--- title: Brock Purdy NFL MVP Odds: Why the 49ers QB Is the Favorite description: Brock Purdy's MVP odds are rising. Explore his EPA, the history of NFL MVP winners, and why Josh Allen's latest win could help the 49ers quarterback. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/brock-purdy-is-beating-the-system/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-10-14T23:07:09.085Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-14T23:06:52.587Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: Brock Purdy NFL MVP Odds: Why the 49ers QB Is the Favorite og:description: Brock Purdy's MVP odds are rising. Explore his EPA, the history of NFL MVP winners, and why Josh Allen's latest win could help the 49ers quarterback. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/brock-purdy-is-beating-the-system/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltea0c8dd9ed6f41a8/6acefe47b12e6a114ebb7530/GettyImages-2299734007.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2299734007.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Brock Purdy NFL MVP Odds: Why the 49ers QB Is the Favorite twitter:description: Brock Purdy's MVP odds are rising. Explore his EPA, the history of NFL MVP winners, and why Josh Allen's latest win could help the 49ers quarterback. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltea0c8dd9ed6f41a8/6acefe47b12e6a114ebb7530/GettyImages-2299734007.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # Brock Purdy Is Beating the System > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Subscription: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition TIME is a general-interest news organization founded in 1923, reporting on the people, ideas and issues shaping the world. A TIME subscription provides full access to that journalism in print and digital, from $20 a year, and can be cancelled at any time. 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Its journalism is reported and edited by a professional newsroom led by Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs, with named correspondents on politics, climate, health, technology and culture. It reaches 1 million US print subscribers and 1.15 million globally, plus more than 1.1 million newsletter readers. #### How do I subscribe to TIME magazine? Subscriptions are at time.com/subscribe-agent. Choose digital only at $20 a year, or print and digital from $29 a year or $49 for two years. TIME also publishes seven free email newsletters at time.com/newsletters, which do not require a subscription. #### Can I cancel a TIME subscription? Yes. TIME states that subscriptions can be cancelled at any time. #### Does TIME have free newsletters? Yes. TIME publishes seven free email newsletters reaching more than 1.1 million readers, covering daily news, Washington politics, health, AI, climate and energy, culture, and the newsroom itself. They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-sub-2026q3/newsletters?i=2559bca1-69a4-4d5c-b71d-bc46807c9690&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) * TIME Subscriptions: [time.com/subscribe-agent](/c/time-sub-2026q3/subscribe?i=2559bca1-69a4-4d5c-b71d-bc46807c9690&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Oct 14, 2026 11:07 PM UTC  Brock Purdy #13 of the San Francisco 49ers looks to pass the ball against the Seattle Seahawks during the third quarter at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington on October 11, 2026. Brock Purdy #13 of the San Francisco 49ers looks to pass the ball against the Seattle Seahawks during the third quarter at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington on October 11, 2026. Steph Chambers—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Oct 14, 2026 11:07 PM UTC Brock Purdy has become the face of the "system quarterback" insult, at least according to [Google Images](https://www.google.com/search?sca%5Fesv=d11bf3d68244a04c&rlz=1C5GCCM%5Fen&sxsrf=APpeQntMiDFzwEnYEI6SLYVF4XoI0hCEQQ:1792017827103&udm=2&fbs=ABfTbFVyMZGZf1hfvX9uKjN%5F-G8c4u0nXx4bEIpwm1lnNH832QGGMdFXpDyzkQgEdtB8w9zZ67Faapx8wIWp8O3JpX8ZaGK8XOQO1QpgtVZa1-fu0dLiphNCXRB4Ka9XWNF7mM-%5FFejuFzmj63qts6QhpB13348o4gby0TSk6eSS%5F5IM2dTNBxklQ2B%5FAcsJfk%5FcpHmcjX7%5FiUSAyhKLMjStJW-cYGYLMw&q=system+quarterback&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwioyY%5FQyrqXAxXZEFkFHdprB6kQtKgLegQIHBAB&biw=1512&bih=861&dpr=2), [rival NFC executives](https://www.nbcsportsbayarea.com/nfl/san-francisco-49ers/brock-purdy-system-qb-survey/1756026/), and [Shannon Sharpe](https://www.nbcsportsbayarea.com/nfl/san-francisco-49ers/brock-purdy-system-qb-survey/1756026/). A "system quarterback" is one whose success relies on an elite offensive scheme, coaching staff, and supporting cast. The term is, more or less, a polite way of calling someone replaceable. Purdy, who has played under Kyle Shanahan and alongside Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams (to name a few of the many 49ers bound for Canton) since he entered the league in 2022, does not deny that he has benefited from his circumstances. He's just missing the part