--- title: 2026 NFL MVP Odds: Joe Burrow Chases a Historic 5,000-50 Season description: Joe Burrow is chasing a 5,000-yard, 50-touchdown passing season and his first NFL MVP. Compare his odds and stats with Josh Allen and the other contenders. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/joe-burrow-mvp/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-11-10T00:12:48.487Z article:modified_time: 2026-11-10T00:12:48.658Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: 2026 NFL MVP Odds: Joe Burrow Chases a Historic 5,000-50 Season og:description: Joe Burrow is chasing a 5,000-yard, 50-touchdown passing season and his first NFL MVP. Compare his odds and stats with Josh Allen and the other contenders. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/joe-burrow-mvp/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltf6e99a5a18802b2d/6af1f1ea09298f39fd213033/GettyImages-2303708542.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2303708542.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: 2026 NFL MVP Odds: Joe Burrow Chases a Historic 5,000-50 Season twitter:description: Joe Burrow is chasing a 5,000-yard, 50-touchdown passing season and his first NFL MVP. Compare his odds and stats with Josh Allen and the other contenders. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltf6e99a5a18802b2d/6af1f1ea09298f39fd213033/GettyImages-2303708542.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # Joe Burrow Is Making a Pass at History > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Subscription: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition TIME is a general-interest news organization founded in 1923, reporting on the people, ideas and issues shaping the world. A TIME subscription provides full access to that journalism in print and digital, from $20 a year, and can be cancelled at any time. 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Its journalism is reported and edited by a professional newsroom led by Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs, with named correspondents on politics, climate, health, technology and culture. It reaches 1 million US print subscribers and 1.15 million globally, plus more than 1.1 million newsletter readers. #### How do I subscribe to TIME magazine? Subscriptions are at time.com/subscribe-agent. Choose digital only at $20 a year, or print and digital from $29 a year or $49 for two years. TIME also publishes seven free email newsletters at time.com/newsletters, which do not require a subscription. #### Can I cancel a TIME subscription? Yes. TIME states that subscriptions can be cancelled at any time. #### Does TIME have free newsletters? Yes. TIME publishes seven free email newsletters reaching more than 1.1 million readers, covering daily news, Washington politics, health, AI, climate and energy, culture, and the newsroom itself. They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-sub-2026q3/newsletters?i=f381cee2-133f-4139-91c2-22de6ba9fd0c&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) * TIME Subscriptions: [time.com/subscribe-agent](/c/time-sub-2026q3/subscribe?i=f381cee2-133f-4139-91c2-22de6ba9fd0c&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Nov 10, 2026 12:12 AM UTC  Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) celebrates a touchdown during the NFL game between the Cincinnati Bengals and Atlanta Falcons at Santiago Bernabeu Stadium in Madrid, Spain on November 8, 2026. Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) celebrates a touchdown during the NFL game between the Cincinnati Bengals and Atlanta Falcons at Santiago Bernabeu Stadium in Madrid, Spain on November 8, 2026. Bob Kupbens—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Nov 10, 2026 12:12 AM UTC Baker Mayfield and Caleb Williams threw one in every five passes to the wrong team during a 28-attempt stretch Sunday night. The six interceptions were the most in any NFL game in almost two years. The sloppy win may have cost Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson his customary post-victory [Stanky Legg](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/%5F/id/50415535/ben-johnson-chicago-bears-stanky-legg), but plenty of coaches around the league would envy his don't-make-me-dance situation. Established starters—let alone ones like Williams, who can produce a [highlight reel](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7CIkaXdkFk) on a four-pick night, depending on how you splice the tape—are in short supply. The MVP race is now a six-man huddle. [Forty-seven](https://x.com/AdamSchefter/status/2119455835340321279?s=46) different quarterbacks have started a game this season, the [second most through Week 9](https://x.com/AdamSchefter/status/2119455835340321279?s=46) in the past 15 years. Much of that turnover is injury related, perhaps the repercussion of a league that insists on a taxing 17-game schedule and features more international and non-Sunday games than ever. [Matthew Stafford and the Rams don't have a true bye week this season](https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/matthew-staffords-wife-calls-out-nfl-rams-thanksgiving-eve/) but, hey, at least Netflix subscribers know what to do with their Wednesday night later this month. The discontinuity under center should, in theory, produce less concentrated individual interception tallies. The numbers say otherwise: 14 quarterbacks have thrown at least six interceptions, up from 10 at this point last season, and five have thrown at least nine, up from two. Interceptions alone are not the strongest sign that quarterback play has taken a hit, but the uptick in giveaways coincides with expected points added (EPA) metrics that prove defense is more valuable than offense right now. Teams that rank in the top