--- title: 2026 Italian Grand Prix Odds: Norris Favored, Antonelli Penalized description: See the 2026 Italian Grand Prix odds as Lando Norris leads the market and championship leader Kimi Antonelli prepares to start from the back at Monza. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/italy-s-60-year-wait-drives-a-mercedes/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-09-03T22:59:40.467Z article:modified_time: 2026-09-03T22:59:33.495Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: 2026 Italian Grand Prix Odds: Norris Favored, Antonelli Penalized og:description: See the 2026 Italian Grand Prix odds as Lando Norris leads the market and championship leader Kimi Antonelli prepares to start from the back at Monza. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/italy-s-60-year-wait-drives-a-mercedes/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt800300f0dea966b1/6a99bde86ccd607f1dd6032d/GettyImages-2233946106.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2233946106.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: 2026 Italian Grand Prix Odds: Norris Favored, Antonelli Penalized twitter:description: See the 2026 Italian Grand Prix odds as Lando Norris leads the market and championship leader Kimi Antonelli prepares to start from the back at Monza. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt800300f0dea966b1/6a99bde86ccd607f1dd6032d/GettyImages-2233946106.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # Italy's 60-Year Wait Drives a Mercedes > Sponsored content. 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They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Sep 3, 2026 10:59 PM UTC  Tifosi attend the Monza GP during the free practice of the Formula 1 Pirelli Gran Premio d'Italia 2025 in Monza, Italy, on September 7, 2025. Tifosi attend the Monza GP during the free practice of the Formula 1 Pirelli Gran Premio d'Italia 2025 in Monza, Italy, on September 7, 2025.Alessio Morgese—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Sep 3, 2026 10:59 PM UTC Ferrari did not invent its iconic red to sell sports cars. Rosso corsa—racing red—was assigned to Italy more than a century ago, back when cars were required to race in designated national colors. [Ferrari was born red](https://www.ferrarifl.com/blog/why-are-ferraris-red/). Then Formula One discovered sponsorship money. Lotus traded Britain's racing green for the red, white, and gold of [Gold Leaf cigarettes](https://sportscardigest.com/gold-leaf-team-lotus-the-deal-and-the-first-glory/) in 1968\. National paint was wiped off the grid in favor of corporate liveries. But Ferrari kept painting its cars red. At the Italian Grand Prix, the tifosi—Ferrari diehards—paint the Monza grandstands red. The race has been part of every F1 season since the world championship began in 1950, giving Ferrari one of the sport's oldest home-race traditions. And though Ferrari has won the Italian Grand Prix 20 times, the host country has waited 60 years to see an Italian driver win it. Italy finally has its driver. He drives a Mercedes. [Kimi Antonelli](https://time.com/collection/time100-sports/2026/kimi-antonelli/) has won half of the season's races and leads the [2026 F1 Drivers' Championship standings](https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/drivers) by 59 points. The Bologna native arrives at Monza looking like the answer to a drought that stretches back to 1966\. Instead, he will race before a home crowd dressed for his defeat. The tifosi are not his only problem. A Mercedes decision has reshaped Sunday's race, pushing Antonelli out of pole position in the betting market and opening a lane for the field—including one driver who could make history in Ferrari red. ## Italian Grand Prix Odds Here are the [2026 Italian Grand Prix odds](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxf1race/f1-race/kxf1race-itagp26), per Kalshi.  Antonelli has just a 7% implied probability of winning his home race. Blame Mercedes' calculations. As team principal Toto Wolff put it, "[algorithms don't take nationality into consideration](https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/wolff-explains-decision-behind-monza-engine-penalty-for-antonelli.2kQ3tVnHJXRsloH0lmlh9I.2kQ3tVnHJXRsloH0lmlh9I?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com)." Antonelli won five straight races, from the Chinese Grand Prix through the Monaco Grand Prix, and has finished in the top three in 10 of 12 races this season. At 20, he is the youngest-ever world championship leader. Now he'll have to defend that lead while starting from the back of the grid. F1 limits how many power-unit components each driver can use over a season. Mercedes has already exhausted Antonelli's allocation and will install a new engine ahead of Monza, triggering a [grid penalty](https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/wolff-explains-decision-behind-monza-engine-penalty-for-antonelli.2kQ3tVnHJXRsloH0lmlh9I.2kQ3tVnHJXRsloH0lmlh9I?