--- title: Apple Overtakes Nvidia in 2026 Most Valuable Company Odds description: Apple is favored to end 2026 as the world's most valuable company after Nvidia's sell-off. Here's how their market caps and Polymarket odds have shifted. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/apple-favored-to-finish-the-year-ahead-of-nvidia/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-11-10T23:08:01.999Z article:modified_time: 2026-11-10T23:08:02.249Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: Apple Overtakes Nvidia in 2026 Most Valuable Company Odds og:description: Apple is favored to end 2026 as the world's most valuable company after Nvidia's sell-off. Here's how their market caps and Polymarket odds have shifted. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/apple-favored-to-finish-the-year-ahead-of-nvidia/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt2df76f7692f4eecd/6af35d7846dffe3c87d9ee92/GettyImages-2304015506.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2304015506.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Apple Overtakes Nvidia in 2026 Most Valuable Company Odds twitter:description: Apple is favored to end 2026 as the world's most valuable company after Nvidia's sell-off. Here's how their market caps and Polymarket odds have shifted. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt2df76f7692f4eecd/6af35d7846dffe3c87d9ee92/GettyImages-2304015506.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # Nvidia Loses $903 Billion Lead Over Apple > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Subscription: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition TIME is a general-interest news organization founded in 1923, reporting on the people, ideas and issues shaping the world. A TIME subscription provides full access to that journalism in print and digital, from $20 a year, and can be cancelled at any time. 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Its journalism is reported and edited by a professional newsroom led by Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs, with named correspondents on politics, climate, health, technology and culture. It reaches 1 million US print subscribers and 1.15 million globally, plus more than 1.1 million newsletter readers. #### How do I subscribe to TIME magazine? Subscriptions are at time.com/subscribe-agent. Choose digital only at $20 a year, or print and digital from $29 a year or $49 for two years. TIME also publishes seven free email newsletters at time.com/newsletters, which do not require a subscription. #### Can I cancel a TIME subscription? Yes. TIME states that subscriptions can be cancelled at any time. #### Does TIME have free newsletters? Yes. TIME publishes seven free email newsletters reaching more than 1.1 million readers, covering daily news, Washington politics, health, AI, climate and energy, culture, and the newsroom itself. They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-sub-2026q3/newsletters?i=89872fb5-659a-41cd-b0a1-582bb0f68074&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) * TIME Subscriptions: [time.com/subscribe-agent](/c/time-sub-2026q3/subscribe?i=89872fb5-659a-41cd-b0a1-582bb0f68074&cr=time-sub-2026q3-v1) by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Nov 10, 2026 11:08 PM UTC  Wall Street stocks dipped early Tuesday following disappointing US inflation data as Nvidia shares continued to retreat due to a scandal involving CEO Jensen Huang. Market statistics and numbers are displayed on a screen on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) New York City on November 10, 2026. Wall Street stocks dipped early Tuesday following disappointing US inflation data as Nvidia shares continued to retreat due to a scandal involving CEO Jensen Huang. Market statistics and numbers are displayed on a screen on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) New York City on November 10, 2026. Angela Weiss—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Nov 10, 2026 11:08 PM UTC Apple's stock has risen 4.5% since October 6\. Its probability of finishing the year as the world's most valuable public company has climbed from 8% to 83% on Polymarket in that span. The stock has done well. Not _that_ well. Monday's tech rally was the Wall Street equivalent of the Ewing Theory: [the Nasdaq surged 2.7%](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-monday-november-9-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-nvidia-090535419.html) as [Nvidia fell 4.3% and shed $190 billion in market value](https://apnews.com/article/nvidia-china-ai-jensen-huang-affair-1f060e52b308cb2c649807518d5081e2). The sell-off came one day after Nvidia's board announced it was [opening an investigation](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/08/technology/nvidia-investigation-jensen-huang-china.html) into CEO Jensen Huang's relationship with a suspected Chinese spy and amid a broader retreat from AI stocks. Nvidia has now lost roughly [$1.5 trillion](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-11-09-2026/card/nvidia-s-stock-selloff-by-the-numbers-6gQBz8lffthf5RcrN8oi) in market value over the past 24 trading sessions through Monday, a record loss in such a span for any U.S. company, according to [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-11-09-2026/card/nvidia-s-stock-selloff-by-the-numbers-6gQBz8lffthf5RcrN8oi). Apple and Nvidia have seen a nearly $1.7 trillion reversal in their relative market values over the past 24 trading sessions. Now prediction-market traders think Nvidia, which was priced as a near shoo-in to finish the year as the world's most valuable company five weeks ago, might not be done sliding down the market-cap rankings. ## 2026 Most Valuable Company Odds Below are the odds for [which company will be the largest at the end of 2026](https://polymarket.com/event/largest-company-end-of-december-2026), per Polymarket.  