--- title: 2026 Could Become Hottest Year on Record as El Niño Strengthens description: Polymarket now gives 2026 a 66% chance to become the hottest year in NASA's global temperature record as a potential super El Niño strengthens. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/2026-is-now-favored-to-become-the-hottest-year-on-record/ author: Annie Nader article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-08-12T22:14:04.762Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-12T22:13:52.580Z og:title: 2026 Could Become Hottest Year on Record as El Niño Strengthens og:description: Polymarket now gives 2026 a 66% chance to become the hottest year in NASA's global temperature record as a potential super El Niño strengthens. og:url: https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/2026-is-now-favored-to-become-the-hottest-year-on-record/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blta92b8e376bf86c8d/6a7be19a5798c926db5a3c80/GettyImages-2288110378.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 675 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2288110378.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: 2026 Could Become Hottest Year on Record as El Niño Strengthens twitter:description: Polymarket now gives 2026 a 66% chance to become the hottest year in NASA's global temperature record as a potential super El Niño strengthens. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blta92b8e376bf86c8d/6a7be19a5798c926db5a3c80/GettyImages-2288110378.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created independently from the TIME editorial staff.  * [Prediction Market](/partner-content/prediction-markets/) # 2026 Is Now Favored to Become the Hottest Year on Record by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Aug 12, 2026 10:14 PM UTC  A view of heat warning sign at Mesquite Flat Sand Dunes as the thermometer that shows 128°F (53°C) at Furnace Creek Visitor Center in Death Valley National Park of California, United States on August 2, 2026. A view of heat warning sign at Mesquite Flat Sand Dunes as the thermometer that shows 128°F (53°C) at Furnace Creek Visitor Center in Death Valley National Park of California, United States on August 2, 2026.Tayfun Coskun—Getty Images by [Annie Nader](https://time.com/author/annie-nader/) Prediction Markets Analyst Aug 12, 2026 10:14 PM UTC July was the [hottest month on record](https://time.com/article/2026/08/11/julys-record-breaking-heat/) in the contiguous United States. Though 2026 ranked third-warmest globally through June, the latest forecast points to it finishing as the hottest year on record. If you've given up on cracking a window for a late-night reprieve, you may already know where July's record was born: while you were sleeping—or trying to. Overnight minimum temperatures were 3.7°F above average in the Lower 48, making July the warmest month on record for average low temperatures, according to the [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202607). [Research shows](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2012gl052459) that unusually warm nights are a hallmark of human-caused [climate change](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/contiguous-u-s-broke-its-record-for-hottest-month-ever-in-july-noaa-says). The [previous record](https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/08/the-u-s-just-had-its-hottest-month-in-recorded-history-surpassing-dust-bowl-record/) for the hottest month in the contiguous United States was set during the peak of the Dust Bowl summer in 1936\. Globally, the first six months of 2026 were about 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, one-tenth of a degree below the [Paris Agreement](https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement)'s goal of limiting long-term warming to 1.5°C. Now, the Pacific is threatening to push 2026 across that threshold. In May, the [Climate Prediction Center](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis%5Fmonitoring/lanina/enso%5Fevolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf) projected an 82% chance that an [El Niño](https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/14/weather/super-el-nino-climate) would emerge by July. The climate pattern, marked by unusually warm Pacific Ocean waters that can push global temperatures higher, has since arrived and is being characterized as a potential "[super](https://time.com/article/2026/04/10/super-el-nino-2026-what-to-know/)" El Niño. Of the 667 model runs from 14 modeling groups analyzed by Carbon Brief, 91% project that this will be the [strongest El Niño event](https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-rapidly-developing-el-nino-raises-chance-of-record-warm-2026) on record. Driven by the developing El Niño, climate models and prediction markets have converged on the same ominous forecast: what looked like a long shot this spring is now the likeliest outcome—a record-hot 2026. ## **2026 Is Projected to Be the Hottest Year on Record** Below are the odds for where 2026 will rank among the hottest years on record, per [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-2026-rank-among-the-hottest-years-on-record). The market will resolve based on data from [NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://science.nasa.gov/earth/explore/earth-indicators/global-temperature/&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1779917506501348&usg=AOvVaw2SHC3yiXJ-zBMepyD-2b5P), which has been tracking global temperatures since 1880.  [When we checked in with this market on May 28](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/europe-s-heat-wave-fuels-fears-of-a-record-hot-year/), traders gave this year a 31% chance of becoming the hottest year on record. Less than three months later, that figure has more than doubled to 66%. Each climate agency maintains its own global temperature record. Since annual rankings can be separated by mere hundredths of a degree, different agencies may reach different conclusions about which year takes the top spot. Here, Polymarket has named a single arbiter: NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. The market is not betting on where every climate agency will rank 2026, only where NASA will. And right now, the market and the model are in lockstep: Carbon Brief gives 2026 a [65%](https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-rapidly-developing-el-nino-raises-chance-of-record-warm-2026) chance of setting a record in NASA's dataset. That 65% probability makes sense when you look at how the forecast has warmed over the summer. In April, [Carbon Brief's central estimate](https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-strong-el-nino-puts-2026-on-track-for-second-warmest-year) put 2026 at about 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels—a figure that would have tied the 2024 record in NASA's dataset. Its latest estimate from July 24 climbed to 1.51°C. Across the six major temperature datasets it tracks, Carbon Brief's aggregate modeling now puts the odds of a record-hot year at 35%, up from just 7% in March. El Niño may peak in 2026, but its full [warming impact](https://bsky.app/profile/zekehausfather.com/post/3mqz7dlrtmo23) may not hit the thermometer until next year: [Carbon Brief estimates](https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-rapidly-developing-el-nino-raises-chance-of-record-warm-2026) that 2027 will be 1.71°C above pre-industrial levels. Traders are bracing for NASA's temperature index to rank 2026 as the hottest year on record. That title may already be on borrowed time. --- ## Read more from Prediction Markets [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/) [Open article: Bears Without Borders](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/bears-without-borders-is-chicago-s-team-moving-to-indiana/)  ### Bears Without Borders [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/bears-without-borders-is-chicago-s-team-moving-to-indiana/) [Open article: A Fake Report Sent Westbrook to Tel Aviv. He Retired the Next Day.](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/online-hoax-sent-russell-westbrook-to-tel-aviv-he-retired-the-next-day/)  ### A Fake Report Sent Westbrook to Tel Aviv. He Retired the Next Day. [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/online-hoax-sent-russell-westbrook-to-tel-aviv-he-retired-the-next-day/) [Open article: The Favorites to Headline the 2027 Super Bowl Halftime Show](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nfl-s-biggest-roster-decision-has-nothing-to-do-with-football/)  ### The Favorites to Headline the 2027 Super Bowl Halftime Show [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/the-nfl-s-biggest-roster-decision-has-nothing-to-do-with-football/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/2026-is-now-favored-to-become-the-hottest-year-on-record/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/prediction-markets/2026-is-now-favored-to-become-the-hottest-year-on-record/"},"headline":"2026 Is Now Favored to Become the Hottest Year on Record","datePublished":"2026-08-12T22:14:04.762Z","dateModified":"2026-08-12T22:13:52.580Z","description":"The contiguous U.S. just endured its hottest month on record. 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