--- title: Heisman Trophy Odds: Why Trinidad Chambliss is the New Favorite description: Trinidad Chambliss's 2026 Heisman odds jumped from 6% to 29% after Ole Miss beat LSU. See how his odds compare with Darian Mensah, Arch Manning, and the other top contenders. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/from-division-backup-to-heisman-favorite/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-09-21T20:10:29.042Z article:modified_time: 2026-09-21T20:10:12.078Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: Heisman Trophy Odds: Why Trinidad Chambliss is the New Favorite og:description: Trinidad Chambliss's 2026 Heisman odds jumped from 6% to 29% after Ole Miss beat LSU. See how his odds compare with Darian Mensah, Arch Manning, and the other top contenders. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/from-division-backup-to-heisman-favorite/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt0838946368d43285/6ab138f02f463d9bea63820c/GettyImages-2295662487.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2295662487.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Heisman Trophy Odds: Why Trinidad Chambliss is the New Favorite twitter:description: Trinidad Chambliss's 2026 Heisman odds jumped from 6% to 29% after Ole Miss beat LSU. See how his odds compare with Darian Mensah, Arch Manning, and the other top contenders. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt0838946368d43285/6ab138f02f463d9bea63820c/GettyImages-2295662487.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # From Division II Backup to Heisman Favorite > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Subscription: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition TIME is a general-interest news organization founded in 1923, reporting on the people, ideas and issues shaping the world. A TIME subscription provides full access to that journalism in print and digital, from $20 a year, and can be cancelled at any time. 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They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Sep 21, 2026 8:10 PM UTC  Mississippi Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss reacts after a LSU Tigers penalty during the fourth quarter of a college football game between the LSU Tigers and Mississippi Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, MS on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Mississippi Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss reacts after a LSU Tigers penalty during the fourth quarter of a college football game between the LSU Tigers and Mississippi Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, MS on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Austin McAfee—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Sep 21, 2026 8:10 PM UTC Two years ago, Trinidad Chambliss was sharing snaps at Division II Ferris State. Then the quarterback who was splitting reps with him broke his leg. Chambliss took over, won a national championship, and caught the attention of [Ole Miss](https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/trinidad-chambliss-ole-miss-division-ii-backup-college-football-playoff-hero/), which made him an offer to back up Austin Simmons. He did, for two weeks—until [Simmons rolled his ankle](https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/trinidad-chambliss-ole-miss-division-ii-backup-college-football-playoff-hero/) and the job defaulted to Chambliss. His third career FBS start came against then-Heisman favorite Garrett Nussmeier and No. 4 LSU, when Chambliss collected 385 yards and upset the Tigers. Then-Ole Miss coach [Lane Kiffin called](https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/%5F/id/46403988/trinidad-chambliss-stars-ole-miss) it a "really cool story," noting, "Here's a little, short kid from Division II going against Nussmeier and the mighty Tigers." Starter by circumstance, star by merit. Chambliss led Ole Miss to the 2025 College Football Playoff semifinal. The season officially ended there. Spiritually, though, it ended weeks earlier, when [Kiffin left for LSU](https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/%5F/id/47182491/lane-kiffin-final-days-ole-miss-move-lsu) and several key Ole Miss staffers agreed to follow him before the season was over. On Saturday, Kiffin and offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr., the coaches who brought Chambliss to the SEC, watched him throw for 363 yards and run for the [go-ahead touchdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7EKf9uw3rNc) in a 32-24 upset win over the mighty Tigers. That little, short kid from Division II is now the Heisman favorite after overtaking a quarterback playing nearly flawless football. He is chasing an award two Mannings never brought to Ole Miss—with a third Manning waiting in Texas. ## Heisman Trophy Odds Below are the [2026 Heisman Trophy odds](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxheisman/heisman-trophy-winner/kxheisman-27), per Kalshi.  Miami quarterback Darian Mensah is on pace to throw for roughly 3,500 yards, 44 touchdowns, and zero interceptions over a 12-game regular season. The Duke transfer completed 35 straight passes over his last two games, an [ACC record](https://x.com/ESPNInsights/status/2101293987902497190?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2101293987902497190%7Ctwgr%5E4b782a6b5b321b025f536cbff1e779e46e6f849f%7Ctwcon%5Es1%5F&ref%5Furl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.espn.com%2Fcollege-football%2Fstory%2F%5F%2Fid%2F49978349%2Fmiami-qb-darian-mensah-sets-pair-acc-completions-marks) and one shy of the FBS mark. He is also the first [FBS player](https://x.com/ESPNInsights/status/2101293987902497190?