--- title: 3 NFL Week 2 Bold Predictions, According to Prediction Markets description: Prediction-market odds point to three surprising NFL Week 2 outcomes, including a sharp scoring drop, a Broncos rebound, and another quiet game for Ja'Marr Chase. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/bold-nfl-predictions-that-aren-t-so-bold/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-09-18T21:01:07.547Z article:modified_time: 2026-09-18T21:01:03.553Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: 3 NFL Week 2 Bold Predictions, According to Prediction Markets og:description: Prediction-market odds point to three surprising NFL Week 2 outcomes, including a sharp scoring drop, a Broncos rebound, and another quiet game for Ja'Marr Chase. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/bold-nfl-predictions-that-aren-t-so-bold/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt1839c5dbbddf3563/6aacc19fbf6e64844bd1a616/GettyImages-2294881937.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2294881937.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: 3 NFL Week 2 Bold Predictions, According to Prediction Markets twitter:description: Prediction-market odds point to three surprising NFL Week 2 outcomes, including a sharp scoring drop, a Broncos rebound, and another quiet game for Ja'Marr Chase. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt1839c5dbbddf3563/6aacc19fbf6e64844bd1a616/GettyImages-2294881937.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # Bold NFL Predictions That Aren't So Bold > Sponsored content. 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They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Sep 18, 2026 9:01 PM UTC  Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (1) runs onto the field before the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, OH on September 13, 2026. Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (1) runs onto the field before the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, OH on September 13, 2026. Michael Hickey—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Sep 18, 2026 9:01 PM UTC An entire division went winless. A backup quarterback beat the Packers by 17 points. The Bills won a game in Houston for the first time since 2006\. A team that went 6-11 last season beat one that went 14-3\. The outcomes may read like upsets. But like [T.J. Watt jumping a Cooper Rush pass for six](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLDZDrtWAvc), the market was one read ahead. Minnesota was favored over Green Bay, Buffalo was favored over Houston, Kansas City was favored over Denver, and every NFC South team was priced as an underdog entering Week 1\. Putting probabilities next to predictions—in liquid NFL markets that drew more than [$1 billion in trading volume](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/nfl-week-1-ran-up-more-than-the-score/) on Kalshi last week—can separate what sounds bold from what is actually likely. The NFL Week 2 markets point to outcomes that may seem surprising based on prevailing narratives, recent play, or historical trends, but are still priced as the favored outcomes. The idea here is not to defy the odds, but to find spots where traders are defying expectations. Heading into Week 2, traders are anticipating the sharpest Sunday scoring decline since 2021, a turnaround from one of last week's ugliest offenses, and another quiet afternoon for one of the best receivers in football. Three bold predictions that, according to the market, are not particularly bold. ### Sunday Scoring Average Drops Eight Points Last Sunday's games averaged 53.3 points. The [average game total](https://kalshi.com/hubs/nfl) for this Sunday is currently 44.5 points on Kalshi, implying a week-over-week drop of 8.8 points per game. Should that projection hold, the scoring decline would be larger than any Sunday-to-Sunday decline in any of the past four seasons. The scoring pace was never going to hold after last Sunday's slate set a [Week 1 scoring record](https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/sunday-was-the-highest-scoring-nfl-week-1-of-all-time/). Whether that was a product of over-prepared offenses facing under-prepared defenses, [unusual quarterback continuity](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/nfl-week-1-ran-up-more-than-the-score/), or the overall volatile nature of the opening week, the scoring surge caught the market off guard: 9 of 13 games went over. Regression to the mean can sometimes be a waiting game, but the market expects an immediate correction. Nearly half the games (6 of 13) totaled at least 60 points last Sunday. Only two of 14 games have an over/under above 46.5 this weekend. And though the league-wide scoring pace is expected to cool, one of last week's coldest offenses is expected to heat up. ### Bo Nix and the Broncos Bounce Back The Los Angeles Chargers were favored by a week-high 9.5 points and still lost to the Arizona Cardinals, making enemies out of roughly [32%](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7592765/2026/09/14/survivor-pools-nfl-betting/) of survivor-pool entrants. Los Angeles saw its [AFC West implied odds](https://kalshi.com/hubs/nfl?tab=Divisions&scope=Division+Winner) cut in half, from 32% to 16%, in a blink. The Denver Broncos arguably had a worse week. Bo Nix threw for 131 yards, was sacked four times, and committed two turnovers in a 31-10 loss to the Chiefs, a game in which Kansas City was favored by only 2.5 points. Broncos head coach [Sean Payton turned over play-calling duties to the team's offensive coordinator](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/why-isn-t-sean-payton-042700628.html) this season, a move that likely would have been a footnote. Then Nix averaged 4.7 yards per pass attempt and it became the main talking point of the _Monday Night Football_ broadcast. Even receiver Jaylen Waddle, Denver's shiny [offseason addition](https://www.denverbroncos.com/news/broncos-acquire-wr-jaylen-waddle-in-trade-with-dolphins), mustered just two yards. The Denver defense, meanwhile, regarded as a [top-five unit](https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-s-top-10-defenses-in-2026-texans-seahawks-rams-headline-ranking-don-t-sleep-on-jags-bucs) entering the season, coughed up 173 rushing yards and 7.5 yards per attempt to running back Kenneth Walker. It was just one of those games that last season's 14-3 team hopes and prays was an opening week fluke. The market is betting that it was.  