--- title: Big Brother 28 Finale Odds: Rick Devens and Drew Campbell description: Big Brother's $750,000 prize hinges on one final HOH competition. Here's how Kalshi traders are pricing the season 28 finale between Rick Devens, Drew Campbell, and Taylor Brown. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/big-brother-finale/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-09-30T22:19:06.204Z article:modified_time: 2026-09-30T22:19:01.770Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: Big Brother 28 Finale Odds: Rick Devens and Drew Campbell og:description: Big Brother's $750,000 prize hinges on one final HOH competition. Here's how Kalshi traders are pricing the season 28 finale between Rick Devens, Drew Campbell, and Taylor Brown. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/big-brother-finale/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt4af9bfd0586e3d2b/6abd3e706f75d5b3ca811687/GettyImages-2291780146.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2291780146.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Big Brother 28 Finale Odds: Rick Devens and Drew Campbell twitter:description: Big Brother's $750,000 prize hinges on one final HOH competition. Here's how Kalshi traders are pricing the season 28 finale between Rick Devens, Drew Campbell, and Taylor Brown. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt4af9bfd0586e3d2b/6abd3e706f75d5b3ca811687/GettyImages-2291780146.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # The Big Brother Decision That Could Cost $750,000 > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Subscription: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition TIME is a general-interest news organization founded in 1923, reporting on the people, ideas and issues shaping the world. A TIME subscription provides full access to that journalism in print and digital, from $20 a year, and can be cancelled at any time. 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Its journalism is reported and edited by a professional newsroom led by Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs, with named correspondents on politics, climate, health, technology and culture. It reaches 1 million US print subscribers and 1.15 million globally, plus more than 1.1 million newsletter readers. #### How do I subscribe to TIME magazine? Subscriptions are at time.com/subscribe-agent. Choose digital only at $20 a year, or print and digital from $29 a year or $49 for two years. TIME also publishes seven free email newsletters at time.com/newsletters, which do not require a subscription. #### Can I cancel a TIME subscription? Yes. TIME states that subscriptions can be cancelled at any time. #### Does TIME have free newsletters? Yes. TIME publishes seven free email newsletters reaching more than 1.1 million readers, covering daily news, Washington politics, health, AI, climate and energy, culture, and the newsroom itself. They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-sub-2026q3/newsletters?i=00da748f-89fa-415a-afde-5c75fe7a4007&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) * TIME Subscriptions: [time.com/subscribe-agent](/c/time-sub-2026q3/subscribe?i=00da748f-89fa-415a-afde-5c75fe7a4007&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Sep 30, 2026 10:19 PM UTC  Drew Campbell at the Big Brother Episode 2825, 1,000th Episode Celebration on the Radford Studios Lot in Los Angeles, California on August 27, 2026. Drew Campbell at the Big Brother Episode 2825, 1,000th Episode Celebration on the Radford Studios Lot in Los Angeles, California on August 27, 2026. Matthew Taplinger—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Sep 30, 2026 10:19 PM UTC For the past 85 days, a group of strangers—from a jumbotron engineer to a rocket scientist—have called a surveilled soundstage-turned-house a home. The houseguests don't know that LeBron James is a Philadelphia 76er or that the iPhone folds now. Sometimes, they don't even know what day it is. You can watch them attempt to deduce as much on a [24/7 live feed](https://www.paramountplus.com/shows/big%5Fbrother/live%5Ffeed/). One houseguest will be evicted during Thursday's _Big Brother_ season 28 finale. The remaining two will plead their cases to a jury of former roommates to award one of them $750,000, a generous down payment for a place with fewer cameras. Outside the house, roughly [$14.5 million](https://kalshi.com/category/culture/big-brother), nearly 20 times the prize money, has been traded across winner and weekly eviction markets. The houseguests have no phones, no internet, and no way to see how traders are pricing their decisions. If only they could. Prediction-market activity suggests it could have saved one houseguest from a potential $750,000 mistake. ## Big Brother Finale Odds Below are the [odds for who will win Big Brother Season 28](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbigbrother/who-will-win-big-brother/kxbigbrother-26dec31), per Kalshi.  