--- description: Boston's 15-game win streak reshaped MLB playoff odds, drove betting interest, and changed the Red Sox's trade-deadline outlook. title: MLB Playoff Odds: Red Sox Win Streak Sends Playoff Odds From 9% to 64% image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt9741038c8945947f/6a6226d2feea4713744361d0/GettyImages-2286663941.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # How 15 Straight Wins Repriced the Red Sox by [Annie Nader](/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Jul 23, 2026 9:57 PM CUT  Wally the Green Monster celebrates the historic win streak. The Boston Red Sox played the Baltimore Orioles in the first game of a doubleheader at Fenway Park on July 22, 2026. Wally the Green Monster celebrates the historic win streak. The Boston Red Sox played the Baltimore Orioles in the first game of a doubleheader at Fenway Park on July 22, 2026.Danielle Parhizkaran—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Jul 23, 2026 9:57 PM CUT Last place in the American League. Alex Cora and five members of his coaching staff, pink-slipped. "[Sell the team](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WysINMCwN40 "undefined")" chants echoing through Fenway Park. The Boston Red Sox were down to their last strike. Then they won 15 straight games—a run that, in the simplest toss-up model, would happen just once in 32,768 tries. It took the nightcap of Wednesday's doubleheader against the Orioles to end the streak. By then, the Red Sox had [tied a franchise record](https://www.mlb.com/news/red-sox-win-15th-straight-game "undefined") old enough to remember Ted Williams coming home from World War II. The 2026 Red Sox became just the eighth team to win 15 or more straight games in the [expansion era](https://www.mlb.com/news/baseball-s-longest-win-streaks-c268160952 "undefined"), which dates to 1961\. But the other seven teams were, on average, 10 games above .500 when their streak began. Even the Moneyball A's, whose 20-game win streak earned them the Brad Pitt treatment and six Oscar nominations, had a 68-51 record before their run began. These were good teams catching fire. Boston opened July with a 37-48 record, making [history](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-15-straight-wins-repriced-the-red-sox/ "undefined") for the wrong reasons—pure [headline fodder](https://www.outkick.com/sports/boston-red-sox-pathetic-disgusting-disgraceful-baseball-team "undefined") for doom-and-gloom beat reporters. Boston's win streak became one of the biggest market-moving events of the MLB season, reshaping playoff odds, attracting new betting interest, and maybe even sparing a few players from learning the rental market in a new city. ## Markets Rally Behind the Red Sox From June 25 to July 23, the [Red Sox's implied chance to make the playoffs](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmlbplayoffs/pro-baseball-playoff-qualifiers/kxmlbplayoffs-26 "undefined") rallied from 9% to 64%.  A 55-percentage-point repricing in a million-dollar market is seismic, and the move is not confined to prediction markets: the Red Sox have -194 [playoff odds](https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/navigation/mlb?tab=playoffs "undefined") on FanDuel Sportsbook, which translates to a 66% implied probability. The [betting data](https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2026/07/22/red-sox-vs-orioles-game-2-betting-splits-for-wednesday-july-22/ "undefined") suggest the streak was not just changing Boston's playoff odds, but also driving people to the window. In Wednesday night's game against the Orioles, the Red Sox drew 91% of moneyline bets, but only 35% of the moneyline handle on [DraftKings](https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2026/07/22/red-sox-vs-orioles-game-2-betting-splits-for-wednesday-july-22/ "undefined"). In other words, the sharp, concentrated money was on the Orioles, but a massive, small-dollar crowd supported the Red Sox. That marked the fifth straight game in which at least 84% of moneyline bets were on Boston. More than reviving October hopes, the streak may have turned trade chips back into teammates.  On June 30, the Red Sox were camped out in the AL East cellar, last in MLB in home runs, and had already lost Garrett Crochet, last season's MLB strikeout leader, to the injured list. That is how [trade-deadline sellers](https://sports.yahoo.com/videos/mlb-trade-deadline-red-sox-173211570.html "undefined") are born. Pitchers Sonny Gray and Aroldis Chapman were both [favored to be traded](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmlbtrade/pro-baseball-trades/kxmlbtrade-26aug05 "undefined"), with the market pricing Gray at 64% and Chapman at 78%. By July 5—the same day ace Ranger Suarez hit the injured list—Chapman's trade odds shot to 99%. Call off the fire sale: Gray's and Chapman's trade odds have dropped to 9% and 15%, respectively. When the streak finally died Wednesday night, interim manager Chad Tracy walked into the clubhouse to address his team, only to find Gray already doing so. The pitcher the market had all but shipped out of town in June was telling his teammates to "[believe that that's who we are.](https://www.bostonherald.com/2026/07/22/red-sox-veterans-give-teammates-pep-talk-after-15-game-win-streak-ends/ "undefined")" After 15 straight wins, the market finally did. Nobody's selling now. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: The Odyssey Conquers the Box Office](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-odyssey-sails-toward-box-office-history/)  ### The Odyssey Conquers the Box Office [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-odyssey-sails-toward-box-office-history/) [Open article: Golf Majors Have Become Chalk or Shock](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/golf-majors-have-become-chalk-or-shock/)  ### Golf Majors Have Become Chalk or Shock [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/golf-majors-have-become-chalk-or-shock/) [Open article: Inside the $6 Billion Trade on the World Cup Champion](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-the-world-cup-broke-prediction-market-records/)  ### Inside the $6 Billion Trade on the World Cup Champion [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-the-world-cup-broke-prediction-market-records/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-15-straight-wins-repriced-the-red-sox/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-15-straight-wins-repriced-the-red-sox/"},"headline":"How 15 Straight Wins Repriced the Red Sox","datePublished":"2026-07-23T21:57:41.546Z","dateModified":"2026-07-23T21:57:31.556Z","description":"The Red Sox won 15 straight games, sending their playoff odds from 9% to 64% and flipping Boston from trade-deadline seller to buyer overnight.","url":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-15-straight-wins-repriced-the-red-sox/","keywords":[],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt9741038c8945947f/6a6226d2feea4713744361d0/GettyImages-2286663941.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Annie Nader","jobTitle":"Prediction Markets Analyst","url":"https://time.com/author/annie-nader/"}],"articleSection":"","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt9741038c8945947f/6a6226d2feea4713744361d0/GettyImages-2286663941.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"GettyImages-2286663941.jpg","caption":"","creditText":"Danielle Parhizkaran—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-15-straight-wins-repriced-the-red-sox/","name":"How 15 Straight Wins Repriced the Red Sox"}}]}] ```