The Broncos have a 58% implied win probability and are favored by 2.5 points over the Jacksonville Jaguars, a group that won 34-10 last week and is favored to defend its division this season. It's not an easy matchup for Denver, which makes the market's faith in them righting the ship that much more inspiring to a Broncos fan base that got Mahomes-ed last week. ### Ja'Marr Chase Is Held Under 80 Yards Again Ja'Marr Chase is widely regarded as the best receiver in the NFL. A preseason [ESPN poll](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/%5F/id/49252915/ranking-nfl-top-10-wide-receivers-2026-execs-coaches-scouts) that surveyed league executives, coaches, and scouts ranked him as the top player at his position for the second straight year. One anonymous head coach claimed in that survey that Chase could "[break it for 80 at any time](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/%5F/id/49252915/ranking-nfl-top-10-wide-receivers-2026-execs-coaches-scouts)." And break it for 80 he has. Chase recorded 80-plus receiving yards in 17 of his last 24 games entering this season, a 70.8% rate. The market gives him a 48% chance to reach that mark on Sunday.  Based on historical stats alone, the market's verdict here is about as "bold" as it gets this week. Not only had Chase cleared 80 yards at a 70.8% clip in that 24-game span, but he averaged 100.1 receiving yards. Limit the sample to games Joe Burrow started—the fourth-best quarterback according to the [league survey](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/%5F/id/49315416/ranking-nfl-top-10-quarterbacks-2026-execs-coaches-scouts)—and Chase's average in that split jumps to 108.3 receiving yards. But the market isn't built on averages alone. There's a reason Tyler Shough's passing prop isn't set somewhere in the [400s](https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/%5F/id/4360689/type/nfl/year/2026) this week. It is pricing the game environment, and the market thinks a matchup against the Houston Texans, among other things, could keep Chase below his usual standard. [Pro Football Focus](https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-secondary-rankings-2026) ranked Houston's secondary and defensive line as the second- and third-best units, respectively, entering this season. The Texans allowed the fewest yards and sixth-fewest passing yards last season. In turn, the Cincinnati Bengals have just a 42% implied win probability this week. Underdog status points toward a pass-heavy script for the Bengals, but it also underscores just how stingy this Texans defense can be—at home, no less. Beyond the tough matchup, Chase is up against a negative trend of his own: slow starts. The Bengals are infamous for imposing a self-inflicted handicap at the start of the season. Cincinnati, despite being one of the league's juggernauts when healthy, had a 1-7 record across the first two weeks of the last four seasons entering 2026\. For Chase, that meant far less output than normal: he averaged 67.6 yards, a median of 46.5 yards, and cleared 80 yards in two of eight games in that split. The Bengals bucked the trend last week, winning the season opener against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 33-27\. Chase recorded 12 yards. Chase has a case to reach 80 yards this week. But if he finishes below that mark for the second straight game—something he did just once last season—call it a disappointment, a surprise, a nightmare for his fantasy managers. Just don't call it an upset. ### --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: Lane Kiffin Left Ole Miss. Now He Has to Go Back.](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/lane-kiffin-returns-to-oxford/)  ### Lane Kiffin Left Ole Miss. Now He Has to Go Back. [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/lane-kiffin-returns-to-oxford/) [Open article: UEFA Promised a More Competitive Champions League. The Odds Say It Delivered.](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/uefa-promised-a-more-competitive-champions-league-the-odds-say-it-delivered/)  ### UEFA Promised a More Competitive Champions League. The Odds Say It Delivered. [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/uefa-promised-a-more-competitive-champions-league-the-odds-say-it-delivered/) [Open article: Dancing with the Stars Gets Its Groove Back](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/dancing-with-the-stars-gets-its-groove-back/)  ### Dancing with the Stars Gets Its Groove Back [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/dancing-with-the-stars-gets-its-groove-back/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/bold-nfl-predictions-that-aren-t-so-bold/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/bold-nfl-predictions-that-aren-t-so-bold/"},"headline":"Bold NFL Predictions That Aren't So Bold","datePublished":"2026-09-18T21:01:07.547Z","dateModified":"2026-09-18T21:01:03.553Z","description":"Prediction markets are calling for fewer points, a Broncos recovery, and another muted performance from Chase in NFL Week 2.","url":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/bold-nfl-predictions-that-aren-t-so-bold/","keywords":[],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt1839c5dbbddf3563/6aacc19fbf6e64844bd1a616/GettyImages-2294881937.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Annie Nader","jobTitle":"Prediction Markets Analyst","url":"https://time.com/author/annie-nader/"}],"articleSection":"Prediction Markets","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt1839c5dbbddf3563/6aacc19fbf6e64844bd1a616/GettyImages-2294881937.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"GettyImages-2294881937.jpg","caption":"","creditText":"Michael Hickey—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/bold-nfl-predictions-that-aren-t-so-bold/","name":"Bold NFL Predictions That Aren't So Bold"}}]}] ```