--- title: 79th Tony Awards Betting Odds: Liberation and Schmigadoon! Favored for Best Play, Best Musical description: Prediction markets have poured more than $800K into Tony Awards trading on Kalshi, but Broadway's biggest night may still be harder to price than the market suggests. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/broadway-meets-the-betting-market-at-the-79th-tony-awards/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-06-05T18:12:22.179Z article:modified_time: 2026-06-05T18:11:28.406Z og:title: 79th Tony Awards Betting Odds: Liberation and Schmigadoon! Favored for Best Play, Best Musical og:description: Prediction markets have poured more than $800K into Tony Awards trading on Kalshi, but Broadway's biggest night may still be harder to price than the market suggests. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/broadway-meets-the-betting-market-at-the-79th-tony-awards/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltca8d3f0613744db0/6a21b7ba6c0c2cedf27921e7/GettyImages-2218747532.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 675 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2218747532.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: 79th Tony Awards Betting Odds: Liberation and Schmigadoon! Favored for Best Play, Best Musical twitter:description: Prediction markets have poured more than $800K into Tony Awards trading on Kalshi, but Broadway's biggest night may still be harder to price than the market suggests. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltca8d3f0613744db0/6a21b7ba6c0c2cedf27921e7/GettyImages-2218747532.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # Broadway Meets the Betting Market at the 79th Tony Awards by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Jun 5, 2026 6:12 PM UTC  Cynthia Erivo performs at The 78th Annual Tony Awards, live from the legendary Radio City Music Hall in New York City on June 8, 2025. Cynthia Erivo performs at The 78th Annual Tony Awards, live from the legendary Radio City Music Hall in New York City on June 8, 2025.Michele Crowe—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Jun 5, 2026 6:12 PM UTC Lin-Manuel Miranda once improved his high school math grade the [musical-theater way](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmf3YL9LUDQ), turning Billy Joel's "The Longest Time" into a parody song called "For the Law of Sines." Broadway likes its digits in 11 o'clock numbers, 76 trombones, and 525,600 minutes. It favors art over arithmetic, feeling over forecasting, and drama over data. The Tony Awards and prediction markets are not natural scene partners, yet the 79th ceremony has become one of the most popular entertainment offerings on those platforms. On Kalshi alone, Tony Awards markets have drawn [more than $800K in trading volume](https://kalshi.com/search?q=tony%20awards&order%5Fby=querymatch). With the ceremony still two days away, trading activity could soon rival Kalshi's markets for this year's MLB MVP race—a striking benchmark for Broadway's unlikely turn as a tradable event. The surge is revealing not because the market has solved the Tony Awards, but because so many traders are willing to try. The Oscars have a months-long breadcrumb trail of precursor prizes. The Emmy Awards often feature returning shows and repeat winners. Those races offer traders something to analyze—or at least something to mistake for analysis. Both also benefit from a basic advantage the Tonys lack: a broad audience can watch the nominated movies or television shows at home, form a rooting interest, and turn that opinion into a wager. The Tony Awards are decided by a [voting body](https://www.broadwayworld.com/article/How-Are-Tony-Awards-Winners-Decided-Voting-Explained-20260509) of roughly 800 theater professionals, a group the markets have not always read well. Last year, Cole Escola's _Oh, Mary!_ had -430 [odds to win Best Play,](https://www.fanduel.com/research/2025-tony-awards-betting-odds-for-all-awards) but Branden Jacobs-Jenkins' _Purpose_ took home the night's biggest prize. _Purpose_ carried +800 pre-show odds, which translates to an 11.1% implied probability. Heading into Sunday night's ceremony, how is the market reading this year's Tony Awards, and could the high trading activity make for a sharper crowd? ## Tony Awards: Best Play Here's a look at the [odds for Best Play at the 79th Tony Awards](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtonyawards/who-will-win-tony-award/kxtonyawards-26bp), per [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/).  _Liberation_ by Bess Wohl is favored to win Best Play, currently showing a 76% implied win probability. Wohl would become just the fourth woman in [history](https://playbill.com/article/a-woman-hasnt-won-the-best-play-tony-award-since-2009-bess-wohl-can-change-that) to take home Best Play honors, and her short odds appear well earned: _Liberation_ won the Pulitzer Prize for Drama, the Drama League Award for Outstanding Production of a Play, and is nominated in four other Tony categories. Liberation has earned its place at the top of the market, though the distance between it and the field may be harder to justify. Last month, David Lindsay-Abaire's _The Balusters_ took home the Outer Critics Circle (OCC) Award for Outstanding New Broadway Play—a prize that has foreshadowed 21 of the past 23 Tony winners for Best Play. There is a caveat: _Liberation_ premiered Off-Broadway last season, winning Outstanding New Off-Broadway Play, meaning only the "[new elements](https://playbill.com/article/outer-critics-circle-sets-dates-for-2026-awards)" of its production were eligible for consideration at this year's OCC Awards. Even so, given the OCC's track record as a Tony bellwether, _The Balusters_ may have a stronger case than its odds suggest. _The Hollywood Reporter_'s [Tony Awards predictions](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lifestyle/arts/tony-awards-predictions-2026-1236611539/), which are based on a model using historical data—previous theater honors, aggregated critic predictions, and betting markets—arrived at a similar read. It has _Liberation_ favored to win, but only at a 60.2% probability. One year after Best Play sprang a Tony-night stunner, this race has the feel of a category that could go off-script. ## Tony Awards: Best Musical Here's a look at the [odds for Best Musical at the 79th Tony Awards](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtonyawards/who-will-win-tony-award/kxtonyawards-26bm), per Kalshi.  _Schmigadoon!_ enters Tony night as the musical to beat, carrying a 76% implied win probability—the same commanding market share as _Liberation_. There may be another twist waiting in the wings, though. _The Hollywood Reporter_'s projections give _Schmigadoon!_ just a 53.3% chance to win Best Musical. The model gives _The Lost Boys_ a 26.1% chance and _Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)_ a 13.8% chance. It's an especially interesting read given that the _The Hollywood Reporter_ itself notes it utilizes betting markets in its model—the same one that's bullish on _Schmigadoon!_. Awards analysts are singing a different song than the markets. [_Deadline_](https://deadline.com/lists/tony-awards-predictions-winners-2026/best-musical-the-lost-boys/)views _The Lost Boys_ as the musical that "will" and "should" win. [_Variety_](https://variety.com/lists/tonys-awards-winner-predictions-2026/best-musical-3/)has _Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)_ as its "will" and "should" win selection. Sunday night will reveal whether the crowd confused backstage chatter for a standing ovation—or whether it saw the final act before Broadway's own forecasters did. Broadway may like its numbers with melody attached, but this year's loudest figure is more blunt: $800,000 in trading volume, and counting. ## ## ## ## ## ## --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: Pete Crow-Armstrong Crashes the Ohtani MVP Market](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/pete-crow-armstrong-crashes-the-nl-mvp-market/)  ### Pete Crow-Armstrong Crashes the Ohtani MVP Market [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/pete-crow-armstrong-crashes-the-nl-mvp-market/) [Open article: Spider-Man Eyes Box Office History](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/spider-man-brand-new-day-eyes-2026-s-biggest-debut/)  ### Spider-Man Eyes Box Office History [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/spider-man-brand-new-day-eyes-2026-s-biggest-debut/) [Open article: Kawhi Leonard Trade on Hold, Raptors Still Favored](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/kawhi-leonard-s-raptors-reunion-could-outlive-clippers-trade/)  ### Kawhi Leonard Trade on Hold, Raptors Still Favored [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/kawhi-leonard-s-raptors-reunion-could-outlive-clippers-trade/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/broadway-meets-the-betting-market-at-the-79th-tony-awards/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/broadway-meets-the-betting-market-at-the-79th-tony-awards/"},"headline":"Broadway Meets the Betting Market at the 79th Tony Awards","datePublished":"2026-06-05T18:12:22.179Z","dateModified":"2026-06-05T18:11:28.406Z","description":"Prediction markets and the Tony Awards are an awkward fit, but traders have poured serious money into Broadway's biggest night. 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