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com). Wolff explained that the "[calculations](https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/wolff-explains-decision-behind-monza-engine-penalty-for-antonelli.2kQ3tVnHJXRsloH0lmlh9I.2kQ3tVnHJXRsloH0lmlh9I?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com)" suggest Monza is the best track to take the penalty at, with the "[Temple of Speed](https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/circuit-guide-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-autodromo-nazionale-monza.51PKqBRlxNs0fzLWQzsnd0)" offering long straights and more opportunities to pass than most circuits. [Antonelli's win probability fell from 27% to 6% on Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/f1-italian-grand-prix-winner-2026-09-06) after the decision was announced, clearing a lane for the driver who carries two straight wins into Sunday. [Lando Norris](https://time.com/collection/100-most-influential-people/2026/lando-norris/) is favored to win his first Italian Grand Prix at 32%. Norris finished outside the top 17 in three of his first six races before finding his footing, winning back-to-back races at Hungary and the Netherlands. The next-best-positioned to capitalize on Antonelli's handicap is his Mercedes teammate George Russell, who sits second in the Drivers' Championship and carries a 27% implied win probability into Sunday. Then come Ferrari's drivers: Charles Leclerc and [Lewis Hamilton](https://time.com/7261784/lewis-hamilton-ferrari-f1-interview/), who combine for a 25% probability of sending the tifosi home happy. Leclerc has managed just two top-two finishes this season but tends to find another gear at Monza, where he won for Ferrari in 2019 and 2024\. Hamilton has made a career out of it: his [five Italian Grand Prix wins are tied with Michael Schumacher](https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2026/sep/03/lewis-hamilton-targets-phenomenal-italian-grand-prix-victory-with-ferrari) for the all-time record. Hamilton could break the record for Italian Grand Prix wins in Ferrari red. Antonelli could end a 60-year drought. For the tifosi, perhaps a compromise: anyone but Norris. Or Russell. The market says Norris. Then Russell. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: What Prediction Markets Say About Every NFC Division](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nfc-s-divisions-dont-add-up/)  ### What Prediction Markets Say About Every NFC Division [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nfc-s-divisions-dont-add-up/) [Open article: What Prediction Markets Say About Every AFC Division](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-afc-has-new-division-champions-and-the-same-old-favorites/)  ### What Prediction Markets Say About Every AFC Division [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-afc-has-new-division-champions-and-the-same-old-favorites/) [Open article: College Football National Championship Odds](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/college-football-moves-the-goalposts-again/)  ### College Football National Championship Odds [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/college-football-moves-the-goalposts-again/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/italy-s-60-year-wait-drives-a-mercedes/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/italy-s-60-year-wait-drives-a-mercedes/"},"headline":"Italy's 60-Year Wait Drives a Mercedes","datePublished":"2026-09-03T22:59:40.467Z","dateModified":"2026-09-03T22:59:33.495Z","description":"Kimi Antonelli could become the first Italian to win at Monza since 1966, but a Mercedes grid penalty has pushed the championship leader down the odds.","url":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/italy-s-60-year-wait-drives-a-mercedes/","keywords":[],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt800300f0dea966b1/6a99bde86ccd607f1dd6032d/GettyImages-2233946106.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Annie Nader","jobTitle":"Prediction Markets Analyst","url":"https://time.com/author/annie-nader/"}],"articleSection":"Prediction Markets","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt800300f0dea966b1/6a99bde86ccd607f1dd6032d/GettyImages-2233946106.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"GettyImages-2233946106.jpg","caption":"","creditText":"Alessio Morgese—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/italy-s-60-year-wait-drives-a-mercedes/","name":"Italy's 60-Year Wait Drives a Mercedes"}}]}] ```