where that's supposed to be an insult. Purdy has offered his [interpretation](https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/49ers-brock-purdy-laughs-off-system-quarterback-label-mutes-criticism-after-massive-contract-extension/) of the system label. He views it as a [compliment](https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/49ers-brock-purdy-laughs-off-system-quarterback-label-mutes-criticism-after-massive-contract-extension/): "I took that as I'm a guy that can come in and do what the coach says and win games because of that." For someone who consistently wins games and makes Drew Brees seem like a braggart, Purdy is awfully divisive. [ESPN asked 103 NFL players to rank quarterbacks](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/%5F/id/41001234/nfl-patrick-mahomes-lamar-jackson-caleb-williams-quarterbacks-ranking) on a variety of criteria ahead of the 2024 season. Fourteen players said Purdy was the most underrated quarterback in the league. Six said he was the most overrated. Nobody seems to know where credit is due. Purdy has become something of a litmus test for ball knowledge, except both sides of the argument are convinced the other doesn't know what it's watching. Ahead of the 2026 NFL season, ESPN polled executives, coaches, and scouts on the [top 10 quarterbacks in the NFL](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/%5F/id/49315416/ranking-nfl-top-10-quarterbacks-2026-execs-coaches-scouts). Purdy did not make the cut, instead listed as an honorable mention. Justin Herbert, who currently ranks 30th of 30 among qualified players in [total quarterback rating](https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/player/%5F/table/passing/sort/adjQBR/dir/desc), was voted the seventh-best quarterback. Purdy entered the NFL as "Mr. Irrelevant," the nickname reserved for the final player selected in the draft. The football world has since had no trouble finding labels to discredit his value: system quarterback, game manager, Kyle Shanahan merchant. Now prediction-market traders have a new one: MVP favorite. Purdy has already led the NFL in the stat that best predicts MVP. He has a fourth-place finish to show for it. But a decade of MVP data suggests Purdy has a stronger case this season than even bullish prediction-market traders may realize—and his closest challenger just did him a huge favor by rushing for 121 yards in an overtime win. ## NFL MVP Odds Below are the [2026 NFL MVP odds](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflmvp/ap-pro-football-regular-season-mvp/kxnflmvp-27), per Kalshi.  Purdy's chances of winning MVP have climbed from [5% to 30%](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nfl-mvp-race-starts-and-ends-under-center/) since the start of the season. He's gone from 10th to the market favorite in just five games, yet his underlying stats imply he may have an even better shot than his odds suggest. The 49ers are one of just two teams to start the season 5-0, with Purdy throwing for 1,196 yards, 13 touchdowns, and two interceptions. Purdy leads the way in passing touchdowns and [passer rating](https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/player/%5F/table/passing/sort/QBRating/dir/desc) among qualified signal-callers. More significant, Purdy paces the league in what may be the strongest statistical indicator of winning MVP: expected points added per dropback. Expected points added (EPA) measures how much a play improves or worsens a team's scoring outlook, accounting for factors such as down, distance, and field position. One yard can be worth more than five yards. As [Mike Sando](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7605384/2026/09/22/nfl-analytics-explainer-guide-glossary-epa-success-rate/) at The Athletic put it: "[gaining a single yard on fourth-and-one beats gaining five yards on third-and-ten.](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7605384/2026/09/22/nfl-analytics-explainer-guide-glossary-epa-success-rate/)" EPA accounts for that. Expected points added per dropback (EPA/DB) measures expected scoring value each time a quarterback drops back to pass, including plays that result in a sack or scramble. A quarterback with +0.25 EPA/DB improves his team's expected scoring outlook by an average of 0.25 points on each dropback. EPA assigns a number to value. NFL MVP voters have spent the past decade largely agreeing with that number. Nine of the past 10 MVP winners finished the season in the [top 3 in EPA/DB](https://nflsavant.com/explore?q=eyJncm91cEJ5IjoicGFzc2VyIiwibWV0cmljcyI6WyJwbGF5cyIsInBsYXlfcGN0IiwicGFzc195ZHMiLCJ0ZHMiLCJlcGFfcGxheSIsImNwb2UiXSwiZmlsdGVycyI6W3siaWQiOjEsImZpZWxkIjoicWJfZHJvcGJhY2siLCJvcCI6ImlzIiwidmFsdWUiOnRydWV9LHsiaWQiOjIsImZpZWxkIjoic2Vhc29uIiwib3AiOiI9IiwidmFsdWUiOjIwMjV9LHsiaWQiOjE3OTE5OTcyMDY0ODEsImZpZWxkIjoic2Vhc29uX3R5cGUiLCJvcCI6ImlzIiwidmFsdWUiOiJSRUcifV0sImhhdmluZyI6eyJtZXRyaWMiOiJwbGF5cyIsIm9wIjoiPj0iLCJ2YWx1ZSI6MTAwfSwic29ydCI6eyJpZCI6ImVwYV9wbGF5IiwiZGlyIjoiZGVzYyJ9LCJsaW1pdCI6NTB9). Seven of them finished first. Lamar Jackson won the 2023 MVP