--- title: NASCAR Championship Odds: Can Anyone Catch Kyle Larson? description: Kyle Larson enters the NASCAR Cup Series Championship with a 67-point lead. Here's what he needs to clinch at Homestead. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/nascar-cup-championship/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-11-06T23:58:55.952Z article:modified_time: 2026-11-06T23:58:56.192Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: NASCAR Championship Odds: Can Anyone Catch Kyle Larson? og:description: Kyle Larson enters the NASCAR Cup Series Championship with a 67-point lead. Here's what he needs to clinch at Homestead. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/nascar-cup-championship/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt04be47a8fcf3039b/6aee2592cdd40882af4d3918/GettyImages-2303024419.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2303024419.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: NASCAR Championship Odds: Can Anyone Catch Kyle Larson? twitter:description: Kyle Larson enters the NASCAR Cup Series Championship with a 67-point lead. Here's what he needs to clinch at Homestead. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt04be47a8fcf3039b/6aee2592cdd40882af4d3918/GettyImages-2303024419.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # NASCAR's Next Champion Could Finish Last > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Subscription: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition TIME is a general-interest news organization founded in 1923, reporting on the people, ideas and issues shaping the world. A TIME subscription provides full access to that journalism in print and digital, from $20 a year, and can be cancelled at any time. 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They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-sub-2026q3/newsletters?i=8be27f67-98e9-4084-8858-af41cdd09ad8&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) * TIME Subscriptions: [time.com/subscribe-agent](/c/time-sub-2026q3/subscribe?i=8be27f67-98e9-4084-8858-af41cdd09ad8&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Nov 6, 2026 11:58 PM UTC  Kyle Larson, driver of the #5 HendrickCars.com Chevrolet, races during the NASCAR Cup Series Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway in Martinsville, Virginia on November 1, 2026. Kyle Larson, driver of the #5 HendrickCars.com Chevrolet, races during the NASCAR Cup Series Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway in Martinsville, Virginia on November 1, 2026. David Jensen—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Nov 6, 2026 11:58 PM UTC The greatest tradition in modern sports is no tradition. Since 2020, the NFL, NBA, MLB, and MLS have all revised their postseason formats. So have college football and basketball. NASCAR has taken that trend for a spin. Ahead of the 2026 season, NASCAR replaced its four-driver, one-race title showdown with a 10-race Chase decided on accumulated points. NASCAR president Steve O'Donnell said the format was meant to "[embrace the hardcore fan](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2026/01/12/nascar-returns-to-chase-championship-format-for-2026/)" and "[reward consistency throughout all of the 36 races](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2026/01/12/nascar-returns-to-chase-championship-format-for-2026/)" while stressing the importance of winning. The format delivered on every stated goal, perhaps at NASCAR's expense. The gap between winning and almost winning has quadrupled. Under the previous [scoring system](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2026/01/12/nascar-returns-to-chase-championship-format-for-2026/), race winners earned 40 points and runners-up earned 35\. The new system gives 55 points to winners and 35 points to runners-up, with each Chase race carrying the same weight as the next. Diehards who treat an early September Chase race with the same reverence as the season finale now have a scoring system that reflects that. But in an effort to reward consistency and make every Chase race count, NASCAR may have identified its champion too early. The NASCAR Cup Series Championship returns to Homestead-Miami Speedway this weekend, and a certain driver could win the championship without even finishing Sunday's race. ## NASCAR Cup Series Odds Below are the [2026 NASCAR Cup Series Champion odds](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnascarcupseries/nascar-cup-series-champion/kxnascarcupseries-ncs26), per Kalshi.  There's a real chance the NASCAR Cup Series champion was decided at Talladega. Entering that race on October 25, Kyle Larson (27%), Christopher Bell (24%), and Denny Hamlin (18%) were within nine percentage points of one another in Kalshi's Cup Series champion market. Larson won and picked up 71 points while Hamlin finished eighth with 29 points and Bell 35th with two points. Larson's lead over the field ballooned from five points to 73 points in one afternoon. So heading into [Martinsville](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2026/11/01/hamlin-bell-martinsville-chase/) last weekend, the penultimate Chase race, any chance at a suspenseful Homestead required Bell or Hamlin to find another gear on the back of a Larson speed bump. Larson finished ninth, his second-worst result of the Chase. The field clawed back six points. Larson now has a 67-point lead over the field and a 95% chance of winning the title this weekend. Bell and Hamlin are the only other drivers still mathematically in play for the Cup. Each is priced at 3%. The [scenarios](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2026/11/03/championship-clinching-scenarios-for-homestead-miami-speedway/) needed for either to win suggest those contract listings are little more than a formality. Drivers can earn a maximum of 76 points at Homestead. Bell and Hamlin would need to outscore Larson by 68 and 71 points, respectively, to win the Cup, while nine points would earn Larson the title regardless of how the rest of the field shakes out—and [he's never scored fewer than 18 points across 12 races at Homestead](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2026/11/03/championship-clinching-scenarios-for-homestead-miami-speedway/). There's even a scenario where Larson places last this weekend and still wins the Cup, though the market is fading any victory lap from the back of the pack. Larson is the favorite to win at Homestead at 18%. He could become the first repeat Cup champion since Jimmie Johnson's five-title streak ended in 2010\.  Bell and Hamlin were both excused from appearing at Thursday's championship media day, where Larson acknowledged the absurdity of his commanding lead: "[I think that's the pressure. Like 'man, don't \[expletive\] it up at this point](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2026/11/05/cup-series-kyle-larson-no-5-team-establish-identity-pursuing-third-championship/).'" If you ain't first, you're last. Unless you're Kyle Larson. Then you can be both. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: The Internet Has Its Own Coachella Lineup](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/cochella-headliners-odds/)  ### The Internet Has Its Own Coachella Lineup [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/cochella-headliners-odds/) [Open article: The CFP Rankings Put Favorites on Notice](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-first-cfp-rankings-are-in-here-s-how-the-odds-reacted/)  ### The CFP Rankings Put Favorites on Notice [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-first-cfp-rankings-are-in-here-s-how-the-odds-reacted/) [Open article: The Recipe for Picking the World's Best Restaurant](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/world-s-best-restaurant-odds/)  ### The Recipe for Picking the World's Best Restaurant [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/world-s-best-restaurant-odds/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/nascar-cup-championship/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/nascar-cup-championship/"},"headline":"NASCAR's Next Champion Could Finish Last","datePublished":"2026-11-06T23:58:55.952Z","dateModified":"2026-11-06T23:58:56.192Z","description":"NASCAR's new championship format rewards consistency across 10 races. 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