--- title: 2026 MLB World Series Odds: Trade Deadline Risers and Fallers description: The Dodgers became overwhelming World Series favorites after landing Tarik Skubal. See how the Red Sox, Brewers, and other contenders moved after the deadline. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/mlb-world-series-odds-dodgers-surge-after-skubal-trade/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-08-04T20:54:08.662Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T20:54:03.766Z og:title: 2026 MLB World Series Odds: Trade Deadline Risers and Fallers og:description: The Dodgers became overwhelming World Series favorites after landing Tarik Skubal. See how the Red Sox, Brewers, and other contenders moved after the deadline. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/mlb-world-series-odds-dodgers-surge-after-skubal-trade/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltc479e3a231e7cb4f/6a71222c65e47d64bcd97609/GettyImages-2286128000.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 675 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2286128000.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: 2026 MLB World Series Odds: Trade Deadline Risers and Fallers twitter:description: The Dodgers became overwhelming World Series favorites after landing Tarik Skubal. See how the Red Sox, Brewers, and other contenders moved after the deadline. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltc479e3a231e7cb4f/6a71222c65e47d64bcd97609/GettyImages-2286128000.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # MLB World Series Odds: Dodgers Surge After Skubal Trade by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Aug 4, 2026 8:54 PM UTC  Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Dodgers celebrates after hitting a home run during the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, California on July 12, 2026. Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Dodgers celebrates after hitting a home run during the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, California on July 12, 2026.Ryan Sun—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Aug 4, 2026 8:54 PM UTC The Los Angeles Dodgers got swept over the weekend. Their World Series probability still jumped. Some teams leave a sweep searching for answers. Los Angeles' answer takes the mound tonight. On Saturday night, the [Dodgers traded for Tarik Skubal](https://www.mlb.com/news/tarik-skubal-dodgers-tigers-trade), pairing the back-to-back World Series champs with the back-to-back Cy Young winner. The rest of baseball handled the news with all the composure [David Ortiz brought to a dugout phone](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3eoro-V97l0). That's the catch in a league with no hard salary cap: the teams that need the least can add the most. The Dodgers have made that imbalance a business model. Win the World Series; win the offseason. Enter the trade deadline with the best record in baseball; exit it with the best pitcher in baseball. Worth an estimated $7.8 billion, the [second-highest valuation in MLB](https://www.forbes.com/sites/justinteitelbaum/2026/03/20/baseballs-most-valuable-teams-2026/), the Dodgers have used their spending power to build a superteam. Every star they add—from Shohei Ohtani to Kyle Tucker and now Skubal—drives home baseball's favorite complaint: [the Dodgers are ruining the game](https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/%5F/id/49516516/andrew-friedman-dave-roberts-push-back-narrative-dodgers-ruining-baseball-tarik-skubal-trade). Sure, Los Angeles' [$312 million payroll](https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/%5F/year/2026) could fund the Cleveland Guardians' roster four times over—and then some. But spending doesn't always equal winning. The New York Mets have spent the summer putting the embarrassment in riches: MLB's most expensive roster has produced an NL East-worst 47-66 record. The Boston Red Sox are the third-most valuable franchise in the league but spend like its 10th, proof that financial power is only power when deployed. Frustrating as it may be for some fans, the Dodgers are not breaking the system MLB built. They are what it rewards. Monday's trade deadline forced every club to choose a side: buy for October, sell for next season, or bet that standing pat was enough. The Skubal trade gave the Dodgers one of the most commanding World Series odds leads on record, but it wasn't the only move to reshape the market. Here's where the 2026 MLB World Series race stands following the trade deadline. ## 2026 MLB World Series Odds Below are the [2026 MLB World Series odds](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmlb/world-series/kxmlb-26), per Kalshi.  