--- description: Ryan Fox's Open Championship win capped a run of historic upsets. Inside golf's run of long-shot major winners, why the Masters is the exception, and what's driving the upsets. title: Ryan Fox and the Rise of Long-Shot Winners in Men's Golf Majors image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltdf9b539ed873e045/6a5e7cbff8abd75bc04d7ee3/GettyImages-2286858867.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # Golf Majors Have Become Chalk or Shock by [Annie Nader](/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Jul 21, 2026 9:58 PM CUT  Ryan Fox of New Zealand poses with the Claret Jug on the 18th green after winning The 154th Open Championship at Royal Birkdale in Southport, England on July 19, 2026. Ryan Fox of New Zealand poses with the Claret Jug on the 18th green after winning The 154th Open Championship at Royal Birkdale in Southport, England on July 19, 2026.Richard Heathcote—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Jul 21, 2026 9:58 PM CUT Ryan Fox [promised](https://golf.com/news/ryan-fox-emotional-phone-call-family-after-open-win/?srsltid=AfmBOorpUsNMdxLd80khUWp0%5F%5FYiCn9-54FhjIyHvrx37ilaMonrUMXq "undefined") his kids a trophy. Eight shots back at 500-to-1 odds entering the third round of the Open Championship, he looked one souvenir-shop stop away from keeping his word. Instead, he brought home the Claret Jug—and staged the [largest 36-hole comeback](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/ryan-fox-makes-history-breaks-203000644.html "undefined") in men's major championship history. A 62 is the [lowest round ever shot](https://www.livgolf.com/news/lucas-herbert-ties-record-lowest-round-major-history-62-royal-birkdale-the-open-2026 "undefined") at a men's major. It's happened just eight times in the history of the sport. Three did it this weekend—including Fox, whose [record-tying third-round](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJb7TP18-Dc "undefined") showing vaulted him from T52 to T2 on the Royal Birkdale leaderboard. Riding the hot hand into Sunday, Fox birdied four holes on the back nine to win his first major.  Fox entered the Open Championship with [+22500 odds](https://www.covers.com/sportsoddshistory/golf-champs/#PGAChampionship "undefined"). After 36 holes, his odds lengthened to +50000, and [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpgatour/pga-tour/kxpgatour-thoc26 "undefined") listed him at a 0.1% implied win probability—the market's way of acknowledging that he had, technically, made the cut. No major champion had ever entered the third round with longer odds since the books started keeping track. Calling it improbable feels a club short. Yet somehow, it's become par for the course: two of the longest shots in golf history were crowned during this season's majors alone. So, which majors are ripe for an upset, and what's driving golf's run of underdogs? ## Major Golf Has Lost the Middle [Scottie Scheffler](https://time.com/collection/100-most-influential-people/2026/scottie-scheffler/ "undefined"), [Rory McIlroy](https://time.com/collection/time100-sports/2026/rory-mcilroy/ "undefined"), and Xander Schauffele have combined to win 7 of the past 14 majors. But when the game's biggest names haven't had a firm grip, chaos has: the other seven champions entered at average odds of roughly +6825, about a 1.4% probability. Three of the past six majors have delivered some of the biggest long-shot winners on record: [J.J. Spaun](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6430456/2025/06/17/jj-spaun-us-open-win-long-shot-odds/ "undefined") at +15000 odds in the 2025 U.S. Open, Aaron Rai at +20000 in the 2026 PGA Championship, and Fox at +22500 in the 2026 Open Championship. Odds vary by book. DraftKings Sportsbook listed [Rai as long as +29000 before the PGA Championship](https://www.espn.com/golf/story/%5F/id/48800855/aaron-rai-biggest-long-shot-major-winner-least-20-years "undefined"). But even by the shortest line, golf has minted three of the most improbable champions across six majors. According to data from [Sports Odds History](https://www.covers.com/sportsoddshistory/golf-champs/#PGAChampionship "undefined")—which dates back to at least 1985 for each major—only two previous champions with [listed odds](https://www.theopen.com/previous-opens/132nd-open-royal-st-georges-2003 "undefined") entered at +20000 or longer: Louis Oosthuizen at +20000 in the 2010 Open Championship and Phil Mickelson at +25000 in the 2021 PGA Championship. [The Masters](https://www.masters.com/index.html "undefined") has stayed untouched by golf's recent run of upsets, and the elements that keep long shots out may be what's letting them run wild elsewhere. Augusta typically features a field of around 90 players, while the other three majors invite up to 156 players. A bigger field means longer odds on each individual player. Over the last five years, Masters champions entered at average odds of roughly +880, while winners of the other three majors averaged about +1900\. The course only sharpens the edge. The Masters returns to Augusta National every spring, allowing elite players to accumulate years of course knowledge. The other three majors have more variables at play—deeper fields, rotating venues, unfamiliar conditions—but that has always been the case. What changed is not the average price of their champions, but the kinds of winners those variables are producing. From 2015 to 2020, non-Masters major champions entered at average odds of roughly +2000\. From 2021 to 2026, that number actually dipped to around +1900\. But only one winner in that first stretch entered at longer than +8000\. Five did in the second. Golf's middle class is disappearing. In this new era of chalk or shock, Fox may not be the last long shot to make good on a promise nobody else believed in. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: The Odyssey Conquers the Box Office](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-odyssey-sails-toward-box-office-history/)  ### The Odyssey Conquers the Box Office [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-odyssey-sails-toward-box-office-history/) [Open article: Inside the $6 Billion Trade on the World Cup Champion](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-the-world-cup-broke-prediction-market-records/)  ### Inside the $6 Billion Trade on the World Cup Champion [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-the-world-cup-broke-prediction-market-records/) [Open article: World Cup Final Preview: Spain vs. Argentina](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/spain-and-argentina-get-the-final-word/)  ### World Cup Final Preview: Spain vs. Argentina [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/spain-and-argentina-get-the-final-word/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/golf-majors-have-become-chalk-or-shock/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/golf-majors-have-become-chalk-or-shock/"},"headline":"Golf Majors Have Become Chalk or Shock","datePublished":"2026-07-21T21:58:34.084Z","dateModified":"2026-07-21T21:58:23.831Z","description":"Ryan Fox's improbable Open Championship victory was no isolated shock. 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