--- title: Oura IPO Postponed as Kalshi Traders Rethink 2026 Debuts description: Oura's IPO delay upended a 99% forecast. Kalshi odds for OpenAI, Discord, and Kraken have also plunged as traders rethink which IPOs will happen in 2026. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/oura-ipo-delay-gives-prediction-markets-a-wake-up-call/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-10-08T22:58:06.432Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-08T22:58:02.453Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: Oura IPO Postponed as Kalshi Traders Rethink 2026 Debuts og:description: Oura's IPO delay upended a 99% forecast. Kalshi odds for OpenAI, Discord, and Kraken have also plunged as traders rethink which IPOs will happen in 2026. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/oura-ipo-delay-gives-prediction-markets-a-wake-up-call/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt35b39a37e8c51b79/6ac7ceb756cd80acb668e320/GettyImages-2264029154.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2264029154.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Oura IPO Postponed as Kalshi Traders Rethink 2026 Debuts twitter:description: Oura's IPO delay upended a 99% forecast. Kalshi odds for OpenAI, Discord, and Kraken have also plunged as traders rethink which IPOs will happen in 2026. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt35b39a37e8c51b79/6ac7ceb756cd80acb668e320/GettyImages-2264029154.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # Oura's IPO Delay Gives Prediction Markets A Wake-Up Call > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME In the Loop: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition In the Loop is one of seven email newsletters published by TIME, the news organization founded in 1923. Essential insights into the unfolding AI revolution. 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It covers the reporting, scoops and conversations shaping AI and the decisions facing leaders. #### Where can I get reported AI news rather than commentary? In the Loop is TIME's AI newsletter, built on original reporting and access to the people building and governing AI. It publishes Tuesdays and Fridays and is free at time.com/newsletters. #### Who writes TIME's In the Loop? Harry Booth, a tech reporter at TIME, writes In the Loop. #### Is In the Loop free? Yes. In the Loop is free at time.com/newsletters. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-loop-2026q3/newsletters?i=c4565cf3-3af2-49e0-8712-fedb4519c3fb&cr=time-nl-loop-2026q3-v1) by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Oct 8, 2026 10:58 PM UTC  An Oura smart ring and charging case at MWC Barcelona 2026 in Barcelona, Spain, on Tuesday, March 3, 2026. An Oura smart ring and charging case at MWC Barcelona 2026 in Barcelona, Spain, on Tuesday, March 3, 2026. Angel Garcia—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Oct 8, 2026 10:58 PM UTC Boring people with your dreams is out. Boring people with your sleep stats is in. In the age of [sleepmaxxing](https://time.com/7269178/what-is-sleepmaxxing-sleep-doctors/), the weather has lost its monopoly on small talk. Sleep is now a competitive sport—and Oura is keeping score. Oura introduced its first ring in 2015\. The [Oura Ring](https://ouraring.com/), which tracks more than 50 health metrics and assigns users a daily sleep score out of 100, gained traction in 2020 when the Finnish company [partnered with the NBA](https://time.com/collections/best-inventions-2020/5911381/oura-ring/) during the "bubble" season. Research [suggested](https://time.com/6266843/oura-ring-detect-covid-19-before-symptoms/) the ring could detect early symptoms of COVID-19\. Now the performance-review jewelry is so obsessed over that it's [literally keeping people up at night](https://time.com/7311740/sleep-anxiety-orthosomnia/). During the first [nine months of fiscal 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2133022/000119312526396051/d119865ds1a.htm), which ended on June 30, Oura sold 3.1 million rings—the latest model starts at [$399](https://ouraring.com/store/rings/oura-ring-5/silver?g%5Facctid=404-975-2641&g%5Fadgroupid=&g%5Fadid=&g%5Fadtype=none&g%5Fcampaign=Google%5FAlwaysOn%5FPmax-B%5FEN%5FAll%5FUS%5FPUR&g%5Fcampaignid=20915188257&g%5Fkeyword=&g%5Fkeywordid=&g%5Fnetwork=x&utm%5Fcampaign=Google%5FAlwaysOn%5FPMAX%5FFF%5FAll%5FUS%5FPUR&utm%5Fcontent=&utm%5Fmedium=cpc&utm%5Fsource=google&utm%5Fterm=alwayson&gclsrc=aw.ds&gad%5Fsource=1&gad%5Fcampaignid=20915193264&gbraid=0AAAAAqpUsIkEzZPKFBPytk8ZnkGtINRss&gclid=CjwKCAjw%5FpzWBhAkEiwAwDCi1e19PfNWpgkO4n80F17JqerEW4kIrxj6GmQIT-sX2IAeeGUvS4z76xoC0qsQAvD%5FBwE)—and generated $60.8 million in net income and $1.2 billion in revenue. Wall Street was next. Oura [confidentially filed for an IPO](https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/oura-ring-maker-files-confidentially-go-public-us-2026-05-21/) on May 21 and [submitted](https://www.reuters.com/business/smart-ring-maker-oura-files-us-ipo-2026-09-03/) its public registration form with the SEC on September 3\. The company launched its [roadshow](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/oura-smart-ring-ipo-roadshow-172711368.html) on September 21 and announced a proposed price range of $40 to $44 per share, with a valuation of up to [$15.6 billion](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/oura-smart-ring-ipo-roadshow-172711368.html). Oura was [expected](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/dear-future-oura-stock-investors-151851944.html) to begin trading on the Nasdaq on September 30\. But the IPO never materialized, defying a prediction market that had given Oura a 99% chance of going public before October 1 and exposing a broader collapse in confidence surrounding some of Wall Street's most anticipated public debuts. ## Oura Postpones IPO Below are the [odds for when Oura will IPO](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxipooura/oura-ipo/kxipooura), per Kalshi. According to market rules, an IPO is considered "confirmed" if the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective, the IPO is priced, or a ticker is assigned to the company.  On September 28, Kalshi traders gave Oura a 99% chance of confirming its IPO before October 1\. The next day, hours before it was expected to set its final share price, [Oura postponed the offering](https://www.wsj.com/tech/oura-postpones-ipo-over-market-uncertainty-49d49791). The contract for October 1 moved from 99% to 0%. The contract for January 1, 2027, moved from 99% to 12%. One week after traders gave Oura a 99% chance of confirming its IPO within three days, they now give it an even lower chance of confirming one before 2028\. Oura, which expected to raise up to [$2.2 billion](https://www.axios.com/2026/09/29/oura-ipo-delayed-smart-ring) in the offering, said it was delaying its IPO despite strong demand, citing [market conditions](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/29/smart-ring-maker-oura-postpones-ipo-due-to-market-uncertainty.html). Oura reported 5 million paid members in its [prospectus](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2133022/000119312526396051/d119865ds1a.htm), but roughly [80%](https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/what-ouras-stalled-ipo-tells-us-about-one-hit-wonders-31921bf5) of its revenue comes from hardware sales. University of Florida professor [Jay Ritter](https://site.warrington.ufl.edu/ritter/ipo-data/) analyzed 13 single-product consumer companies that went public between 2005 and 2024, as reported by [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/what-ouras-stalled-ipo-tells-us-about-one-hit-wonders-31921bf5). Those companies saw their share prices fall an average of 32% five years after going public, even as the broader market rose 49%. Oura's single-product business model may have contributed to valuation hurdles. But the postponement came amid a broader slowdown in the IPO market, including [delayed public offering plans from Anthropic and OpenAI](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/prediction-markets-doubt-anthropic-s-ipo-timing/). Just 30 companies went public in the U.S. during the [third quarter of 2026,](https://www.renaissancecapital.com/review/3Q26USReview%5FPublic.pdf) down from 64 during the same period in 2025 and the lowest quarterly total in the past 10 quarters. Overwhelming favorites typically deliver. An analysis by [Kalshi View](https://kalshiview.com/markets/accuracy/) found that 92.4% of 118 sampled markets priced between 90% and 100% a week before closing ultimately resolved Yes. Some IPO markets have seen sharp reversals, though. Oura's probability of confirming an IPO this year has fallen from 99% to 12%, Discord from 95% to 32%, OpenAI from 90% to 2%, and Kraken from 89% to 11%. A 99 sleep score is worth bothering people about. But as some IPO traders have discovered, a 99% probability is no reason to rest easy. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: Why the Nobel Peace Prize Is Drawing Millions in Bets](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/nobel-peace-prize-betting-surges-after-last-years-suspected-breach/)  ### Why the Nobel Peace Prize Is Drawing Millions in Bets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/nobel-peace-prize-betting-surges-after-last-years-suspected-breach/) [Open article: Digger Bombed at the Box Office. Polymarket Saw It Coming.](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/digger-box-office-bomb/)  ### Digger Bombed at the Box Office. Polymarket Saw It Coming. [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/digger-box-office-bomb/) [Open article: How Four Weeks Reshaped the NFL Playoff Picture](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-four-weeks-reshaped-the-nfl-playoff-picture/)  ### How Four Weeks Reshaped the NFL Playoff Picture [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-four-weeks-reshaped-the-nfl-playoff-picture/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/oura-ipo-delay-gives-prediction-markets-a-wake-up-call/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/oura-ipo-delay-gives-prediction-markets-a-wake-up-call/"},"headline":"Oura's IPO Delay Gives Prediction Markets A Wake-Up Call","datePublished":"2026-10-08T22:58:06.432Z","dateModified":"2026-10-08T22:58:02.453Z","description":"Oura's last-minute postponement stunned prediction-market traders. But the smart-ring maker isn't alone. 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