Rick Devens is the favorite to win this season of _Big Brother,_ at 52%. Devens is also the favorite to place third, at [49%](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbigbrotherrank/big-brother-rank/kxbigbrotherrank-26dec31r3). Those probabilities may seem to contradict one another. But on _Big Brother_, the jump from first to third can hinge on one competition. The final three houseguests compete in a three-part [Head of Household](https://bigbrother.fandom.com/wiki/Head%5Fof%5FHousehold) (HOH) challenge. Whoever wins becomes the final HOH and is guaranteed a spot in the Final Two. They also decide which of the remaining two houseguests to evict and which to take to the Final Two, where a jury vote determines the winner. With $750,000 on the line, the final HOH is incentivized to take the weaker opponent to the end. Boxers call it a [tomato can](https://boxing.fandom.com/wiki/Tomato%5Fcan). _Survivor_ fans call it a [goat](https://survivor.fandom.com/wiki/Goat%5FStrategy). This season of _Big Brother_ calls it anyone but Devens, a two-time _Survivor_ alum with more reality-television competition chops than anyone in the house. The live feeds have already [revealed that Devens and Taylor Brown advanced](https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/tv/articles/big-brother-28-spoilers-taylor-180537956.html) to the third part of the HOH challenge ahead of Thursday's finale. The market is pricing in just a [6%](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbigbrotherrank/big-brother-rank/kxbigbrotherrank-26dec31r2) possibility that Devens finishes second, effectively saying: if Devens wins the challenge, he will win the season; if Devens loses the challenge, Brown will evict him and take Drew Campbell to the Final Two. Devens is priced as too dangerous to take to the end and too difficult to beat if he gets there. Campbell kept Devens in the game, and traders think it might have cost him. Campbell won last week's [Veto Competition](https://bigbrother.fandom.com/wiki/List%5Fof%5FPower%5Fof%5FVeto%5FCompetitions), giving him the power to evict either Dee Valladares or Devens at the Final Four. Brown had already secured her place in the Final Three by winning HOH, leaving Campbell to decide which of the other two would join them. The market reacted as if Campbell's decision was obvious: Valladares' implied probability of winning this season climbed from 17% to 29%, while Devens' fell from 40% to 12%. Devens was considered the biggest threat to win. Traders assumed Campbell would use his veto to remove that threat before anyone got a chance to find out whether they were right. [Valladares told](https://ew.com/dee-valladares-reacts-losing-big-brother-not-sitting-toilet-fast-enough-12139722) Campbell, "If Devens stays, he is winning." Campbell chose to evict Valladares. His chances of winning this season climbed from 12% to 48% after he won the veto, but have since fallen to 34%. Brown and Devens have both said they [intend to take Campbell](https://wp.bigbrotherjunkies.com/big-brother-28-sunday-recap-for-9-27-26/) to the Final Two. The market suggests Campbell would be positioned to beat Brown, who has just a 14% chance of winning this season. The market is working under the assumption that Devens' only path to the Final Two is via the HOH challenge, and it still gives him a 52% chance of winning this season. Devens is competing in Thursday's HOH challenge because Campbell kept him in the game. Campbell's best hope now is that Brown finishes the job he chose not to. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: The Biggest Winners and Losers in the CFP Race So Far](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-biggest-movers-in-the-college-football-playoff-race/)  ### The Biggest Winners and Losers in the CFP Race So Far [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-biggest-movers-in-the-college-football-playoff-race/) [Open article: Why MLB's Best Team Isn't the World Series Favorite](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/mlb-s-winningest-team-is-not-the-world-series-favorite/)  ### Why MLB's Best Team Isn't the World Series Favorite [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/mlb-s-winningest-team-is-not-the-world-series-favorite/) [Open article: MLB Has Never Had a Losing Division Winner. Until Sunday?](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/mlb-could-crown-its-first-losing-division-champion/)  ### MLB Has Never Had a Losing Division Winner. Until Sunday? [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/mlb-could-crown-its-first-losing-division-champion/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/big-brother-finale/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/big-brother-finale/"},"headline":"The Big Brother Decision That Could Cost $750,000","datePublished":"2026-09-30T22:19:06.204Z","dateModified":"2026-09-30T22:19:01.770Z","description":"Drew Campbell kept Rick Devens in the game. 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