lead into a real race. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt6b5b68ae44bca49e/6a6a9d3d11de33af85901613/GettyImages-2286149919.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # Pete Crow-Armstrong Crashes the NL MVP Market by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Jul 31, 2026 12:15 AM UTC  Pete Crow-Armstrong #4 of the Chicago Cubs look on during the seventh inning of the 2026 MLB All-Star Game at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on July 14, 2026. Pete Crow-Armstrong #4 of the Chicago Cubs look on during the seventh inning of the 2026 MLB All-Star Game at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on July 14, 2026.Matt Dirksen—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Jul 31, 2026 12:15 AM UTC This season, MLB adopted the Automated Ball-Strike Challenge System to settle baseball's oldest argument. But the sport had already found its automatic answer in human form: [Shohei Ohtani](https://time.com/collection/time100-sports/2026/shohei-ohtani/). In a 150-year-old league divided over unwritten rules, sabermetrics, and whether a bat flip warrants 95 miles per hour of retaliation, Ohtani's place atop the sport is the rare verdict baseball does not appeal. He has won four MVP awards, second all-time behind only Barry Bonds' seven. Across the NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB, no other player has won a [unanimous league MVP](https://www.mlb.com/news/players-who-won-unanimous-mvp-awards) more than once. Ohtani has swept the ballot four times. Two years ago, Ohtani demoted the exclusive [40-40 club](https://www.mlb.com/news/40-40-club-c265378902) to Triple-A and founded a new one: the 50-50 club. In the game that made him the first player to hit 50 home runs and record 50 stolen bases in a single season, he went 6-for-6 with three home runs and 10 RBIs. It was considered one of the [greatest single-game performances](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-jYfC4YYXIw&t=164s) in MLB history—until the following October, when that same player jacked three homers and punched out 10 batters to send the Los Angeles Dodgers to the World Series. From June 1 through July 20, Ohtani's implied probability of winning his fifth MVP never dipped below 80%, a remarkable grip on a futures market where one stint on the injured list could derail an entire candidacy. His implied probability peaked at 90.5% earlier this month. Then a struggling North Sider found his swing—and gave the market a reason to tap its helmet. ## 2026 NL MVP Odds Here's a look at the [2026 MLB NL MVP odds](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmlbnlmvp/pro-baseball-national-league-mvp/kxmlbnlmvp-26), per Kalshi.  Pete Crow-Armstrong entered June with less than a 1% implied probability of winning MVP. His stats heading into that month, through his first 240 plate appearances: .224 batting average, .362 slugging percentage, six home runs. His next 235: .349 batting average, .728 slugging percentage, and 18 home runs. Crow-Armstrong's implied MVP probability jumped from 1% to 43% in less than six weeks, including a 31-percentage-point rise over the past two weeks. The clearest measure of his torrid surge: [5.3 wins above replacement](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2026&month=0&season1=2026&ind=0&sortcol=21&sortdir=default&pagenum=1) (WAR) since May 30, nearly twice the next-best total of 2.7\. The Chicago Cubs outfielder, who [dents walls for web gems](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/cX%5FiHHpe8%5FA), has put one in Ohtani's lead—just as the Dodgers crossed "pitcher" off his job description. On July 19, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts announced Ohtani would not be returning to the pitching rotation as scheduled due to knee soreness, [telling reporters](https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/shohei-ohtani-dodgers-start-postponed-knee-injury/), "it's not going to be a day-to-day thing." Ohtani had posted a 1.79 ERA through 14 starts. He's remained in the Dodgers' lineup as a designated hitter, making his MVP case a one-way effort. He won the award in 2024 without taking the mound and repeated last season despite making only 14 starts. But this time, his offense has looked mortal enough to miss the mound. At the plate, the comparison is a statistical bang-bang play. Ohtani: .289 batting average, .537 slugging percentage, 23 home runs. Crow-Armstrong: .285 batting average, .541 slugging percentage, 24 home runs. The dead heat ends beyond the batter's box. One of the top fielders and baserunners in MLB, Crow-Armstrong leads the league in [defensive runs above average](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2026&month=0&season1=2026&ind=0&sortcol=20&sortdir=default&pagenum=1), while his 26 stolen bases are tied for fourth in the majors. That all-around value has lifted him to a league-best 6.5 [bWAR](https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB-leaders.shtml), just ahead of Ohtani's 6.0\. With Ohtani's pitching paused and the knee injury limiting his impact on the bases, he may have to erase the gap with his bat alone. Wins above replacement does not decide the MVP award, but recent history suggests it carries real weight. Nine of the last 10 NL MVP winners finished first or second among position players in bWAR. Team success offers no clean tiebreaker. Excluding the shortened 2020 season, the last 20 NL MVPs played for teams that averaged 92.8 wins. Only four NL clubs are currently [favored to win at least 90 games](https://kalshi.com/category/sports/baseball/pro-baseball/win-totals), including the Cubs and Dodgers. The market once treated Ohtani's fifth MVP as a formality. With Crow-Armstrong's climb from 1% to 43%, it's been forced to price in a legitimate alternative. Baseball's automatic answer remains the NL MVP favorite, but the market has stopped treating him as the only answer. For the first time in years, we have a ballgame. ## ## ## --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: The Market Still Buys the U.S. Open Sabalenka](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/sabalenka-is-chasing-a-three-peat-the-draw-is-keeping-score/)  ### The Market Still Buys the U.S. Open Sabalenka [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/sabalenka-is-chasing-a-three-peat-the-draw-is-keeping-score/) [Open article: The U.S. Open Is Back on the Market](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-us-open-is-back-on-the-market/)  ### The U.S. Open Is Back on the Market [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-us-open-is-back-on-the-market/) [Open article: Who Will Headline Coachella 2027?](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/coachella-top-billing-bottom-line/)  ### Who Will Headline Coachella 2027? [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/coachella-top-billing-bottom-line/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/pete-crow-armstrong-crashes-the-nl-mvp-market/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/pete-crow-armstrong-crashes-the-nl-mvp-market/"},"headline":"Pete Crow-Armstrong Crashes the NL MVP Market","datePublished":"2026-07-31T00:15:17.338Z","dateModified":"2026-07-31T00:14:46.449Z","description":"Once a struggling long shot, Crow-Armstrong has paired a scorching bat with elite defense and speed to challenge Ohtani's seemingly automatic path to a fifth MVP.","url":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/pete-crow-armstrong-crashes-the-nl-mvp-market/","keywords":[],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt6b5b68ae44bca49e/6a6a9d3d11de33af85901613/GettyImages-2286149919.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Annie Nader","jobTitle":"Prediction Markets Analyst","url":"https://time.com/author/annie-nader/"}],"articleSection":"Prediction Markets","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt6b5b68ae44bca49e/6a6a9d3d11de33af85901613/GettyImages-2286149919.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"GettyImages-2286149919.jpg","caption":"","creditText":"Matt Dirksen—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/pete-crow-armstrong-crashes-the-nl-mvp-market/","name":"Pete Crow-Armstrong Crashes the NL MVP Market"}}]}] ```