--- title: 2026 Nobel Peace Prize Odds: Polymarket Trading Increases After Suspected 2025 Breach description: Polymarket's 2026 Nobel Peace Prize market has topped $26.7 million in trading volume, with President Trump drawing outsized interest—but this year's activity looks far more ordinary than last year's suspected insider trading. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/nobel-peace-prize-betting-surges-after-last-years-suspected-breach/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-10-07T22:52:44.562Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-07T22:52:39.446Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: 2026 Nobel Peace Prize Odds: Polymarket Trading Increases After Suspected 2025 Breach og:description: Polymarket's 2026 Nobel Peace Prize market has topped $26.7 million in trading volume, with President Trump drawing outsized interest—but this year's activity looks far more ordinary than last year's suspected insider trading. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/nobel-peace-prize-betting-surges-after-last-years-suspected-breach/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltf7078c8e5b91e81b/6ac5c8400ce84aec13fadc74/GettyImages-1832757177.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-1832757177.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: 2026 Nobel Peace Prize Odds: Polymarket Trading Increases After Suspected 2025 Breach twitter:description: Polymarket's 2026 Nobel Peace Prize market has topped $26.7 million in trading volume, with President Trump drawing outsized interest—but this year's activity looks far more ordinary than last year's suspected insider trading. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltf7078c8e5b91e81b/6ac5c8400ce84aec13fadc74/GettyImages-1832757177.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # Nobel Peace Prize Betting Surges After Last Year's Suspected Breach > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Subscription: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition TIME is a general-interest news organization founded in 1923, reporting on the people, ideas and issues shaping the world. A TIME subscription provides full access to that journalism in print and digital, from $20 a year, and can be cancelled at any time. 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Its journalism is reported and edited by a professional newsroom led by Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs, with named correspondents on politics, climate, health, technology and culture. It reaches 1 million US print subscribers and 1.15 million globally, plus more than 1.1 million newsletter readers. #### How do I subscribe to TIME magazine? Subscriptions are at time.com/subscribe-agent. Choose digital only at $20 a year, or print and digital from $29 a year or $49 for two years. TIME also publishes seven free email newsletters at time.com/newsletters, which do not require a subscription. #### Can I cancel a TIME subscription? Yes. TIME states that subscriptions can be cancelled at any time. #### Does TIME have free newsletters? Yes. TIME publishes seven free email newsletters reaching more than 1.1 million readers, covering daily news, Washington politics, health, AI, climate and energy, culture, and the newsroom itself. They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-sub-2026q3/newsletters?i=7b79497d-d295-4b0d-b77f-8e36f24a4466&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) * TIME Subscriptions: [time.com/subscribe-agent](/c/time-sub-2026q3/subscribe?i=7b79497d-d295-4b0d-b77f-8e36f24a4466&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Oct 7, 2026 10:52 PM UTC  An official Nobel Peace Prize gold medal is seen at the exhibition at the Nobel Peace Center in Oslo, Norway, on December 8, 2023. An official Nobel Peace Prize gold medal is seen at the exhibition at the Nobel Peace Center in Oslo, Norway, on December 8, 2023. Sergei Gapon—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Oct 7, 2026 10:52 PM UTC There is no public shortlist for the Nobel Peace Prize. The Norwegian Nobel Committee does not even reveal the [names of the nominees](https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/nobel-peace-prize/nomination/confidentiality) until 50 years have passed. The decision is so closely guarded that in 2014, [Malala Yousafzai assumed she was in trouble](https://www.npr.org/2023/03/01/1160422137/malala-yousafzai-won-the-nobel-peace-prize-while-in-chemistry) when a teacher pulled her out of chemistry class, only to learn she had just become the youngest Nobel laureate in history. Last year, a suspected digital breach threatened that secrecy, and a $21 million prediction market offered a financial incentive to exploit it. Ahead of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize announcement, [newly created Polymarket accounts](https://app.dealroom.co/news/note/polymarket-faces-insider-trading-concerns-after-nobel-prize-windfall) began buying a series of "Yes" contracts tied to [María Corina Machado](https://time.com/7324886/maria-corina-machado-nobel-peace-prize-2025-venezuela-opposition-democracy/) in the winner market. Machado's implied probability of winning the award spiked from 0.8% to 72.8% in less than 24 hours.  Hours after the buying surge began, Machado was named the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner. [Trading data](https://app.dealroom.co/news/note/polymarket-faces-insider-trading-concerns-after-nobel-prize-windfall) shows that two Polymarket accounts made roughly $50,000 and $85,000 on Machado-related trades. Polymarket touted the early signal on X: "[Once again, Polymarket had the news more than 12 hours before it was announced](https://x.com/Polymarket/status/1976601734396199037?