--- title: Race to IPO: Anthropic vs. OpenAI description: As Anthropic moves toward public markets before OpenAI, its restricted Mythos model has become both a selling point and a risk. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/anthropic-moves-the-ai-race-to-wall-street/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-06-04T13:21:08.589Z article:modified_time: 2026-06-04T13:21:00.151Z article:section: Prediction Markets og:title: Race to IPO: Anthropic vs. OpenAI og:description: As Anthropic moves toward public markets before OpenAI, its restricted Mythos model has become both a selling point and a risk. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/anthropic-moves-the-ai-race-to-wall-street/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt4bfdbcddbfc5724e/6a1fc6873e142e84ed0f6257/GettyImages-2278092636.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2278092636.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Race to IPO: Anthropic vs. OpenAI twitter:description: As Anthropic moves toward public markets before OpenAI, its restricted Mythos model has become both a selling point and a risk. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt4bfdbcddbfc5724e/6a1fc6873e142e84ed0f6257/GettyImages-2278092636.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # Anthropic Moves the AI Race to Wall Street > Sponsored content. 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It covers the reporting, scoops and conversations shaping AI and the decisions facing leaders. #### Where can I get reported AI news rather than commentary? In the Loop is TIME's AI newsletter, built on original reporting and access to the people building and governing AI. It publishes Tuesdays and Fridays and is free at time.com/newsletters. #### Who writes TIME's In the Loop? Harry Booth, a tech reporter at TIME, writes In the Loop. #### Is In the Loop free? Yes. In the Loop is free at time.com/newsletters. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-loop-2026q3/newsletters?i=3f5dfd75-a863-46ba-9268-81d0689c38ed&cr=time-nl-loop-2026q3-v1) by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Jun 4, 2026 1:21 PM UTC  Anthropic secures $65 billion in funding at a $965 billion post-money valuation in its latest funding round, potentially marking the AI startup's final private fundraising before entering public markets. Anthropic secures $65 billion in funding at a $965 billion post-money valuation in its latest funding round, potentially marking the AI startup's final private fundraising before entering public markets. Nikolas Kokovlis—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Jun 4, 2026 1:21 PM UTC Forty-seven billion dollars in annualized revenue. A [reported](https://www.anthropic.com/news/series-h) $965 billion valuation. A Pentagon deal turned "[supply chain risk](https://apnews.com/article/pentagon-ai-anthropic-claude-dario-amodei-openai-d4608c7dd139245ac8ad94d5427c505a)" designation—and a [lawsuit](https://www.axios.com/2026/03/09/anthropic-sues-pentagon-supply-chain-risk-label) to fight it. [Anthropic](https://time.com/collection/time100-most-influential-companies/2026/anthropic/), the company behind Claude, has spent the past year navigating the legal, political, and business pressures that follow becoming one of the fastest-growing companies in artificial intelligence. And, now, it appears to be moving toward an IPO before rival OpenAI. On June 1, Anthropic announced it had confidentially [filed for an initial public offering](https://www.anthropic.com/news/confidential-draft-s1-sec) (IPO) with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Anthropic shared in a [statement](https://www.anthropic.com/news/confidential-draft-s1-sec) that "the proposed initial public offering will depend on market conditions and other factors," giving the company the option to go public after the SEC completes its review. The move comes ahead of what could be a blockbuster stretch for public listings, with SpaceX expected to debut on the Nasdaq on June 12 and OpenAI [reportedly nearing](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/20/technology/openai-ipo.html) its own filing. Together, SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic would create one of the most consequential IPO waves Wall Street has ever absorbed, potentially introducing [$4 trillion](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/06/01/can-the-stockmarket-swallow-anthropic-spacex-and-openai) in private-market value into public markets. For OpenAI and Anthropic, it is a test even their systems cannot answer—whether the AI boom's enormous costs and private-market valuations will hold up in public. The first ticker symbol matters. By moving toward a listing before OpenAI, Anthropic would get the chance to define the public version of the AI race: its growth, risks, customer base, and ability to capitalize on early market enthusiasm. It also gives investors a benchmark for what a leading AI company is worth outside the private fundraising machine—a number that would not just shape portfolios, but how the public interprets the value and risks of the AI boom. It's fitting that traders have turned to prediction-market exchanges to answer the question neither chatbot can: which company will confirm an IPO first? ## The Race to IPO Here's a look at the odds for when Anthropic will officially confirm an IPO, per [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxipoanthropic/anthropic-ipo/kxipoanthropic-date). Under the market's rules, an IPO is considered "confirmed" if the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective, the IPO is priced, or a ticker is assigned to the company.  