--- description: The 2026 NFL Draft begins Thursday with a clear No. 1 pick but uncertainty beyond it. Here's the first-round order, odds, and key storylines to watch. title: 2026 NFL Draft: First-Round Order, Odds, and Predictions image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt7b2ea6d671d71432/69ea48cf835520c1b15b3c7a/GettyImages-2264341296.jpg?branch=production&width=3840&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # 2026 NFL Draft Preview: Odds and Key Storylines by [Annie Nader](/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Apr 23, 2026 7:48 PM CUT  Fernando Mendoza #QB11 of Indiana speaks during a press conference at the 2026 NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, on Feb. 27, 2026. Fernando Mendoza #QB11 of Indiana speaks during a press conference at the 2026 NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, on Feb. 27, 2026.Cooper Neill—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Apr 23, 2026 7:48 PM CUT The NFL Draft is billed as a three-day talent infusion—a place where lifelong dreams are realized in perfectly packaged ready-for-the-socials clips. In practice, though, it's a high-stakes clash among 32 front offices trying to answer the same question: how do you turn one decision in April into playoff wins in January? The [2026 NFL Draft](https://www.nfl.com/draft "undefined") kicks off Thursday at 8 p.m. ET and should prove suspenseful, even if there's little mystery at the very top of the board. Heisman-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza is viewed as the [consensus No. 1 overall pick](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/%5F/id/48530106/fernando-mendoza-consensus-no-1-2026-nfl-draft-pick-indiana-hoosiers-las-vegas-raiders "undefined") by league insiders and prediction markets alike. Barring any late surprises, Mendoza is expected to land with the Las Vegas Raiders. After that, the chaos begins. To make sense of the key storylines shaping Thursday night, it helps to start with the first-round order and the latest draft odds. ## NFL Draft Order The Las Vegas Raiders will open draft night on the clock. Notably, six teams own multiple first-round picks: the New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, New York Giants, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, and Dallas Cowboys. The full first-round draft order: | 1\. Las Vegas Raiders | | --------------------------------- | | 2\. New York Jets | | 3\. Arizona Cardinals | | 4\. Tennessee Titans | | 5\. New York Giants | | 6\. Cleveland Browns | | 7\. Washington Commanders | | 8\. New Orleans Saints | | 9\. Kansas City Chiefs | | 10\. New York Giants (via CIN) | | 11\. Miami Dolphins | | 12\. Dallas Cowboys | | 13\. Los Angeles Rams (via ATL) | | 14\. Baltimore Ravens | | 15\. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | | 16\. New York Jets (via IND) | | 17\. Detroit Lions | | 18\. Minnesota Vikings | | 19\. Carolina Panthers | | 20\. Dallas Cowboys (via GB) | | 21\. Pittsburgh Steelers | | 22\. Los Angeles Chargers | | 23\. Philadelphia Eagles | | 24\. Cleveland Browns (via JAX) | | 25\. Chicago Bears | | 26\. Buffalo Bills | | 27\. San Francisco 49ers | | 28\. Houston Texans | | 29\. Kansas City Chiefs (via LAR) | | 30\. Miami Dolphins (via DEN) | | 31\. New England Patriots | | 32\. Seattle Seahawks | ## NFL Draft Odds ### Which Teams Will Select a Quarterback in the First Round of the NFL Draft? Quarterbacks rule the early rounds of the NFL Draft. After all, rostering a franchise quarterback is synonymous with Super Bowl hopes. Teams across the league are constantly in search of the next Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, often paying a premium for the position on draft day. However, if sportsbooks are any indication, this year's quarterback class looks underwhelming. Mendoza is seen as the consensus No. 1 overall pick, but he could end up being the sole quarterback drafted in the opening round. [FanDuel Sportsbook](https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/ "undefined") currently lists the under on 1.5 quarterbacks selected in the first round at +120 odds. If fewer than two quarterbacks are drafted in the opening round, this would be one of the thinnest first rounds for signal-callers in recent memory. Over the past decade, an average of 3.5 quarterbacks have heard Roger Goodell call their name in the first round. The [2024 class](https://www.nfl.com/news/ranking-top-10-players-from-loaded-2024-nfl-draft-class-jayden-daniels-or-drake-maye-at-no-1 "undefined") was particularly loaded, with Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr., J.J. McCarthy, and Bo Nix all coming off the board within the first 12 picks. This year's draft could mark just the second time since 2014 that only one quarterback is selected in the first round. Outside of Mendoza, Ty Simpson is the lone credible first-round option at quarterback. Where might Simpson land? ### Which Team Will Draft Ty Simpson? ###  Simpson spent most of his collegiate career at the University of Alabama playing behind Jalen Milroe