The Dodgers' odds to win the World Series climbed from a 35% to 41% implied probability following the acquisition of Skubal, and [DraftKings Sportsbook](https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/page/world-series-odds) now lists them at +150\. For context, the average [World Series favorite](https://www.covers.com/sportsoddshistory/world-series-favorites-entering-the-playoffs/) over the last 10 seasons entered the postseason with roughly +300 odds. Since 2010, only one team has carried shorter than +205 odds into the playoffs. The Dodgers are not just favored. They are priced like a historical outlier. Next to that moonshot, every other move may look like a shallow pop-up to left. But several teams may have reshaped their October plans with the trades they made—or the ones they didn't. [Fifteen straight wins](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-15-straight-wins-repriced-the-red-sox/) flipped the Red Sox from sellers to shoppers. They approached the deadline with the reckless abandon of a Kohl's customer without a coupon: Boston [sent three of its top five prospects](https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/%5F/id/49522617/sources-orioles-trade-all-star-catcher-rutschman-red-sox) to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for Adley Rutschman, then [traded former top prospect](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7490092/2026/08/03/marcelo-mayer-trade-erik-miller-red-sox-sf-giants-analysis/) Marcelo Mayer to the San Francisco Giants for reliever Erik Miller. Some [analysts](https://www.boston.com/sports/morning-sports-update/2026/08/04/adley-rutschman-trade-red-sox/#utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com) viewed the packages as overpays; others labeled Boston a [trade deadline loser](https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/%5F/id/49521556/mlb-trade-deadline-2026-reaction-biggest-winners-losers-dodgers-orioles-phillies-brewers) in the long term. The market graded only for October. The Red Sox's World Series probability more than doubled, from 3.2% to 7.9%. Other deadline buyers also moved up the World Series board: the Cubs rose from 3.8% to 4.7% after adding Kevin Gausman, the Rays from 5.0% to 5.6% after adding Freddy Peralta, and the Phillies from 4.2% to 5.3% after adding Luis Arraez. Not every contender received a deadline bump. The Milwaukee Brewers have the best record in MLB as of Tuesday afternoon, but their World Series probability plunged from 12.6% to 8.1% after [losing out in the Skubal sweepstakes](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/brewers-missed-tarik-skubal-why-165052792.html). Only 6 of the last 20 World Series champions entered the postseason as the favorite, but 16 of those 20 champions ranked among MLB's top 10 in payroll. October can overturn the odds, but it has proved less capable of overturning the balance sheet. Milwaukee has the best record and a bottom-third payroll. Los Angeles has the second-highest payroll and a chance to win a third straight title. With [labor negotiations](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7486126/2026/08/02/tarik-skubal-dodgers-trade-reaction-mlb-lockout/) looming, the World Series could send the league into the winter with the Brewers as the rebuttal—or a Dodgers three-peat as Exhibit A. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: Prediction Markets Called Spider-Man's Box Office Record](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/prediction-markets-saw-spider-man-s-box-office-record-coming/)  ### Prediction Markets Called Spider-Man's Box Office Record [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/prediction-markets-saw-spider-man-s-box-office-record-coming/) [Open article: Why Big Brother Works as a Prediction Market](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/big-brother-may-be-the-perfect-reality-show-for-prediction-markets/)  ### Why Big Brother Works as a Prediction Market [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/big-brother-may-be-the-perfect-reality-show-for-prediction-markets/) [Open article: Pete Crow-Armstrong Crashes the Ohtani MVP Market](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/pete-crow-armstrong-crashes-the-nl-mvp-market/)  ### Pete Crow-Armstrong Crashes the Ohtani MVP Market [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/pete-crow-armstrong-crashes-the-nl-mvp-market/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/mlb-world-series-odds-dodgers-surge-after-skubal-trade/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/mlb-world-series-odds-dodgers-surge-after-skubal-trade/"},"headline":"MLB World Series Odds: Dodgers Surge After Skubal Trade","datePublished":"2026-08-04T20:54:08.662Z","dateModified":"2026-08-04T20:54:03.766Z","description":"The Dodgers traded for baseball's best pitcher, sending its title probability into historic territory—and reshaping the October outlook across MLB.","url":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/mlb-world-series-odds-dodgers-surge-after-skubal-trade/","keywords":[],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltc479e3a231e7cb4f/6a71222c65e47d64bcd97609/GettyImages-2286128000.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Annie Nader","jobTitle":"Prediction Markets Analyst","url":"https://time.com/author/annie-nader/"}],"articleSection":"","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltc479e3a231e7cb4f/6a71222c65e47d64bcd97609/GettyImages-2286128000.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"GettyImages-2286128000.jpg","caption":"","creditText":"Ryan Sun—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/mlb-world-series-odds-dodgers-surge-after-skubal-trade/","name":"MLB World Series Odds: Dodgers Surge After Skubal Trade"}}]}] ```