--- title: 2026 NFL Playoff Odds: Biggest Changes From Preseason to Week 5 description: See which NFL teams' playoff odds have changed the most from the preseason to entering Week 5, including the biggest risers and fallers. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-four-weeks-reshaped-the-nfl-playoff-picture/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-10-05T23:04:32.505Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-05T23:04:21.695Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: 2026 NFL Playoff Odds: Biggest Changes From Preseason to Week 5 og:description: See which NFL teams' playoff odds have changed the most from the preseason to entering Week 5, including the biggest risers and fallers. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-four-weeks-reshaped-the-nfl-playoff-picture/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltfd5c2fd22a13b3a7/6ac3d2246f75d5392d815505/GettyImages-2298598693.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2298598693.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: 2026 NFL Playoff Odds: Biggest Changes From Preseason to Week 5 twitter:description: See which NFL teams' playoff odds have changed the most from the preseason to entering Week 5, including the biggest risers and fallers. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltfd5c2fd22a13b3a7/6ac3d2246f75d5392d815505/GettyImages-2298598693.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # For These NFL Teams, It's Not Early Anymore > Sponsored content. 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Its journalism is reported and edited by a professional newsroom led by Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs, with named correspondents on politics, climate, health, technology and culture. It reaches 1 million US print subscribers and 1.15 million globally, plus more than 1.1 million newsletter readers. #### How do I subscribe to TIME magazine? Subscriptions are at time.com/subscribe-agent. Choose digital only at $20 a year, or print and digital from $29 a year or $49 for two years. TIME also publishes seven free email newsletters at time.com/newsletters, which do not require a subscription. #### Can I cancel a TIME subscription? Yes. TIME states that subscriptions can be cancelled at any time. #### Does TIME have free newsletters? Yes. TIME publishes seven free email newsletters reaching more than 1.1 million readers, covering daily news, Washington politics, health, AI, climate and energy, culture, and the newsroom itself. They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-sub-2026q3/newsletters?i=8d6581f6-ca0f-4ec5-80cf-334c9717051b&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) * TIME Subscriptions: [time.com/subscribe-agent](/c/time-sub-2026q3/subscribe?i=8d6581f6-ca0f-4ec5-80cf-334c9717051b&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Oct 5, 2026 11:04 PM UTC  Justin Herbert #10 of the Los Angeles Chargers reacts against the Seattle Seahawks during the third quarter at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington on October 4, 2026. Justin Herbert #10 of the Los Angeles Chargers reacts against the Seattle Seahawks during the third quarter at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington on October 4, 2026. Steph Chambers—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Oct 5, 2026 11:04 PM UTC On Sunday, the New York Jets celebrated a positive stretch from running back Braelon Allen with a tweet: "4 straight plays, 26 yards," punctuated with the flexed-bicep emoji. The Jets were well on their way to being outgained 492-157, the franchise's [second-worst yardage differential in 40 years](https://jetsxfactor.com/2026/10/05/ny-jets-reality-finally-set-in/), by the time the post went up. > [](https://twitter.com/nyjets/status/2106818042491732182?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2106818042491732182%7Ctwgr%5E9c668c6e91805b2049760f59ba11034c8b9cd91a%7Ctwcon%5Es1%5F&ref%5Furl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.profootballnetwork.com%2Fjets-loss-reaction-bears-week-4-2026%2F%3Futm%5Fmedium%3Drssutm%5Fsource%3Dnordot) Football Twitter finally has its answer to "[Chris Paul hits a huge three to cut the lead down to 42.](https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/chris-paul-hits-a-huge-3-to-cut-the-lead-to-42)" The now-viral Jets post has been mercilessly [roasted](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/week-4-super-bowl-no-024414365.html) online, mostly because of how painfully earnest it was. Geno Smith and Co. had gained 34 total yards in the first half. Four plays for 26 yards was truly grounds for celebration. NFL fans love to pair that kind of selective optimism with football's favorite three-word excuse: _It's still early_. At a certain point, though, citing the calendar is more denial than perspective. Five teams have started the season 0-4, [tied for the most in NFL history](https://fantasy-www.