--- title: 2026 Emmy Snubs and Surprise Nominations, According to the Odds description: Here are the biggest snubs and surprise nominees from the 2026 Emmy nominations, based on Kalshi's pre-announcement odds. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/emmy-snubs-surprises-according-to-prediction-markets/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-07-10T20:16:50.061Z article:modified_time: 2026-07-10T20:16:42.700Z og:title: 2026 Emmy Snubs and Surprise Nominations, According to the Odds og:description: Here are the biggest snubs and surprise nominees from the 2026 Emmy nominations, based on Kalshi's pre-announcement odds. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/emmy-snubs-surprises-according-to-prediction-markets/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltef277f118ca4a04a/6a506dd915753662e39b22fa/GettyImages-2171592496.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 675 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2171592496.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: 2026 Emmy Snubs and Surprise Nominations, According to the Odds twitter:description: Here are the biggest snubs and surprise nominees from the 2026 Emmy nominations, based on Kalshi's pre-announcement odds. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltef277f118ca4a04a/6a506dd915753662e39b22fa/GettyImages-2171592496.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # Emmy Snubs & Surprises, According to Prediction Markets by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Jul 10, 2026 8:16 PM UTC  Jeremy Allen White, Liza Colón-Zayas and Ebon Moss-Bachrach at the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards held at Peacock Theater in Los Angeles, California on September 15, 2024. Jeremy Allen White, Liza Colón-Zayas and Ebon Moss-Bachrach at the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards held at Peacock Theater in Los Angeles, California on September 15, 2024.Gilbert Flores—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Jul 10, 2026 8:16 PM UTC When the cast of [_It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia_](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HaMbHq6%5FoIU) finally took the Emmy stage, Charlie Day looked out at the tuxedoed crowd and asked a question that had been simmering since 2005: "Have you guys been doing this every single year without us?" Emmy snubs are such a durable Hollywood tradition that the Television Academy now turns its own oversights into self-deprecating bits, inviting long-overlooked casts—from _Sunny_ to _Martin_—onstage for a televised apology tour. But rather than relying on hindsight or internet outrage to decide what counts as a snub, prediction markets now put a number on exactly where Emmy voters defied expectations. The [78th Primetime Emmy Award nominations](https://www.televisionacademy.com/events/78th-emmy-nominations-announcement) arrived on Wednesday morning. [_The Pitt_](https://time.com/7344512/the-pitt-season-2-review/)led all programs with 25 nods, [_Hacks_ set a new comedy record](https://deadline.com/2026/07/hacks-emmy-nominations-record-comedy-series-final-season-1236975392/) with 24, and first-season comedy-horror [_Widow's Bay_](https://time.com/article/2026/04/23/widows-bay-review/) emerged as the Television Academy's newest darling with 19\. Those frontrunners largely delivered what traders had priced in. But after roughly $230,000 was wagered across [Kalshi's Emmy nomination markets](https://kalshi.com/search?q=Emmy%20Nominations&order%5Fby=querymatch), the morning's real plot twist came when the odds and the ballot diverged—including one supporting-actress contender who was favored to win her category but missed the ballot entirely. Here are the biggest snubs and surprises for the 2026 Emmy Awards, according to the market. ## Biggest Surprises Below are the pre-announcement implied probabilities on Kalshi for the long-shot contenders that ultimately received an Emmy nomination: _Nobody Wants This,_ Comedy Series—6% _All Her Fault_, Limited or Anthology Series—29% Chase Infiniti, _The Testaments,_ Lead Actress in a Drama Series—32% Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, _Wonder Man,_ Lead Actor in a Comedy Series—7% Richard Jenkins, _DTF St. Louis,_ Supporting Actor in a Limited Series—10% Nick Offerman, _Death by Lightning,_ Supporting Actor in a Limited Series—26% _Nobody Wants This_ has been baiting headline writers since its debut, and Emmy voters made the obvious pun unavoidable: Kalshi gave the series just a 6% chance to score a nomination in the comedy field, only for its title to be proven wrong. One Academy's snub became another's surprise: months after Oscar voters passed over Chase Infiniti for _One Battle After Another_, the Emmys called her name for _The Testaments_, [Hulu's sequel series to _The Handmaid's Tale_](Emmy voters nominated her for The Testaments despite just a 32% chance on Kalshi). Richard Jenkins finally got the HBO nomination _Six Feet Under_ owed him, breaking through for _DTF St. Louis_ with just a 10% chance on Kalshi. But for every contender who beat the odds, another supposed lock ended up on the cutting room floor. ## Biggest Snubs Below are the pre-announcement implied probabilities on Kalshi for the favored contenders that ultimately did not receive an Emmy nomination: _The Comeback,_ Comedy Series—84% _Half Man,_ Limited or Anthology Series—80% Jeremy Allen White, _The Bear,_ Lead Actor in a Comedy Series—75% Ebon Moss-Bachrach, _The Bear,_ Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series—86% Bowen Yang, _Saturday Night Live,_ Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series—64% Cailee Spaeny, _Beef,_ Supporting Actress in a Limited Series—97% Sheryl Lee Ralph, _Abbott Elementary,_ Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series—76% [Ebon Moss-Bachrach is tired of answering to "Yes, chef."](https://www.tiktok.com/@livdesena/video/7658377373045378334) Emmy voters have obliged: the two-time winner did not receive a nomination in the Supporting Actor category despite an 86% chance, a fate shared by his _The Bear_ co-star Jeremy Allen White. Cailee Spaeny was the market's biggest miss. With a 97% chance of being nominated and a [39% chance of winning](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxemmylsactr/emmy-for-movielimited-supporting-actress/kxemmylsactr-26sep14), the _Beef_ star wasn't merely expected to make the ballot—the market had already skipped ahead to her acceptance speech. [_The Comeback_](https://time.com/3560482/review-the-comeback/)has always treated waiting as part of the bit. With three seasons spanning three decades, it's the cult favorite Emmy voters eventually come around to—a belief reflected in its 84% chance of being nominated. Lisa Kudrow scored a nomination in the Lead Actress category, but if the show leaves empty-handed, it may be headed for the full [_Martin_ treatment](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gh9suXESF2w): the Emmys miss the moment, then turn the apology into television. ## ## --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: Prediction Markets Called Spider-Man's Box Office Record](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/prediction-markets-saw-spider-man-s-box-office-record-coming/)  ### Prediction Markets Called Spider-Man's Box Office Record [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/prediction-markets-saw-spider-man-s-box-office-record-coming/) [Open article: Why Big Brother Works as a Prediction Market](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/big-brother-may-be-the-perfect-reality-show-for-prediction-markets/)  ### Why Big Brother Works as a Prediction Market [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/big-brother-may-be-the-perfect-reality-show-for-prediction-markets/) [Open article: Pete Crow-Armstrong Crashes the Ohtani MVP Market](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/pete-crow-armstrong-crashes-the-nl-mvp-market/)  ### Pete Crow-Armstrong Crashes the Ohtani MVP Market [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/pete-crow-armstrong-crashes-the-nl-mvp-market/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/emmy-snubs-surprises-according-to-prediction-markets/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/emmy-snubs-surprises-according-to-prediction-markets/"},"headline":"Emmy Snubs & Surprises, According to Prediction Markets","datePublished":"2026-07-10T20:16:50.061Z","dateModified":"2026-07-10T20:16:42.700Z","description":"Emmy snubs are a Hollywood tradition. 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