This market opened on November 12, 2025\. Nvidia had been favored to finish 2026 as the world's largest company by market capitalization on 355 of 358 days through November 4, including on every day from February 6 to November 4\. After closing at an all-time high of $239.24 on October 6, Nvidia had an 89% chance of finishing the year on top. The New York Times reported on October 29 that Huang was "[seen as a target of a potential Chinese spy plot](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/29/us/politics/nvidia-china-jensen-huang-trump.html)." Apple overtook Nvidia as the world's most valuable company the next day, with Bloomberg reporting that investors are seeking "[the perceived safety of the iPhone maker amid concerns about artificial intelligence spending](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/apple-overtakes-nvidia-become-world-202839510.html)." Traders responded to the shifting valuations but still favored Nvidia at 54% over Apple at 43%. The past two weeks brought the kind of extremes it takes to upend a consensus shaped by more than $10 million in trading volume. Apple's stock hit an [all-time intraday high](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/apple-above-5-trillion-first-131336874.html) of $355.38 on November 5 before closing at $350.69 on Monday. Nvidia's stock is down 25.3% since October 6 and 16.4% since October 29\. [One shareholder filed a class-action lawsuit](https://apnews.com/article/nvidia-china-ai-jensen-huang-affair-1f060e52b308cb2c649807518d5081e2) against the company Monday, alleging it misled investors about Huang's relationship with the suspected Chinese spy. Here's how their closing market caps and Polymarket probabilities (in parentheses) have shifted: **October 6** * Nvidia: **$5.777 trillion (89%)** * Apple: **$4.874 trillion (8%)** **October 30** * Nvidia: **$4.941 trillion (54%)** * Apple: **$5.008 trillion (43%)** **November 9** * Nvidia: **$4.314 trillion (15%)** * Apple: **$5.096 trillion (83%)** In 34 days, or 24 trading sessions, Nvidia's $903 billion advantage became Apple's $782 billion advantage—a $1.685 trillion reversal in their relative positions. [Microsoft briefly overtook Nvidia](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-cpi-inflation-11-10-2026/card/microsoft-is-on-pace-to-surpass-nvidia-as-world-s-third-largest-company-1Ss4CPMoaFNwy5hOqdL8) as the world's second-most valuable company on Tuesday before closing [2.7%](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-cpi-inflation-11-10-2026/card/microsoft-is-on-pace-to-surpass-nvidia-as-world-s-third-largest-company-1Ss4CPMoaFNwy5hOqdL8) shy of the chipmaker's market cap. Polymarket traders favor Nvidia to finish the year as the [second-largest company](https://polymarket.com/event/2nd-largest-company-end-of-december-2026) at 51%, though Microsoft's chances have climbed from 3.3% to 27% in the past 10 days. Apple's [stock](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history/?ltr=1&period1=1767306333&period2=1794349524&frequency=1d) has risen 28.2% year to date through Tuesday's close. Shareholders sitting on unrealized gains in taxable accounts may prefer to wait until January to sell, shifting those gains into the next tax year—and potentially discouraging year-end selling ahead of Polymarket's December 31 cutoff. Apple has finished as the world's most valuable company in 11 of the past 14 years. All it took was a $1.7 trillion reversal for that to seem predictable again. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: Joe Burrow Is Making a Pass at History](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/joe-burrow-mvp/)  ### Joe Burrow Is Making a Pass at History [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/joe-burrow-mvp/) [Open article: NASCAR's Next Champion Could Finish Last](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/nascar-cup-championship/)  ### NASCAR's Next Champion Could Finish Last [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/nascar-cup-championship/) [Open article: The Internet Has Its Own Coachella Lineup](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/cochella-headliners-odds/)  ### The Internet Has Its Own Coachella Lineup [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/cochella-headliners-odds/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/apple-favored-to-finish-the-year-ahead-of-nvidia/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/apple-favored-to-finish-the-year-ahead-of-nvidia/"},"headline":"Nvidia Loses $903 Billion Lead Over Apple","datePublished":"2026-11-10T23:08:01.999Z","dateModified":"2026-11-10T23:08:02.249Z","description":"A $1.7 trillion market cap reversal has made Apple the favorite to end 2026 as the world's most valuable company. 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