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-4-sunday-aftermath-bears-defense-continues-to-shine-jaguars-are-for-real). The Jets are not one of those winless teams (shout out). But across the league, 20 of 32 teams have seen their playoff probability move at least 10 percentage points in either direction since the preseason. That includes an undefeated team that cannot buy a touchdown and two winless would-be contenders whose best source of hope is a comeback that dates back to 1992\. ### NFL Playoff Picture: Stock Up Below are each team's implied probability of making the NFL playoffs before the season and entering Week 5, per [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflplayoff/pro-football-playoff-qualifiers/kxnflplayoff-27). Parentheses show the percentage-point change_._ * **Jaguars**: 50% to 81% **(+31)** * **Vikings**: 40% to 69% **(+29)** * **49ers**: 54% to 83% **(+29)** * **Chiefs**: 61% to 89% **(+28)** * **Bills**: 73% to 92% **(+19)** * **Browns**: 12% to 30% **(+18)** * **Raiders**: 15% to 32% **(+17)** * **Panthers**: 27% to 40% **(+13)** * **Ravens**: 72% to 82% **(+10)** * **Bears**: 50% to 60% **(+10)** * **Saints**: 35% to 45% **(+10)** The Jacksonville Jaguars beat the New England Patriots by 29 points in Week 3 and forced Drake Maye into three turnovers. It was one of those early-season blowouts where you wondered if it said more about how good the Jaguars are or how bad the Patriots are. Well, Maye threw for three touchdowns and handed the Buffalo Bills their first loss of the season in Week 4\. The Jaguars might just be that good. The three teams the Jaguars have beaten are a combined 7-2 against everyone else, and Trevor Lawrence is tied for sixth with Patrick Mahomes in [expected points added per drop back](https://www.nfeloapp.com/qb-rankings/) among eligible quarterbacks. Jacksonville ended last regular season on an eight-game winning streak but still entered this one as just a coin flip to play into January. They now have the fifth-best playoff probability at 81%, along with a 64% chance of winning the AFC South. The next-best playoff mover is an undefeated group that's averaging the second-fewest yards per game. You didn't read that wrong. Just how suffocating is [Brian Flores' defense](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7615818/2026/09/20/vikings-bears-brian-flores-caleb-williams/): the Minnesota Vikings are 2-0 when they don't score a touchdown. You didn't read that wrong, either. The Vikings won 15-10 over the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. All 15 points came from Will Reichard's boot. [Minnesota is now the first team in more than a century](https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/vikings-are-third-team-start-4-0-while-not-scoring-a-td-in-multiple-games) to start the season 4-0 without sniffing the end zone in two of those contests. Flores has helped the Vikings limit opponents to fewer than 20 points per game in each of his past two seasons as defensive coordinator. Opponents are averaging 12.8 points against the Vikings this season. That includes a Chicago Bears offense that scored three points against Minnesota while averaging 33.3 points elsewhere. The Vikings are one of just three remaining undefeated teams, along with the next two biggest playoff movers: the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers. The Chiefs' chances of making the playoffs have climbed from 61% to 89% since the start of the season. The 49ers' chances have climbed from 54% to 83%. Both teams were expected to make the playoffs this season, but with Mahomes coming off an ACL injury and the 49ers coming off a whole slew of them, the market was cautious. Now the Bills are the only group with more favorable playoff chances than the Chiefs or 49ers. 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy's [Mr. Irrelevant](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/%5F/id/39893871/mr-irrelevant-underdog-nfl-draft-brock-purdy) label gets too much attention. His status as one of the league's most underrated quarterbacks doesn't get enough. Purdy has thrown for 11 touchdowns and one interception through four games and leads all signal-callers with 0.64 expected points added per drop back—nearly double Dak Prescott's second-best mark of 0.34\. Purdy is now tied with Josh Allen at 20% in Kalshi's [MVP market](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflmvp/ap-pro-football-regular-season-mvp/kxnflmvp-27). The only player who has thrown as many touchdown passes as Purdy: Kirk Cousins. Cousins and the Las Vegas Raiders have safely been the biggest surprise this season. The Raiders had the second-highest chance to finish with the [worst record in the league](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrecordnflworst/worst-football-record/kxrecordnflworst-27) and