while finishing [eighth](https://nflsavant.com/explore?q=eyJncm91cEJ5IjoicGFzc2VyIiwibWV0cmljcyI6WyJwbGF5cyIsInBsYXlfcGN0IiwicGFzc195ZHMiLCJ0ZHMiLCJlcGFfcGxheSIsImNwb2UiXSwiZmlsdGVycyI6W3siaWQiOjEsImZpZWxkIjoicWJfZHJvcGJhY2siLCJvcCI6ImlzIiwidmFsdWUiOnRydWV9LHsiaWQiOjIsImZpZWxkIjoic2Vhc29uIiwib3AiOiI9IiwidmFsdWUiOjIwMjN9LHsiaWQiOjE3OTE5OTcyMDY0ODEsImZpZWxkIjoic2Vhc29uX3R5cGUiLCJvcCI6ImlzIiwidmFsdWUiOiJSRUcifV0sImhhdmluZyI6eyJtZXRyaWMiOiJwbGF5cyIsIm9wIjoiPj0iLCJ2YWx1ZSI6MTAwfSwic29ydCI6eyJpZCI6ImVwYV9wbGF5IiwiZGlyIjoiZGVzYyJ9LCJsaW1pdCI6NTB9) in EPA/DB. He was the lone outlier to the trend. Take a wild guess at who led the league with +0.30 EPA/DB that season: Mr. Irrelevant. Purdy finished fourth in [2023 MVP voting](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/awards/awards%5F2023.htm) despite leading the league in EPA/DB. And in a not-so-ironic twist on the system quarterback label, his teammate, McCaffrey, finished third in voting. Five games into this season, Purdy is keeping pace with all the benchmarks that have defined the past decade of MVP winners (all of whom were quarterbacks): * **10 of 10 threw at least 3.4 touchdowns per interception** * Purdy is at 6.5 * **10 of 10 won at least 11 games** * The 49ers are favored to win more than [12.5](https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/navigation/nfl?tab=win-totals) games * **9 of 10 won their division** * The 49ers have a [67%](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflnfcwest/national-football-conference-west-winner/kxnflnfcwest-27) chance of winning the NFC West * **9 of 10 finished top 3 in EPA/DB** * Purdy is first with +0.39 EPA/DB Purdy checks all the individual boxes—and his biggest competitor in the MVP race just threw him a block. Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills upset the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night, sending the 2-3 Rams' NFC West odds from 29% to 19%. Purdy and Co. also upset the Seattle Seahawks on the road in Week 5\. San Francisco's NFC West odds have climbed from [21% to 67%](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nfc-s-divisions-dont-add-up/) since the start of the season. The 49ers are winning games by winning early downs. The best way to convert on third down: avoid it altogether. The 49ers are tied with the Bills and Ravens for the [fewest third downs](https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-downs-per-game) among teams that have played at least five games. Purdy is adding [+0.67 expected points per dropback on second downs](https://nflsavant.com/explore?q=eyJncm91cEJ5IjoicGFzc2VyIiwibWV0cmljcyI6WyJwbGF5cyIsInBsYXlfcGN0IiwicGFzc195ZHMiLCJ0ZHMiLCJlcGFfcGxheSIsImNwb2UiXSwiZmlsdGVycyI6W3siaWQiOjIsImZpZWxkIjoic2Vhc29uIiwib3AiOiI9IiwidmFsdWUiOjIwMjZ9LHsiaWQiOjE3OTE5NTgwMjg1NTAsImZpZWxkIjoiZG93biIsIm9wIjoiPSIsInZhbHVlIjoyfV0sInNvcnQiOnsiaWQiOiJlcGFfcGxheSIsImRpciI6ImRlc2MifSwibGltaXQiOjUwfQ%3D%3D) this season. For comparison, Matthew Stafford led the league in second-down EPA/DB last season with +0.27\. And third downs aren't the only thing Purdy has been dodging. Former NFL quarterback and ESPN analyst [Dan Orlovsky](https://x.com/danorlovsky7?lang=en) recently called [sacks the most underrated quarterback statistic](https://www.threads.com/@omnipotent2302/post/Ddd-0yZF2HO/video-rapid-fire-with-dan-orlovsky/). Purdy has played three of his five games against teams that currently rank in the top 12 in sacks, yet he's taken only three of them, the fewest among qualified players. Purdy may never shake the system quarterback label. He might just make it a compliment. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: College Basketball Is Betting on Experience](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/college-basketball-national-championship-odds/)  ### College Basketball Is Betting on Experience [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/college-basketball-national-championship-odds/) [Open article: Kelly Clarkson Could Sign Off With an Emmy Sweep](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/daytime-emmys-odds-kelly-clarkson-show/)  ### Kelly Clarkson Could Sign Off With an Emmy Sweep [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/daytime-emmys-odds-kelly-clarkson-show/) [Open article: "You Can See Everything" Is Taking Over the Oscar Race](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/surprise-actress-joins-oscars-buzz-for-you-can-see-everything/)  ### "You Can See Everything" Is Taking Over the Oscar Race [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/surprise-actress-joins-oscars-buzz-for-you-can-see-everything/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/brock-purdy-is-beating-the-system/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/brock-purdy-is-beating-the-system/"},"headline":"Brock Purdy Is Beating the System","datePublished":"2026-10-14T23:07:09.085Z","dateModified":"2026-10-14T23:06:52.587Z","description":"Long dismissed as a \"system quarterback,\" Brock Purdy is now the MVP favorite. 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