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2101293987902497190%7Ctwgr%5E4b782a6b5b321b025f536cbff1e779e46e6f849f%7Ctwcon%5Es1%5F&ref%5Furl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.espn.com%2Fcollege-football%2Fstory%2F%5F%2Fid%2F49978349%2Fmiami-qb-darian-mensah-sets-pair-acc-completions-marks) in at least 30 years to complete 85% of his passes (minimum five pass attempts) in three straight games. It is about as close to a perfect three games as a quarterback can have. Kalshi's market treated it as such, pushing Mensah's implied Heisman probability as high as 26.2% on Saturday afternoon. Then the LSU-Ole Miss game kicked off. Chambliss threw for 363 yards and two touchdowns against an LSU defense that had limited Clemson and Louisiana Tech to 248 passing yards and one touchdown combined. The Rebels quarterback entered Week 3 with a 6% implied Heisman probability, the sixth-highest in the market, and left it as the favorite at 29%. Mensah has the stronger case on paper: 873 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, zero interceptions; Chambliss has thrown for 924 yards, seven touchdowns, two interceptions. Miami fans will point toward those numbers. But three weeks into the season, counting stats say as much about the schedule as the quarterback—and help explain why Mensah both improved his Heisman resume and saw his week-over-week Heisman odds drop. This week's [AP poll](https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll) offers a useful parallel. Miami has gone 3-0 and outscored its opponents by 122 points, yet dropped from No. 5 to No. 6 in the rankings to make room for Ole Miss, which jumped from No. 8 to No. 4 following its win over then-ranked No. 7 LSU. Miami has yet to face a ranked opponent. Mensah has been fantastic, but his stats still reflect the competition. Chambliss, meanwhile, torched a top-10 opponent under almost every conceivable degree of difficulty. Television ratings for LSU-Ole Miss have not been released, though Oxford officials expected [350,000 people](https://www.fox8live.com/2026/09/15/extra-police-headed-oxford-massive-lsu-ole-miss-crowds/) in town, and a [record 70,033 attendees](https://x.com/OleMissFB/status/2101495286673666409?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2101495286673666409%7Ctwgr%5Ec72b95909fba84fbd1d95ba2d194010bb1316fe9%7Ctwcon%5Es1%5F&ref%5Furl=https%3A%2F%2Fbleacherreport.com%2Farticles%2F25501056-lsus-lane-kiffin-trolls-ole-miss-after-making-history-new-attendance-record) packed Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. There is no clean statistic for pressure, but this was one of the [most anticipated games of the season](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/lane-kiffin-returns-to-oxford/). Chambliss, two years removed from playing in stadiums seating only a few thousand, was at the center. The challenge was more than emotional, though. Kiffin and Weis coached Chambliss. Ole Miss-to-LSU transfers TJ Dottery and Princewill Umanmielen spent a season practicing against him. If any defense should have entered Saturday with an exceptionally detailed scouting report on Chambliss, it was this one. He countered with a career-high 363 passing yards—the kind of Saturday night Heisman voters remember. The market saw something beyond college production: Chambliss' probability of being the [No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnfldraftpick/nfl-draft-pick/kxnfldraftpick-27-1) climbed from 4% to 16%. Arch Manning is the only player priced ahead of him in the draft market. Chambliss is ahead of him in the Heisman market—and chasing a piece of Ole Miss history that has eluded the Manning family. Arch's grandfather and uncle, Archie and Eli, each finished third in [Heisman voting](https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2024-12-14/heisman-trophy-winners-and-runners-each-year-1935) as Rebels. An Ole Miss player has never won the award. And as it turns out, Ole Miss's Heisman history with the Mannings was not left behind in 2003: Chambliss and the Rebels will visit Manning and Texas on October 24, a projected top-10 matchup that is bound to reshape the Heisman market. The LSU win made Chambliss the favorite. The Texas game could make him undeniable. Mensah will have fewer such opportunities. As the rankings stand, Miami has only one ranked opponent on its schedule. For most of Chambliss' career, opportunity arrived only after the quarterback ahead of him went down. Now the rest of the Heisman field is looking up at him. Chambliss could become the first former Division II player to win the Heisman Trophy. Kiffin was right. It's a really cool story. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: Bold NFL Week 2 Predictions That Aren't So Bold](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/bold-nfl-predictions-that-aren-t-so-bold/)  ### Bold NFL Week 2 Predictions That Aren't So Bold [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/bold-nfl-predictions-that-aren-t-so-bold/) [Open article: Lane Kiffin Left Ole Miss. Now He Has to Go Back.](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/lane-kiffin-returns-to-oxford/)  ### Lane Kiffin Left Ole Miss. Now He Has to Go Back. [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/lane-kiffin-returns-to-oxford/) [Open article: UEFA Promised a More Competitive Champions League. The Odds Say It Delivered.](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/uefa-promised-a-more-competitive-champions-league-the-odds-say-it-delivered/)  ### UEFA Promised a More Competitive Champions League. The Odds Say It Delivered. [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/uefa-promised-a-more-competitive-champions-league-the-odds-say-it-delivered/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/from-division-backup-to-heisman-favorite/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/from-division-backup-to-heisman-favorite/"},"headline":"From Division II Backup to Heisman Favorite","datePublished":"2026-09-21T20:10:29.042Z","dateModified":"2026-09-21T20:10:12.078Z","description":"The former Division II backup beat the coaches who brought him to the SEC, passed a nearly perfect quarterback, and put himself in position to make Heisman history.","url":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/from-division-backup-to-heisman-favorite/","keywords":[],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt0838946368d43285/6ab138f02f463d9bea63820c/GettyImages-2295662487.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Annie Nader","jobTitle":"Prediction Markets Analyst","url":"https://time.com/author/annie-nader/"}],"articleSection":"Prediction Markets","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt0838946368d43285/6ab138f02f463d9bea63820c/GettyImages-2295662487.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"GettyImages-2295662487.jpg","caption":"","creditText":"Austin McAfee—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/from-division-backup-to-heisman-favorite/","name":"From Division II Backup to Heisman Favorite"}}]}] ```