Anthropic's odds to confirm an IPO before November 1, 2026 spiked from a 67.7% to 92.5% implied probability in the immediate aftermath of Monday's filing announcement, with that target date currently priced at an 88% probability. The timeline is expected to look less like SpaceX's two-month, supersonic IPO process and more like a fall runway, with both Kalshi traders and financial experts pointing toward October or November. The obstacles, including a near trillion-dollar valuation and a [copyright infringement lawsuit](https://www.npr.org/2025/09/05/nx-s1-5529404/anthropic-settlement-authors-copyright-ai) to defend, could complicate the process, but the most uncertain question is the very one Anthropic has kept out of view: Mythos. Anthropic describes Mythos as a "[frontier cybersecurity model](https://www.anthropic.com/glasswing)," one it says has "already found thousands of high-severity vulnerabilities, including some in every major operating system and web browser." The company has yet to make the model available to the public, citing the risk its cybersecurity capabilities could pose if broadly released. Mythos presents Anthropic with a double-edged disclosure problem: it shows how valuable Anthropic's technology could become, while also underscoring why that technology—and the opacity surrounding it—may draw scrutiny.  On April 7, the day Anthropic announced Mythos, the market gave it a 76.7% implied probability of confirming an IPO before OpenAI. By May 20, after reports suggested an OpenAI filing was imminent, Anthropic's odds had dropped to 22.1%. Now, in the wake of Monday's filing and with no word from OpenAI, Anthropic commands a 78% chance of reaching the market before its rival. Anthropic and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman have not hidden the [tensions](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/07/technology/openai-anthropic-pentagon-rivalry.html) between their camps. For Dario Amodei, Daniela Amodei, and the five other former OpenAI employees turned Anthropic founders, beating their old company to market would let Anthropic tell the defining markets story of the AI race on its own terms, before OpenAI gets the chance. Mythos could determine whether the company is writing that story, or merely pitching it. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: Prediction Markets Doubt Anthropic's November IPO](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/prediction-markets-doubt-anthropic-s-ipo-timing/)  ### Prediction Markets Doubt Anthropic's November IPO [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/prediction-markets-doubt-anthropic-s-ipo-timing/) [Open article: Trinidad Chambliss Won More Than a Revenge Game](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/from-division-backup-to-heisman-favorite/)  ### Trinidad Chambliss Won More Than a Revenge Game [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/from-division-backup-to-heisman-favorite/) [Open article: Bold NFL Week 2 Predictions That Aren't So Bold](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/bold-nfl-predictions-that-aren-t-so-bold/)  ### Bold NFL Week 2 Predictions That Aren't So Bold [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/bold-nfl-predictions-that-aren-t-so-bold/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/anthropic-moves-the-ai-race-to-wall-street/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/anthropic-moves-the-ai-race-to-wall-street/"},"headline":"Anthropic Moves the AI Race to Wall Street","datePublished":"2026-06-04T13:21:08.589Z","dateModified":"2026-06-04T13:21:00.151Z","description":"If Mythos is as powerful as Anthropic suggests, it gives the company a story worth telling first—but also a question investors may want answered.","url":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/anthropic-moves-the-ai-race-to-wall-street/","keywords":[],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt4bfdbcddbfc5724e/6a1fc6873e142e84ed0f6257/GettyImages-2278092636.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Annie Nader","jobTitle":"Prediction Markets Analyst","url":"https://time.com/author/annie-nader/"}],"articleSection":"Prediction Markets","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt4bfdbcddbfc5724e/6a1fc6873e142e84ed0f6257/GettyImages-2278092636.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"GettyImages-2278092636.jpg","caption":"","creditText":"Nikolas Kokovlis—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/anthropic-moves-the-ai-race-to-wall-street/","name":"Anthropic Moves the AI Race to Wall Street"}}]}] ```