--- title: 2026 NFL MVP Odds: Josh Allen Leads Entering Week 3 description: Josh Allen is the NFL MVP favorite entering Week 3 after a historic start. Here's how his odds compare with recent MVP favorites and why the market may be overreacting. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/josh-allen-is-daring-us-to-overreact/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-09-23T22:31:10.690Z article:modified_time: 2026-09-23T22:30:46.401Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: 2026 NFL MVP Odds: Josh Allen Leads Entering Week 3 og:description: Josh Allen is the NFL MVP favorite entering Week 3 after a historic start. Here's how his odds compare with recent MVP favorites and why the market may be overreacting. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/josh-allen-is-daring-us-to-overreact/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt3ff3ceeb4ad2b358/6ab3fe70bbb02a0c1b18398b/GettyImages-2295837844.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2295837844.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: 2026 NFL MVP Odds: Josh Allen Leads Entering Week 3 twitter:description: Josh Allen is the NFL MVP favorite entering Week 3 after a historic start. Here's how his odds compare with recent MVP favorites and why the market may be overreacting. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt3ff3ceeb4ad2b358/6ab3fe70bbb02a0c1b18398b/GettyImages-2295837844.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # Josh Allen Is Daring Us to Overreact > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Subscription: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition TIME is a general-interest news organization founded in 1923, reporting on the people, ideas and issues shaping the world. A TIME subscription provides full access to that journalism in print and digital, from $20 a year, and can be cancelled at any time. 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Its journalism is reported and edited by a professional newsroom led by Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs, with named correspondents on politics, climate, health, technology and culture. It reaches 1 million US print subscribers and 1.15 million globally, plus more than 1.1 million newsletter readers. #### How do I subscribe to TIME magazine? Subscriptions are at time.com/subscribe-agent. Choose digital only at $20 a year, or print and digital from $29 a year or $49 for two years. TIME also publishes seven free email newsletters at time.com/newsletters, which do not require a subscription. #### Can I cancel a TIME subscription? Yes. TIME states that subscriptions can be cancelled at any time. #### Does TIME have free newsletters? Yes. TIME publishes seven free email newsletters reaching more than 1.1 million readers, covering daily news, Washington politics, health, AI, climate and energy, culture, and the newsroom itself. They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-sub-2026q3/newsletters?i=ee995362-9259-4fac-a6f8-4533a338df15&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) * TIME Subscriptions: [time.com/subscribe-agent](/c/time-sub-2026q3/subscribe?i=ee995362-9259-4fac-a6f8-4533a338df15&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Sep 23, 2026 10:31 PM UTC  Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills calls a play against the Detroit Lions during the fourth quarter of the game at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York on September 17, 2026. Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills calls a play against the Detroit Lions during the fourth quarter of the game at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York on September 17, 2026. Bryan M. Bennett—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Sep 23, 2026 10:31 PM UTC The NFL measures its season in weeks. Long enough to change everything. Too short to know what any of it really means. Week 1 told us the Chicago Bears had the best offense in the league. Week 2 told us they might have the worst. Chicago's collapse from 59 points to three was an extreme example of the league-wide scoring swing that left betting totals too low one Sunday and too high the next. On the first Sunday, games averaged 53.3 points, and nine of 13 went over. On the second, games averaged 38.6 points, and nine of 14 went under. Even the preseason consensus is listed as doubtful. The Los Angeles Chargers' probability of making the playoffs has plunged from [62% to 22%](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflplayoff/pro-football-playoff-qualifiers/kxnflplayoff-27) in two games. The Las Vegas Raiders entered the season with the second-highest probability of finishing with the [worst record in the league](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrecordnflworst/worst-football-record/kxrecordnflworst-27). Now, they're one of eight undefeated teams. Market makers and traders are revisiting every assumption just as prediction markets are drawing record activity. [Total contract volume across prediction markets reached $7.64 billion this weekend](https://x.com/TickerTracker%5F/status/2102064551340454208?