--- title: Brewers vs. Rays World Series Odds: Why Milwaukee Is Favored description: The Brewers and Rays defied preseason odds to reach the 2026 World Series. Here's why prediction markets give Milwaukee the edge—and how Tampa Bay could spoil it. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/no-one-budgeted-for-this-world-series/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-10-23T22:48:07.899Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-23T22:48:08.105Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: Brewers vs. Rays World Series Odds: Why Milwaukee Is Favored og:description: The Brewers and Rays defied preseason odds to reach the 2026 World Series. Here's why prediction markets give Milwaukee the edge—and how Tampa Bay could spoil it. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/no-one-budgeted-for-this-world-series/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt0520a5c457ab7286/6adb9f3ca69c6d705ba7b638/GettyImages-2299247761.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2299247761.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Brewers vs. Rays World Series Odds: Why Milwaukee Is Favored twitter:description: The Brewers and Rays defied preseason odds to reach the 2026 World Series. Here's why prediction markets give Milwaukee the edge—and how Tampa Bay could spoil it. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt0520a5c457ab7286/6adb9f3ca69c6d705ba7b638/GettyImages-2299247761.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # No One Budgeted for This World Series > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Subscription: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition TIME is a general-interest news organization founded in 1923, reporting on the people, ideas and issues shaping the world. A TIME subscription provides full access to that journalism in print and digital, from $20 a year, and can be cancelled at any time. 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Its journalism is reported and edited by a professional newsroom led by Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs, with named correspondents on politics, climate, health, technology and culture. It reaches 1 million US print subscribers and 1.15 million globally, plus more than 1.1 million newsletter readers. #### How do I subscribe to TIME magazine? Subscriptions are at time.com/subscribe-agent. Choose digital only at $20 a year, or print and digital from $29 a year or $49 for two years. TIME also publishes seven free email newsletters at time.com/newsletters, which do not require a subscription. #### Can I cancel a TIME subscription? Yes. TIME states that subscriptions can be cancelled at any time. #### Does TIME have free newsletters? Yes. TIME publishes seven free email newsletters reaching more than 1.1 million readers, covering daily news, Washington politics, health, AI, climate and energy, culture, and the newsroom itself. They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-sub-2026q3/newsletters?i=78b668bf-59b3-4546-a877-ce7ab5894527&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) * TIME Subscriptions: [time.com/subscribe-agent](/c/time-sub-2026q3/subscribe?i=78b668bf-59b3-4546-a877-ce7ab5894527&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Oct 23, 2026 10:48 PM UTC  Jacob Misiorowski #32 of the Milwaukee Brewers takes the field prior to Game One of the National League Championship Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin on Sunday, October 11, 2026. Jacob Misiorowski #32 of the Milwaukee Brewers takes the field prior to Game One of the National League Championship Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin on Sunday, October 11, 2026. Daniel Shirey—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Oct 23, 2026 10:48 PM UTC In 2015, the Milwaukee Brewers decided they did not have to reach the Fall Classic to sell tickets to it. The $1,000 "[Timeless Ticket](https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/%5F/id/50232657/brewers-fans-cashing-2015-promo-irked-world-series-seats)" promised fans the best available seat for any future home game, including the World Series. Tickets to Game 1 of the 2026 World Series between the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays are starting around [$3,000](https://www.vividseats.com/milwaukee-brewers-tickets-american-family-field-10-26-2026--sports-mlb-baseball/production/7299683?wsUser=717&wsVar=us%7Emlb%7Eschedule%2Cmlb%2Cen). Fans who bought in 11 years earlier were in for a greater return on investment than the Atlanta Braves got from Ronald Acuña Jr. But when those early believers cashed in this week, [some](https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/%5F/id/50232657/brewers-fans-cashing-2015-promo-irked-world-series-seats) were offered upper-deck seats or standing-room-only tickets, hardly the best seats in the house. The [Brewers apologized](https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/%5F/id/50232657/brewers-fans-cashing-2015-promo-irked-world-series-seats) for failing to fully deliver on the "Timeless Ticket" promo. In fairness to Milwaukee's promotions department, it wasn't the only one that didn't save the Brew Crew a seat at the World Series. The Brewers and Rays led the National League and American League, respectively, in wins this season. They are a remarkably unlikely World Series pairing. [Seven MLB teams](https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/%5F/year/2026) had a higher payroll than the Brewers and Rays combined this season. This marks the first World