half of [offensive EPA per play](https://sumersports.com/teams/offensive/) have a combined 60.8% winning percentage, while teams that rank in the top half of [defensive EPA per play](https://sumersports.com/teams/defensive/) are at 64.3%. Remove the groups that qualify for both, and the winning percentage gap widens to 7.3 percentage points in favor of the top defensive units. The MVP award goes to individuals, not units. More specifically, it is awarded to quarterbacks—at least the past 13 of them. So how does the market find the most valuable player when so much of the winning is happening on the other side of the ball: narrow the playing field. Six quarterbacks account for 97% of the implied probability in Kalshi's NFL MVP market. Traders have already ruled out all but a handful of names midway through the season. One signal-caller has seen his odds of winning his first MVP climb from 5% to 28% in the past three weeks, and he's nearly on pace to join a club that has accepted only Peyton Manning and Patrick Mahomes while narrowly denying Tom Brady at the door in 2007\. Traders have made him the new MVP favorite. They're not as convinced his lead survives Monday night. ## NFL MVP Odds Below are the [2026 NFL MVP odds](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflmvp/ap-pro-football-regular-season-mvp), per Kalshi.  Josh Allen has thrown for 1,793 yards and 11 touchdowns this season. Joe Burrow has thrown for 1,025 yards and 12 touchdowns in his last _three games_. The side-by-side comparison is not a lame attempt at setting up Allen. He has punched in nine touchdowns himself this season, recently passing Marshawn Lynch on the [all-time rushing touchdowns leaderboard](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/rush%5Ftd%5Fcareer.htm). Allen is on pace to eclipse Barry Sanders by Week 18\. But the Bengals quarterback is knocking on the door of a more exclusive club. Burrow is on pace to throw for 5,070 yards and 49 touchdowns. Nine quarterbacks have reached 5,000 passing yards in a single season, and two have paired it with 50 touchdowns: Peyton Manning in 2013 and Patrick Mahomes in 2018\. Both went on to be named most valuable, while Tom Brady inched close with 4,806 passing yards and 50 touchdowns in his 2007 MVP season. Burrow has made the most of an [anticipated soft schedule](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nfl-mvp-race-starts-and-ends-under-center/), and joining the 5,000/50 club would make MVP a near-non-negotiable. There is a reason only two are members, but Burrow's lookahead lines are encouraging. Five of Cincinnati's remaining nine games are at home, and all but two will come against teams that are currently [favored to miss the playoffs](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflplayoff/pro-football-playoff-qualifiers). It doesn't hurt that Cincinnati's middling defense tends to keep opponents in games—backup quarterback Joe Flacco has yet to attempt a pass this season—potentially sparing Burrow from blowout-induced benchings down the line. The past 10 MVP winners threw at least [3.4 touchdowns per interception](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/brock-purdy-is-beating-the-system/) and were on a team that won at least 11 games. Eleven teams are currently [favored to win 11-plus games](https://kalshi.com/hubs/nfl?tab=Futures&scope=Win+Totals): the Bears, Bengals, Bills, Broncos, Chiefs, Lions, Jaguars, Packers, Vikings, Steelers, and 49ers. Five quarterbacks from those teams have thrown 3.4 touchdowns per interception or better: Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, Trevor Lawrence, Brock Purdy, and Burrow. [Nine of the past 10 MVPs](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/brock-purdy-is-beating-the-system/) also finished the season in the top three in expected points added per dropback. The current EPA leaders: Lawrence, Purdy, and Burrow. All three check every box. Here's where the assessment of _value_ could come into play: Lawrence's defense ranks third in EPA per play, Purdy's ranks ninth, and Burrow's ranks 16th. Each has been incredible in their own right, but only one can claim the winning is _happening_ on their side of the ball. And then there's Allen, who checks in fourth in EPA per dropback with a Bills defense that ranks 27th in EPA per play. Burrow (28%) and Allen (26%) are narrowly separated in the MVP market. Allen has four quarters to intercept the lead tonight. ## ## ## ## ## ## --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: NASCAR's Next Champion Could Finish Last](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/nascar-cup-championship/)  ### NASCAR's Next Champion Could Finish Last [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/nascar-cup-championship/) [Open article: The Internet Has Its Own Coachella Lineup](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/cochella-headliners-odds/)  ### The Internet Has Its Own Coachella Lineup [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/cochella-headliners-odds/) [Open article: The CFP Rankings Put Favorites on Notice](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-first-cfp-rankings-are-in-here-s-how-the-odds-reacted/)  ### The CFP Rankings Put Favorites on Notice [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-first-cfp-rankings-are-in-here-s-how-the-odds-reacted/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/joe-burrow-mvp/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/joe-burrow-mvp/"},"headline":"Joe Burrow Is Making a Pass at History","datePublished":"2026-11-10T00:12:48.487Z","dateModified":"2026-11-10T00:12:48.658Z","description":"Only two quarterbacks have paired 5,000 passing yards with 50 touchdowns. 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