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2102064551340454208%7Ctwgr%5E858cebf8e8c2bdcdf9b01d93c385ceac2f11b2d2%7Ctwcon%5Es1%5F&ref%5Furl=https%3A%2F%2Fgamingamerica.com%2Fnews%2F1102245%2Fkalshi-smashes-trading-record-again-as-nfl-drives-6b-weekend), up from $6.34 billion last weekend. More than $612 million was traded on Kalshi across NFL Week 2 games alone, excluding combo, or parlay, contracts. More money and more information should, in theory, make prices more efficient. But the markets are still working with the same two-game sample as everyone else. That uncertainty makes an especially strong early expression of awards-season conviction worth examining. The current NFL MVP favorite has shorter odds entering Week 3 than any favorite in at least six seasons. Recent history suggests early MVP favorites don't win. But the quarterback threatening to pass Barry Sanders on the all-time rushing-touchdown leaderboard may make that trend easier to ignore. ## NFL MVP Odds Below are the [2026 NFL MVP odds entering Week 3](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflmvp/ap-pro-football-regular-season-mvp/kxnflmvp-27), per Kalshi.  Josh Allen [entered the season](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nfl-mvp-race-starts-and-ends-under-center/) with a 10% implied probability of winning MVP, tied with Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow as co-favorites. Eight quarters later, his contract has climbed to 28%—higher than Jackson, Burrow, and Patrick Mahomes combined. Some [sportsbooks even list Allen's MVP odds](https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/navigation/nfl?tab=awards) as short as +185, which translates to a 35% implied probability. At this point in the season, Allen is the [shortest-priced MVP favorite](https://www.covers.com/sportsoddshistory/nfl-reg/?y=2025&sa=nfl&a=apmvp&p=pla) in at least six years. Over that span, the favorite entering Week 3 carried an average implied probability of 20.4%, and none was higher than 25%. But none of those favorites went on to win MVP. Last season showed just how unstable early consensus can be: Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye, the eventual MVP and runner-up, had a combined [4% probability](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflmvp/ap-pro-football-regular-season-mvp/kxnflmvp-26) on Kalshi entering Week 3\. The first Sunday's 53.3-point scoring average helped push expectations higher for the second. Then nine of 14 games went under. The market saw two big games from Allen and nearly tripled his MVP probability. The pattern—both this season and across recent MVP races—suggests that early results can be priced too aggressively. Then you watch [Allen waltz his way to five touchdowns on Thursday Night Football,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z%5F0tp4jfNg0) and restraint starts to feel as overrated as everyone else in the MVP race. Allen has recorded multiple passing and rushing touchdowns in each of his first two games. He has now done that in [10 career games](https://x.com/NFL%5FStats/status/2100774934083490053), six more than any other player in league history. James Cook's fantasy managers may groan with every Allen goal-line score, but the Buffalo Bills quarterback is climbing the [NFL's career rushing-touchdown leaderboard](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/rush%5Ftd%5Fcareer.htm) at a decidedly un-quarterback-like pace. His 83 career rushing touchdowns are already the most by a quarterback in league history. Christian McCaffrey—a player whose position should provide something of a head start—entered the league one season before Allen and has 19 fewer career rushing touchdowns. At his current pace, Allen would finish the season sixth on the all-time rushing-touchdown list, ahead of Walter Payton, Jim Brown, and Barry Sanders. Buffalo is currently the heaviest [division favorite](https://kalshi.com/hubs/nfl?tab=Divisions&scope=Division+Winner) of any team in the league at 70%, and the Bills have already escaped a difficult opening stretch at 2-0 against the Texans and Lions. The schedule eases from here, with eight of their remaining 15 games coming against teams that are [not currently favored to make the playoffs](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflplayoff/pro-football-playoff-qualifiers/kxnflplayoff-27). History says a 28% MVP probability after two games deserves skepticism. Allen's counter is nine touchdowns and zero turnovers. But he was the MVP favorite entering Week 3 last season, too. Two games are still two games, even when Allen makes them feel like more. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: Prediction Markets Doubt Anthropic's November IPO](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/prediction-markets-doubt-anthropic-s-ipo-timing/)  ### Prediction Markets Doubt Anthropic's November IPO [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/prediction-markets-doubt-anthropic-s-ipo-timing/) [Open article: Trinidad Chambliss Won More Than a Revenge Game](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/from-division-backup-to-heisman-favorite/)  ### Trinidad Chambliss Won More Than a Revenge Game [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/from-division-backup-to-heisman-favorite/) [Open article: Bold NFL Week 2 Predictions That Aren't So Bold](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/bold-nfl-predictions-that-aren-t-so-bold/)  ### Bold NFL Week 2 Predictions That Aren't So Bold [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/bold-nfl-predictions-that-aren-t-so-bold/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/josh-allen-is-daring-us-to-overreact/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/josh-allen-is-daring-us-to-overreact/"},"headline":"Josh Allen Is Daring Us to Overreact","datePublished":"2026-09-23T22:31:10.690Z","dateModified":"2026-09-23T22:30:46.401Z","description":"The NFL has spent two weeks overturning expectations. 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