--- title: Will 2026 Be the Hottest Year on Record? description: A spring heat wave in Europe and the likely return of El Niño have raised questions about whether 2026 could become the hottest year on record. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/europe-s-heat-wave-fuels-fears-of-a-record-hot-year/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-05-28T14:18:43.836Z article:modified_time: 2026-05-28T14:18:33.087Z og:title: Will 2026 Be the Hottest Year on Record? og:description: A spring heat wave in Europe and the likely return of El Niño have raised questions about whether 2026 could become the hottest year on record. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/europe-s-heat-wave-fuels-fears-of-a-record-hot-year/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt3edd335708be274d/6a175ba9cee0f33933055751/GettyImages-2277704114.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 675 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2277704114.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Will 2026 Be the Hottest Year on Record? twitter:description: A spring heat wave in Europe and the likely return of El Niño have raised questions about whether 2026 could become the hottest year on record. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt3edd335708be274d/6a175ba9cee0f33933055751/GettyImages-2277704114.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # Europe's Heat Wave Fuels Fears of a Record-Hot Year by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst May 28, 2026 2:18 PM UTC  Visitors at the Eiffel Tower during high temperatures in central Paris, France, on Tuesday, May 26, 2026. Visitors at the Eiffel Tower during high temperatures in central Paris, France, on Tuesday, May 26, 2026.Benjamin Girette—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst May 28, 2026 2:18 PM UTC Rain umbrellas are moonlighting as sun shields. Electric fans and bags of ice are [flying off shelves](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/may/26/sales-of-fans-ice-cubes-and-ice-baths-surge-during-may-uk-heatwave&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1779918810574583&usg=AOvVaw0oT-vCSMd6iWhMPbrmEWNw). Crowds are retreating to open water, where relief is met with a [warning](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp8plymvm47o). Across Europe, high summer rituals have arrived with a cruel reminder: it is still springtime. On Monday, [Kew Gardens reached](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/26/climate/europe-heat-climate-intl&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1779919003017284&usg=AOvVaw16hJXdgAotUWXvGUJYko8-) 34.8°C (94.6°F), the hottest May temperature ever recorded in Britain. The previous record belonged to another era: May 29, 1944, eight days before D-Day. The new record had no such staying power: by Tuesday, Kew had reached 35.1°C. An [amber health warning](https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/may/26/uk-weather-hottest-ever-may-day-britain-tropical-night) is expected to remain in place through Thursday for several regions in England, while other countries across Europe, including [France](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/26/world/europe/europe-heatwave-uk-spain-france.html), confront record May heat. The ongoing European heat wave is being attributed to a heat dome, a phenomenon in which high pressure in the atmosphere forms a ridge over an area. The dome "acts like a lid, preventing heat from escaping and blocking cloud formation, which leads to persistently high temperatures and minimal relief from the heat," [according](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/what-is-heat-dome&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1779918854842038&usg=AOvVaw0mnPoagYi5Am8LDtz7yMz%5F) to AccuWeather meteorologist Brandon Buckingham. The heat dome is not an isolated meteorological quirk, with United Nations climate chief Simon Stiell [stating](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260527-europe-heatwave-brutal-reminder-of-climate-change-un&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1779918834389564&usg=AOvVaw0eUy8jL-z5GttCA2g2c-LN) earlier this week, "the science is clear that human-induced [climate change](https://time.com/section/climate/) is making these heat waves more frequent and extreme." As a regional heat wave unfolds, scientists are tracking a global one: the impending return of [El Niño](https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/14/weather/super-el-nino-climate), a climate pattern marked by unusually warm Pacific Ocean waters that can push global temperatures higher. With the Northern Hemisphere heading into summer, the prospect of a record-breaking year is becoming harder to dismiss, even for those determined to look away from the sun: will 2026 be the hottest year on record? ## Could 2026 Be the Hottest Year on Record? Here's a look at the odds for where 2026 will rank among the hottest years, per [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-2026-rank-among-the-hottest-years-on-record). The market will resolve based on data from [NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://science.nasa.gov/earth/explore/earth-indicators/global-temperature/&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1779917506501348&usg=AOvVaw2SHC3yiXJ-zBMepyD-2b5P), which has been tracking global temperatures since 1880\.  