Series since [1991](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/lockout-looming-world-series-could-175836489.html) in which both teams rank in the bottom half of payroll. Market makers had about as much faith in these teams as their payrolls suggested: the Brewers entered this season [13th](https://www.covers.com/sportsoddshistory/mlb-main/?y=2026&sa=mlb&a=ws) on the World Series odds boards; the Rays were [22nd](https://www.covers.com/sportsoddshistory/mlb-main/?y=2026&sa=mlb&a=ws). Then both teams earned No. 1 seeds, only to enter postseason series against the Yankees and Dodgers as underdogs. Both swept their opponents. Now for the first time since [Phillies-Royals in 1980](https://www.mlb.com/news/rays-brewers-each-vying-for-first-world-series-title), the World Series features two franchises seeking their first title—and either would be the [lowest-ranked World Series champion by payroll](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-dodgers-are-finally-underdogs/) in at least 23 years. The market heavily favors one side, even as that team's biggest weapon prepares to meet his match. ## World Series Odds Below are the [2026 World Series odds between the Brewers and Rays](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmlb/world-series/kxmlb-26), per Kalshi.  Kalshi and Polymarket give the Brewers a 65% chance of winning the 2026 World Series ahead of Game 1\. Seven of the past 10 teams that were [favored](https://www.covers.com/sportsoddshistory/mlb-main/?y=2026&sa=mlb&a=ws) entering the World Series ultimately won it. That's roughly what you would expect from teams favored to win in the first place, but underlying trends suggest Milwaukee deserves to be _favored_, at least. Since 1995, teams with home-field advantage have won 20 of 30, or 66.7%, World Series. Some of that success may have less to do with playing at home than being the better team to begin with. Since 2017, home-field advantage has gone to the team with the better regular-season record. But remember back from 2003 to 2016, when MLB somehow let something as arbitrary and uncompetitive as the All-Star Game determine World Series home-field advantage: teams with home-field advantage still won nine of 14 World Series in that span, a 64% win rate. The Brewers will have home-field advantage after winning an MLB-best 103 games this season. Milwaukee also led the league with a +214 run differential, compared with the Rays at +86, the sixth-best mark. The team with the better regular-season run differential has come out on top in 21 of the past 31 World Series. Second-year phenom Jacob Misiorowski will take the bump for the Brewers in Game 1\. Misiorowski finished the regular season with a 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and 252 strikeouts, all league-leading marks. The northpaw held opponents to a .157 batting average this season, [breaking Pedro Martinez's previous record](https://www.mlb.com/news/jacob-misiorowski-finishes-2026-season-strong-vs-cardinals) of a .167 batting average allowed set in 2000\. Misiorowski's strikeout rate has fallen to 29.7% this postseason after posting a 37.9% [strikeout rate](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jacob-misiorowski/31623/stats/pitching) in the regular season. And while it's mind-boggling that a 29.7% strikeout rate qualifies as a drop-off, the Rays are the last lineup any hurler wants to face when their strikeout numbers are trending down. The Rays struck out at an MLB-low 18.8% rate this season and, even against the best arms in baseball, have maintained a conservative 20.6% strikeout rate this postseason. Milwaukee's ace can throw [105 mph](https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/%5F/id/49194044/jacob-misiorowski-throws-heater-clocked-1055-mph-vs-cubs). Tampa Bay's hitters are terrible at striking out. Whichever quality proves more overpowering over the next nine days could decide this series. One of these franchises is four wins away from its first World Series title. Traders think the "Timeless Ticket" will be worth framing. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: Tesla's Flying Roadster Hasn't Landed With Traders](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/tesla-flying-roadster-hasnt-landed-with-traders/)  ### Tesla's Flying Roadster Hasn't Landed With Traders [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/tesla-flying-roadster-hasnt-landed-with-traders/) [Open article: Jay-Z Will Reportedly Headline the Super Bowl. Who Could Join Him?](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/is-jay-z-headlining-the-super-bowl-halftime-show/)  ### Jay-Z Will Reportedly Headline the Super Bowl. Who Could Join Him? [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/is-jay-z-headlining-the-super-bowl-halftime-show/) [Open article: The Knicks Begin Title Defense Against LeBron—and the Odds](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-knicks-begin-title-defense-against-lebron/)  ### The Knicks Begin Title Defense Against LeBron—and the Odds [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-knicks-begin-title-defense-against-lebron/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/no-one-budgeted-for-this-world-series/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/no-one-budgeted-for-this-world-series/"},"headline":"No One Budgeted for This World Series","datePublished":"2026-10-23T22:48:07.899Z","dateModified":"2026-10-23T22:48:08.105Z","description":"The Brewers and Rays spent October proving the odds wrong. 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