before stepping into a starting role for the Crimson Tide in 2025\. Though Alabama's season ultimately ended in a lopsided playoff defeat at the hands of Mendoza and Indiana University, [Simpson threw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8CJrQxtBjY "undefined") for an impressive 3,567 yards, 28 touchdowns, and just five interceptions along the way. Now, he profiles as a fringe first-round option. The Arizona Cardinals and New York Jets are considered the most likely landing spots for Simpson. Arizona and New York share two key traits: neither franchise has a firm answer at quarterback, and both teams are set to make multiple selections within the first 34 picks. That mix of desperation and flexibility puts Simpson in play for both teams. On [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/ "undefined"), the [Ty Simpson draft market](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnfldraftteam/pro-football-team-draft/kxnfldraftteam-26tsim "undefined") has generated over $290k in volume, and it currently gives the Cardinals a 60% chance to select Simpson. In his latest [NFL mock draft](https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2026/story/%5F/id/48480079/2026-nfl-mock-draft-seven-rounds-257-picks-predictions-jordan-reid-fits "undefined"), ESPN's [Jordan Reid](https://x.com/Jordan%5FReid "undefined") projects Arizona to take Simpson in the early second round at pick No. 34, noting the team could even consider trading up into the late first round to secure him. In a class short on viable quarterbacks, Simpson has emerged as one of the main talking points ahead of the NFL Draft. ### Which Team Will Draft Jeremiyah Love? ###  Jeremiyah Love’s talent is undeniable. Where he lands on draft night is debatable. Arguably the flashiest prospect in this class, Love spent his third and final campaign at Notre Dame [mowing down any defender](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVLrDQIHquQ "undefined") who dared to stand in his lane. The running back collected 1,372 rushing yards and 18 rushing touchdowns on absurd 6.9 yards per carry efficiency last season, ultimately earning a [Heisman Finalist](https://fightingirish.com/jeremiyah-love-named-heisman-finalist/ "undefined") nod. Love carries -180 [odds to be drafted before the fifth overall pick](https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/football/nfl---draft-markets "undefined"), per FanDuel. It’s rarefied air for the position. Since 2016, only five running backs have been selected in the top-10 picks. The names may sound familiar: Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Bijan Robinson. However, the historical lack of first-round running backs reinforces what we already know: the position isn't viewed as a premium commodity around the league. Often plagued by high injury rates and shorter-than-desired career spans, running backs tend to make a bigger impact in fantasy football than in the real world. But even with positional volatility at play, the markets are leaning toward the Tennessee Titans drafting Love with the No. 4 overall pick. [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnfldraftteam/pro-football-team-draft/kxnfldraftteam-26jlov "undefined") currently assigns that outcome a 34% probability. The chance to pair young skill players Cam Ward and Wan’Dale Robinson with Love may prove too tempting for the Titans to pass up. Coming off a rare season where a running back was awarded the Super Bowl MVP, teams such as Tennessee may be more willing than ever to bet on explosive playmakers. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: LeBron's 76ers Decision Stuns a $230 Million Market](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/lebron-james-signs-with-76ers-blindsiding-a-230-million-market/)  ### LeBron's 76ers Decision Stuns a $230 Million Market [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/lebron-james-signs-with-76ers-blindsiding-a-230-million-market/) [Open article: The Red Sox Are MLB's Biggest Market Mover](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-15-straight-wins-repriced-the-red-sox/)  ### The Red Sox Are MLB's Biggest Market Mover [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/how-15-straight-wins-repriced-the-red-sox/) [Open article: The Odyssey Conquers the Box Office](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-odyssey-sails-toward-box-office-history/)  ### The Odyssey Conquers the Box Office [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-odyssey-sails-toward-box-office-history/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/2026-nfl-draft-preview-odds-and-key-storylines/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/2026-nfl-draft-preview-odds-and-key-storylines/"},"headline":"2026 NFL Draft Preview: Odds and Key Storylines","datePublished":"2026-04-23T19:48:15.092Z","dateModified":"2026-05-19T07:41:25.782Z","description":"The 2026 NFL Draft opens with Fernando Mendoza all but locked in at No. 1 and rising buzz around Ty Simpson and Jeremiyah Love. 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