On Polymarket, 2026 is currently priced at a 31% implied probability of becoming the hottest year on record and a 60% implied probability of becoming the second-hottest year on record. The market broadly tracks climate model projections. On April 21, [Carbon Brief](https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-strong-el-nino-puts-2026-on-track-for-second-warmest-year/#:~:text=Carbon%20Brief's%20projection%20suggests%20that,second%2Dwarmest%20year%20on%20record.) forecast that 2026 has a 19% chance of being the warmest year and a 62% chance of being the second-warmest year on record. It estimates the global average temperature will be 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels, which would put 2026 on track to be the second-hottest year, lagging only 2024—the first year to exceed 1.5°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels. The second-place projection is not a reflection of an unusually warm start to the year, but rather a warning of what's to come: Carbon Brief's analysis notes that 2026 ranked just fourth-warmest through its first three months, suggesting the most anomalous heat is still on the horizon. The signal lies in the Pacific. The [Climate Prediction Center](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis%5Fmonitoring/enso%5Fadvisory/ensodisc.shtml&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1779918877967013&usg=AOvVaw2NJYMc3lDde%5F6Ti%5Fein8bc) anticipates an El Niño event emerging during May to July (82% chance) and persisting from December to February of next year (96% chance). To gauge the potential strength of the event—in turn, informing its overarching consensus on 2026 global warming levels—Carbon Brief aggregated El Niño projections from 13 different [modeling groups](https://github.com/hausfath/climate-dashboard/blob/main/ENSO/METHODOLOGY.md) published since early April, containing 637 model runs. The aggregated models project a 2.2°C warming by September, which Carbon Brief characterizes as "super" El Niño territory. 2026's place in the history book—one measured in heat alerts, not celebration—will likely depend on the strength and timing of El Niño, though a record year would fit the pattern. In NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, the past decade does not just stand out; it accounts for the 10 hottest years on record. Open umbrellas on a sunny street are not just one image from an early heat wave, but a glimpse of a world where spring arrives dressed as summer. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: Why Big Brother Works as a Prediction Market](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/big-brother-may-be-the-perfect-reality-show-for-prediction-markets/)  ### Why Big Brother Works as a Prediction Market [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/big-brother-may-be-the-perfect-reality-show-for-prediction-markets/) [Open article: Pete Crow-Armstrong Crashes the Ohtani MVP Market](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/pete-crow-armstrong-crashes-the-nl-mvp-market/)  ### Pete Crow-Armstrong Crashes the Ohtani MVP Market [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/pete-crow-armstrong-crashes-the-nl-mvp-market/) [Open article: Spider-Man Eyes Box Office History](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/spider-man-brand-new-day-eyes-2026-s-biggest-debut/)  ### Spider-Man Eyes Box Office History [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/spider-man-brand-new-day-eyes-2026-s-biggest-debut/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/europe-s-heat-wave-fuels-fears-of-a-record-hot-year/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/europe-s-heat-wave-fuels-fears-of-a-record-hot-year/"},"headline":"Europe's Heat Wave Fuels Fears of a Record-Hot Year","datePublished":"2026-05-28T14:18:43.836Z","dateModified":"2026-05-28T14:18:33.087Z","description":"An early European heat wave, a likely El Niño, and a decade of record warmth are raising the possibility that 2026 could rank among the hottest years ever measured.","url":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/europe-s-heat-wave-fuels-fears-of-a-record-hot-year/","keywords":[],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt3edd335708be274d/6a175ba9cee0f33933055751/GettyImages-2277704114.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Annie Nader","jobTitle":"Prediction Markets Analyst","url":"https://time.com/author/annie-nader/"}],"articleSection":"","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt3edd335708be274d/6a175ba9cee0f33933055751/GettyImages-2277704114.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"GettyImages-2277704114.jpg","caption":"","creditText":"Benjamin Girette—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/europe-s-heat-wave-fuels-fears-of-a-record-hot-year/","name":"Europe's Heat Wave Fuels Fears of a Record-Hot Year"}}]}] ```