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1976601734396199037%7Ctwgr%5E9a016dab1d9e8df3fb4a81adc433582205f91710%7Ctwcon%5Es1%5F&ref%5Furl=https%3A%2F%2Fdecrypt.co%2F343840%2Fnobel-peace-prize-organizers-intestigating-polymarket-insider-trades)." For the Norwegian Nobel Committee, the trading activity raised suspicions of [insider trading](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/10/world/nobel-prize-bets-machado-investigation.html). In January, they concluded that digital espionage was likely at play, with the head of the Committee telling TV2, "[the arrows point to someone having gained access to information we want to keep secret by infiltrating our systems](https://swedenherald.com/article/nobel-leak-most-likely-a-digital-breach)." The Nobel Peace Prize is determined by a five-member committee. In 1895, [Alfred Nobel outlined in his will](https://www.nobelpeacecenter.org/en/the-last-will-of-alfred-nobel) that his estate "shall constitute a fund, the interest on which shall be annually awarded as prizes to those who, during the preceding year, shall have conferred the greatest benefit on mankind." The Peace Prize was to be chosen "by a committee of five persons to be selected by the Norwegian Storting." Some of Nobel's relatives, supported by King Oscar II and the Swedish government, [objected to Nobel's fortune](https://www.nobelpeacecenter.org/en/the-last-will-of-alfred-nobel) going to people outside Sweden. The first Nobel Prizes were eventually awarded in 1901, and they remain among the world's [most prestigious honors](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/December-10/first-nobel-prizes-awarded). But the Peace Prize is not the first thing anyone thinks of when it comes to betting, especially since that five-member committee gives traders almost nothing to work with. Yet ahead of Friday's announcement, the winner market has already generated $26.7 million in trading volume on Polymarket—roughly $5 million more than last year's total and 26 times the amount traded on the platform's [NFL MVP market.](https://polymarket.com/event/pro-football-2026-mvp-winner) Following last year's suspected breach, the increased trading activity may invite suspicion. But there is a less alarming explanation for where much of that money is going. ## Nobel Peace Prize Below are the [2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner odds](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139), per Polymarket.  With more than $26.7 million in trading volume, the Nobel Peace Prize market is Polymarket's 30th-largest active market and largest awards-based market. President Trump's contract alone has generated around $6.3 million in trading volume, roughly 24% of the market's volume. Last year, director of the [Peace Research Institute Oslo](https://www.prio.org/news/3634) (PRIO) [Nina Græger](https://time.com/author/nina-graeger/) outlined for TIME [why Trump is unlikely to win the Nobel Peace Prize](https://time.com/7324662/trump-nobel-peace-prize/). His contract is currently trading at just a 1% implied probability. Trump's recent [campaign](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/10/07/trump-renews-nobel-peace-prize-push/92140883007/) for the prize may have helped generate outsized trading activity on his contract relative to the rest of the field. Another $12.4 million has traded on contracts that currently have less than a 1% implied probability of winning. That means roughly 70% of the market's volume is tied to either Trump's contract or ones that are considered even bigger long shots. Last year, a late surge of "Yes" buying pushed Machado's probability from 0.8% to 72.8% in a matter of hours. This year, most of the volume comes from trading "Yes" or "No" shares on candidates whose probabilities remain at 1% or lower, and no candidate is trading higher than a 15% probability. Each year, the director of PRIO publishes a personal list for the Peace Prize. PRIO explicitly states that it has "[no association with the Nobel Institute or the Norwegian Nobel Committee](https://www.prio.org/nobellist/2026)," but the list still offers a useful signal as to how peace researchers are evaluating the field. The eventual Peace Prize winner has appeared on PRIO's five-entry list in three of 11 years since 2015\. [PRIO's 2026 Peace Prize List](https://www.prio.org/nobellist/2026) includes: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms, Mykola Kuleba and Save the Children, The Committee to Protect Journalists, The International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court, and The International Space Station. Six of the seven Nobel Peace Prize favorites appear on the PRIO list. Identifying those favorites did not require digital espionage. For now, at least, a little peace research will do. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: Digger Bombed at the Box Office. Polymarket Saw It Coming.](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/digger-box-office-bomb/)  ### Digger Bombed at the Box Office. Polymarket Saw It Coming. [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/digger-box-office-bomb/) [Open article: How Four Weeks Reshaped the NFL Playoff Picture](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-four-weeks-reshaped-the-nfl-playoff-picture/)  ### How Four Weeks Reshaped the NFL Playoff Picture [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-four-weeks-reshaped-the-nfl-playoff-picture/) [Open article: Why Certain NFL Games Dominate Prediction Markets](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nfl-games-dominating-prediction-markets/)  ### Why Certain NFL Games Dominate Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nfl-games-dominating-prediction-markets/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/nobel-peace-prize-betting-surges-after-last-years-suspected-breach/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/nobel-peace-prize-betting-surges-after-last-years-suspected-breach/"},"headline":"Nobel Peace Prize Betting Surges After Last Year's Suspected Breach","datePublished":"2026-10-07T22:52:44.562Z","dateModified":"2026-10-07T22:52:39.446Z","description":"After suspicious trading preceded last year's winner announcement, this year's Nobel Peace Prize market is even bigger—but the activity so far looks much more ordinary.","url":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/nobel-peace-prize-betting-surges-after-last-years-suspected-breach/","keywords":[],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltf7078c8e5b91e81b/6ac5c8400ce84aec13fadc74/GettyImages-1832757177.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Annie Nader","jobTitle":"Prediction Markets Analyst","url":"https://time.com/author/annie-nader/"}],"articleSection":"Prediction Markets","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltf7078c8e5b91e81b/6ac5c8400ce84aec13fadc74/GettyImages-1832757177.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"GettyImages-1832757177.jpg","caption":"","creditText":"Sergei Gapon—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/nobel-peace-prize-betting-surges-after-last-years-suspected-breach/","name":"Nobel Peace Prize Betting Surges After Last Year's Suspected Breach"}}]}] ```