--- title: How the 2026 World Cup Broke Prediction Market Records description: Kalshi and Polymarket generated more than $6.2 billion in combined trading volume on their 2026 World Cup winner markets alone, setting prediction-market records as the favorites largely delivered. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-the-world-cup-broke-prediction-market-records/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-07-20T18:29:06.704Z article:modified_time: 2026-07-20T18:27:14.326Z og:title: How the 2026 World Cup Broke Prediction Market Records og:description: Kalshi and Polymarket generated more than $6.2 billion in combined trading volume on their 2026 World Cup winner markets alone, setting prediction-market records as the favorites largely delivered. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-the-world-cup-broke-prediction-market-records/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt3f3c87ee104e0b25/6a5e24faf8abd7dd484d751d/GettyImages-2286162754.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 675 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2286162754.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: How the 2026 World Cup Broke Prediction Market Records twitter:description: Kalshi and Polymarket generated more than $6.2 billion in combined trading volume on their 2026 World Cup winner markets alone, setting prediction-market records as the favorites largely delivered. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt3f3c87ee104e0b25/6a5e24faf8abd7dd484d751d/GettyImages-2286162754.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # How the World Cup Broke Prediction Market Records by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Jul 20, 2026 6:29 PM UTC  The Spanish and Argentine flags are displayed on the pitch ahead of the 2026 World Cup football tournament final match between Spain and Argentina at the New York/New Jersey Stadium in East Rutherford on July 19, 2026. The Spanish and Argentine flags are displayed on the pitch ahead of the 2026 World Cup football tournament final match between Spain and Argentina at the New York/New Jersey Stadium in East Rutherford on July 19, 2026.Mauro Pimentel—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Jul 20, 2026 6:29 PM UTC The ending was for sale around the pitch. As Spain and Argentina chased soccer's greatest prize, prediction-market advertisements pulsed across the LED boards lining the field. An estimated [1.8 billion people](https://www.si.com/soccer/how-many-people-watch-soccer-world-cup-final) watched as [Ferran Torres' extra-time strike](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k37GHIYMZXQ) made Spain the 2026 World Cup champion—a goal that settled the question at the center of more than $6 billion in trading. When FIFA expanded the World Cup from 32 to 48 teams, it widened the field for nations such as Cape Verde and Scotland to participate—and the tournament was richer for it. Cape Verde was the tournament's defining underdog story. Representing a nation of roughly 525,000 people, the World Cup debutant became the [smallest country to reach the knockout stage](https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/%5F/id/49192570/cape-verde-w2026-world-cup-knockout-stage-smallest-nation), held eventual champion Spain scoreless, and may now reap a [tourism boost](https://www.nbcnews.com/video/shorts/will-cape-verde-see-a-post-world-cup-tourism-boost-266862149888) from its historic run. Scotland made less noise on the pitch but plenty beyond it. During the team's stop in Boston, more than [50,000 Tartan Army supporters](https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026/articles/scotland-fans-boston-bond) filled the streets with bagpipes. Boston and Glasgow forged a "[sisterhood of the traveling traffic cone](https://www.theguardian.com/football/2026/jul/14/world-cup-traffic-cone-scotland-boston)" connection, then made the friendship official with a civic bond that will outlast the tournament: [a sister-city partnership](https://www.boston.gov/news/mayor-michelle-wu-signs-formal-declaration-intent-establish-partnership-glasgow-scotland). But expansion did not just give the World Cup more stories. It gave prediction markets more matches to trade. [According to Chad Beynon](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/18/business/world-cup-kalshi-polymarket.html), a gaming and lodging analyst at Macquarie Group, the performance of prediction markets during the World Cup "[surpassed every estimate that any of us have projected](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/18/business/world-cup-kalshi-polymarket.html)." The final numbers reveal a tournament that shattered even the most bullish forecasts, with historic trading volume attached to a largely predictable World Cup. ## World Cup Breaks Prediction Market Records  [Kalshi says it added three million new customers](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/19/kalshi-adds-3-million-new-users-as-company-capitalizes-on-world-cup.html) over the course of the World Cup. Its tournament-winner market closed with nearly [$1.9 billion in trading volume](https://kalshi.com/browse?order%5Fby=event-volume&status=all), more than tripling the platform's previous record of $535 million set by the 2024 U.S. presidential election market. With 104 matches spread across five weeks, the trading boom extended well beyond the tournament-winner market: 62 World Cup-related markets on Kalshi exceeded $50 million in trading volume. The tournament now accounts for 97 of the 200 highest-volume markets in Kalshi's history.  Polymarket's broader international reach pushed its tournament-winner market to [$4.3 billion in trading volume](https://polymarket.com/event/world-cup-winner). Somehow, only the identity of the world champion proved more compelling than Cristiano Ronaldo's tear ducts: the platform's second-largest World Cup market was an [$89 million proposition](https://polymarket.com/event/will-ronaldo-cry-at-the-world-cup-20260604013616610) on whether Ronaldo would cry. He did. The Ronaldo market showed how granular the trading became. The title market showed how widely hope was distributed. Spain entered as the favorite to win the World Cup, with a 16.4% implied probability on Polymarket and +450 odds at [sportsbooks](https://sports.yahoo.com/soccer/betting/article/2026-world-cup-betting-odds-for-all-48-teams-to-win-the-title-145427136.html). [Across the previous 15 tournaments](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-world-cup-s-billion-dollar-belief-machine/), the eventual champion had, on average, roughly +585 odds heading into the tournament. No team with a pre-tournament implied win probability below 8% had won the World Cup since Italy in 1982\. By that historical benchmark, only six nations opened with the kind of pre-tournament [probability typically associated with a World Cup champion](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-world-cup-s-billion-dollar-belief-machine/): Spain, France, England, Portugal, Brazil, and Argentina. Yet only about $761 million traded across those six nations on Polymarket, while the rest of the field attracted more than $3 billion. History suggested the vast majority of those teams were never realistic contenders, but a broader World Cup invited a broader field of belief. Forty-eight countries arrived with supporters willing to believe—and bet—that history might finally break in their favor. [H2 Gambling Capital estimates](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/prediction-markets-swell-27-sports-133000077.html) prediction-market activity made up 27% of all legal U.S. sports betting volume during the World Cup, up from about 9% at the beginning of 2026\. The results of the tournament were largely predictable, but the growth around them was not. And another expansion could be coming. [FIFA President Gianni Infantino has said](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/fifa-explore-expanding-world-cup-224958859.html) FIFA will consider expanding the field from 48 to 64 teams ahead of the 2030 tournament. Prediction markets are already pricing the possibilities: [odds for the 2030 World Cup](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxwc/world-cup/kxwc-30) are live. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: The Rumor That Repriced the Bond Market](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-rumor-that-repriced-the-bond-market/)  ### The Rumor That Repriced the Bond Market [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-rumor-that-repriced-the-bond-market/) [Open article: Can the Market Scoop Marvel?](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/can-the-market-scoop-marvel/)  ### Can the Market Scoop Marvel? 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[READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/fantasy-football-qb-rankings-when-to-pass/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-the-world-cup-broke-prediction-market-records/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-the-world-cup-broke-prediction-market-records/"},"headline":"How the World Cup Broke Prediction Market Records","datePublished":"2026-07-20T18:29:06.704Z","dateModified":"2026-07-20T18:27:14.326Z","description":"The expanded World Cup brought prediction markets millions of new customers and unprecedented activity. 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