have since become one of just 10 teams to win at least three games. The market is still pricing them like the [2025 Indianapolis Colts](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/schedule/%5F/name/ind/season/2025), giving the Raiders a 32% chance of reaching the postseason. Even if the hot start proves unsustainable, the Raiders have already done their part to bury an AFC West rival. ### NFL Playoff Picture: Stock Down Below are each team's implied probability of making the NFL playoffs before the season and entering Week 5, per [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflplayoff/pro-football-playoff-qualifiers/kxnflplayoff-27). Parentheses show the percentage-point change_._ * **Chargers**: 60% to 11% **(-49)** * **Buccaneers**: 45% to 8% **(-37)** * **Texans**: 65% to 31% **(-34)** * **Packers**: 54% to 28% **(-26)** * **Steelers**: 43% to 25% **(-18)** * **Lions**: 67% to 53% **(-14)** * **Commanders**: 27% to 13% **(-14)** * **Titans**: 18% to 6% **(-12)** * **Rams**: 80% to 70% **(-10)** The Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans were supposed to break through in 2026\. They entered with the best and second-best odds of winning the [Super Bowl](https://www.covers.com/sportsoddshistory/nfl-main/?y=2026&sa=nfl&a=sb&p=pre) among teams that have not reached a conference championship game in the past three seasons. Four weeks and four losses in, history suggests that both sides are all but done. Only one team in NFL history that started the season 0-4 went on to make the playoffs: [the 1992 San Diego Chargers](https://www.espn.com/nfl/recap?gameId=401872977). Maybe the Chargers can take comfort knowing the only historical precedent belongs to their franchise. But the upcoming schedule is not one for comfort. Los Angeles' next three games are against the Broncos, Chiefs, and Rams, and two of them are on the road. There's a legitimate chance the Chargers start the season 0-7\. The high preseason expectations were not just team-wide. Justin Herbert entered his seventh campaign with the fourth-best [odds of winning MVP](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nfl-mvp-race-starts-and-ends-under-center/). He has since posted the fourth-worst expected points added per drop back mark among eligible quarterbacks. And as for that [Texans defense](https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-s-top-10-defenses-in-2026-texans-seahawks-rams-headline-ranking-don-t-sleep-on-jags-bucs) we were meant to have nightmares about: CeeDee Lamb caught 17 of his 21 targets for 189 yards in Sunday's win over Houston. Lamb became just the [ninth player in league history](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/most-catches-nfl-game-ceedee-204656707.html) to record 17 or more receptions in a single game. How's that for coverage. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' playoff odds have dropped from 45% to 8% following an 0-4 start, though the record is easier to forgive with Baker Mayfield sidelined and undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels under center. There are 13 games left in the regular season. The Chargers and Texans can technically say it's still early. Then again, four plays for 26 yards was technically forward progress—and even the Jets are in the win column. ## --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: Why Certain NFL Games Dominate Prediction Markets](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nfl-games-dominating-prediction-markets/)  ### Why Certain NFL Games Dominate Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nfl-games-dominating-prediction-markets/) [Open article: Nathan Fielder's Elizabeth Holmes Documentary Could Make Oscar History](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/nathan-fielder-s-elizabeth-holmes-documentary-could-make-oscar-history/)  ### Nathan Fielder's Elizabeth Holmes Documentary Could Make Oscar History [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/nathan-fielder-s-elizabeth-holmes-documentary-could-make-oscar-history/) [Open article: The Big Brother Decision That Could Cost $750,000](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/big-brother-finale/)  ### The Big Brother Decision That Could Cost $750,000 [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/big-brother-finale/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-four-weeks-reshaped-the-nfl-playoff-picture/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-four-weeks-reshaped-the-nfl-playoff-picture/"},"headline":"For These NFL Teams, It's Not Early Anymore","datePublished":"2026-10-05T23:04:32.505Z","dateModified":"2026-10-05T23:04:21.695Z","description":"Four weeks into the season, 20 of 32 teams have seen their playoff odds move by at least 10 percentage points. 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